France and and Turkey reported to boost bilateral investment and trade ties

    Reuters reported that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and French President Emmanuel Macron spoke by phone today. And they talked about developing economic and trade ties and boosting bilateral investment. Macron also told Erdogan that stability in Turkey is important to France. Finance Ministers of the two countries will meet very soon.

    Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak held a conference call with thousands of investors and economists. There he tried to assured that the government fully understood and recognized all its domestic challenges. And he insisted that the country’s bank were healthy and strong. And, the country would emerge stronger from the currency crisis. Albayrak is Erdogan’s son-in-law.

    Australia NAB business condition dropped sharply from record high, confidence eased

      Australia NAB business confidence dropped another 2 pts to 7 in March, down from 9. Business conditions dropped 6 pts from February’s record high at 20 to 14. That’s 3 points lower than January’s 17.

      Nonetheless, NAB noted in the release that “conditions remain well above average, with reasonably broad based strength across industries although retail continues to lag.” The historical average is at 5.5 and unchanged in trend terms.

      “Business confidence eased again and is now only just above its long-term average, although leading indicators remain at solid levels, as is the employment index.” “The survey was conducted shortly after US President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on at least $50 billion of Chinese imports, which may have affected sentiment.”

      Regarding inflation, “final product price inflation remains muted and retail prices declined. However, purchase cost growth has been moving higher since late 2016 providing a tentative sign of inflationary pressure.”

      On wages, “labour cost (wage bill) growth moderated after rising the previous month.”

      Full release here.

      Italian President Mattarella called meeting of political leaders after getting Prime Minster nomination

        Italian President Sergio Mattarella called the leaders of the lower and upper houses of the parliament for a meeting today. That came after meeting with anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and far-right League, who have agreed on a deal to form a coalition government.

        5-Star leader Luigi Di Maio said after meeting with Mattarella that Giuseppe Conte, a law professor but a political novice, “will be the prime minister of a political government”. Maio hailed that Conte is “a person that can carry out the government contract” and he’s “proud” of this choice. Leader of the League Matto Salvini also confirmed the name.

        For now, it’s uncertain whether Mattarella will appoint Conte as the Prime Minister, or he’d prefer a more high-profile figure.

        Eurozone GDP grew 0.1% qoq, 1.9% yoy in Q4,

          Eurozone GDP grew 0.1% qoq in Q4, better than expectation of -0.2% qoq. Comparing to the same quarter a year ago, GDP rose 1.9% yoy. EU GDP was flat qoq in Q4, up 1.8% yoy. Annual growth in 2022 was 3.5% in Eurozone and 3.6% in EU.

          Among the Member States for which data are available for the fourth quarter of 2022, Ireland (+3.5%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Latvia (+0.3%), Spain and Portugal (both +0.2%). The highest declines were recorded in Lithuania (-1.7%) as well as in Austria (-0.7%) and Sweden (-0.6%).

          The year-on-year growth rates were positive for all countries except for Sweden (-0.6%) and Lithuania (-0.4%).

          Full release here.

          US CPI slowed to 0.3%, core CPI dropped to 1.4%

            US CPI dropped -0.8% mom in April, versus expectation of -0.7% mom. That’s the largest monthly decline since December 2008. Core CPI dropped -0.4% mom versus expectation of -0.2%. That’s also the largest monthly decline since record started in 1957.

            Annually, CPI slowed to 0.3% yoy, down from 1.5% yoy, missed expectation of 0.8% yoy. The year-over-year rate was smallest since October 2015. Core CPI slowed to 1.4% yoy, down from 2.1% yoy, missed expectation of 1.7% yoy. It’s the smallest increase since April 2011.

            Full release here.

            New Zealand imports tumbled in Aug, exports showed contrasting movement

              New Zealand exports rose 8.6% yoy in NZD 4.4B in August. Imports, on the other hand, dropped sharply by -16% yoy to NZD 4.8B. The monthly trade balance was a deficit of NZD -353M, slightly larger than expectations.

              Imports were down from all top trading partners, including China, EU, Australia, USA and Japan. But there were contrasting movements in exports, up to China, USA and EU, but down to Australia and Japan.

              Full release here.

              Eurozone Sentix investor confidence dropped to 16.9, still a mid-cycle slowdown

                Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped to 16.9 in October, down from 19.6, missed expectation of 19.0. That’s the third decline in a row and the lowest level since April. Current Situation Index dropped from 30.8 to 26.3. Expectations index dropped from 9.0 to 8.0, fifth decline in a row, lowest since May 2020.

                Sentix said, “Autumn revival fails to materialize for the time being”. It added, “so far, the criteria for a mere ‘mid-cycle slowdown’ have still been met. It remains crucial that the expectations do not fall below the zero line. For then a stronger slump in economic output would be expected – a trend reversal would then be in the offing.”

                Full release here.

                Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 29.7, GDP contracting near to -10% annualized

                  Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 26.4 in March, down from February’s 52.6. PMI Composite was finalized at 29.7, own from February’s 51.6. that’s the biggest single monthly fall, as well as a survey record low. Looking at some member states, Germany PMI Composite dropped to 35.0, France to 28.9, Spain to 26.7, Italy to 20.2, all record lows.

                  Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: ” The data indicate that the eurozone economy is already contracting at an annualised rate approaching 10%, with worse inevitably to come in the near future… No countries are escaping the severe downturn in business activity, but the especially steep decline in of Italy’s service sector PMI to just 17.4 likely gives a taste of things to come for other countries as closures and lockdowns become more prevalent and more strictly enforced in coming months… The ultimate economic cost of the COVID-19 outbreak cannot be accurately estimated until we get more clarity on the duration and scale of the pandemic.”

                  Full releaes here.

                  Fed’s Collins: Bringing down inflation will require more time

                    Boston Fed President Susan Collins described current monetary policy as “well positioned” to adapt based on new economic data and the evolving economic outlook. She is “optimistic” that Fed can achieve 2% inflation target in a “reasonable amount of time” while maintaining a robust labor market. However, she now anticipates that reaching this goal will “take more time than previously thought.”

                    Collins highlighted “recent upward surprises to activity and inflation”. This has led her to suggest that maintaining the current policy level might be necessary for a longer period than initially expected. She emphasized the importance of ensuring that inflation moves “sustainably toward 2%” before considering any policy adjustments.

                    US PMI manufacturing dropped to 18-month low, downside risks prevail for coming months

                      US PMI manufacturing dropped to 53.0 in February, lowest level in 18 months. Markit noted that “operating conditions improve at slowest pace since August 2017 “, “rates of output and new order growth soften”, and “inflationary pressures ease”.

                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                      “The PMI indicates the US manufacturing sector is growing at its weakest rate for one and a half years, with firms reporting a marked easing in production growth in February, linked to a similar slowdown in order book growth.

                      “The survey exhibits a strong advance correlation with comparable official data, and suggests that factory production and orders growth rates are close to stalling mid-way through the first quarter, albeit in part representing some pay-back after a strong January. Export markets remained the principal drag on order books.

                      “Having seen demand grow faster than production through much of 2018, order book and output trends have come back into line in recent months, hinting at an alleviation of capacity constraints as demand cools. Backlogs of works barely rose as a result, and price pressures have likewise moderated, though tariffs were again reported to have pushed costs higher. Hiring has consequently also slowed.

                      “Worries regarding the impact of tariffs and trade wars, alongside wider political uncertainty, undermined business confidence, with expectations of future growth running at one of the most subdued levels seen for over two years and suggesting downside risks prevail for coming months.”

                      Full release here.

                      Markets pricing in 35% chance of 100bps Fed hike next week

                        US stock tumbled sharply overnight as traders added bets on another aggressive rate hike by Fed on September 21, next Wednesday. The moves came after stronger than expected consumer inflation data. DOW ended down -1276 pts, or -3.94% while S&P 500 fell -4.32%. NASDAQ suffered most by closing -5.16% lower.

                        Fed fund futures are now fully pricing a 75bps hike, comparing to 91% a day ago, and 73% a month ago. Indeed, there is even 35% chance of a 100bps hike.

                        10-year yield surged to as high as 3.458 before closing at 3.422. It’s still more likely than not for 3.483 high to exert strong resistance to limit upside. Break of 3.176 support will suggest that TNX is extending the corrective pattern from 3.483 with another falling leg. However, strong break of 3.483 will resume medium term up trend. And that could take USD/JPY through 144.98 towards 1998 high at 147.68.

                        US ADP jobs grew 2369k in Jun, May revised up to 3065k increase

                          US ADP employment report showed 2369k growth in private sector jobs in June, below expectation of 3000k. Nevertheless, May’s figure was revised sharply higher from -2760k loss to 3065k growth. By company size, small businesses added 937k jobs, medium businesses added 559k, large businesses added 873k. Goods-producing sector added 457k jobs while service-providing sector grew 1912k.

                          “Small business hiring picked up in the month of June,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “As the economy slowly continues to recover, we are seeing a significant rebound in industries that once experienced the greatest job losses. In fact, 70 percent of the jobs added this month were in the leisure and hospitality, trade and construction industries.”

                          Full release here.

                          UK Cox to set out proposed legal changes in Irish backstop, and return to Brussels mid-week

                            UK Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay said he had a “positive meeting” with EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox. In the meeting, the proposed Malthouse Compromise regarding Irish backstop was discussed.

                            And, Cox shared his thinking in terms of the legal way forward and the ways to address the central issue. That is, according to Barclay, “the legal underpinning that is temporary and his advice to parliament in terms of the indefinite nature of the backstop”.

                            Fox is now expected to set out the changes on Irish backstop on Tuesday. He and Barclay will return to Brussels at mid-week to present the proposals to Barnier.

                            BoE’s Bailey warns of financial vulnerabilities amid global fragmentation

                              BoE Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned on Wednesday that risks tied to geopolitical tensions and the fragmentation of global trade and financial markets remain high. Speaking on the evolving macroeconomic development, Bailey said the world economy faces “material uncertainty,” and warned that some geopolitical threats have already begun to crystallize, impacting financial market behavior.

                              He noted a “notable change” in the usual correlations between the US Dollar and other US assets such as equities and Treasury yields. This breakdown, Bailey warned, increases the likelihood of sharp corrections in risk assets, abrupt shifts in allocation, and prolonged periods of market dislocation. Such dynamics could expose vulnerabilities in market-based finance and ripple into the UK by tightening the availability and cost of credit.

                              Bailey also stressed that trade fragmentation, while geopolitical in nature, has clear economic consequences. “Fragmenting the world economy is bad for activity,” he said, citing basic trade theory. The knock-on effects, he added, would likely weigh on employment and global growth.

                              US trade deficit widened to USD 125.3B in Mar

                                US goods exports rose USD 11.4B over the month to USD 169.3B in March. Goods imports rose USD 30.3B to USD 294.6B. Trade deficit came in at USD -125.3B, versus expectation of USD -105.0B.

                                Wholesale inventories rose2.3% mom to USD 837.7B. Retail inventories rose 2.0% mom to USD 684.3B.

                                Full release here.

                                ECB’s Kazaks reaffirms call for further rate cuts

                                  ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks reiterated his support for lowering interest rates further, pointing to the ongoing economic weakness in the Eurozone.

                                  Speaking during a webcast, Kazaks emphasized the need for continued monetary easing, suggesting that rates should be adjusted step by step.

                                  “If inflation in the next year really returns to a sustainable 2%, interest rates have to be on a neutral level,” he said.

                                   

                                   

                                  Eurozone unemployment rate unchanged at 8.1% in Jan, EU at 7.4%

                                    Eurozone unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.1% in January, better than expectation of 8.3%. 13.282 million people in the Eurozone were unemployed, up 8000 from December.

                                    EU unemployment rate was also unchanged at 7.4%. 15.663 million people were unemployed, up 29000 from December.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Eurozone CPI finalized at 5.2% in Aug, core CPI at 5.3%

                                      Eurozone CPI was finalized at 5.2% yoy in August, down from 5.3% yoy in July. CPI core (all-items ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 5.3% yoy, down from 5.5% yoy in July. Services prices slowed from 5.6% yoy to 5.5% yoy. Energy prices rose from -6.1% yoy to -3.3% yoy.

                                      EU CPI was finalized at 5.9% yoy, down from 6.1% yoy in July. The lowest annual rates were registered in Denmark (2.3%), Spain and Belgium (both 2.4%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (14.2%), Czechia (10.1%) and Slovakia (9.6%). Compared with July, annual inflation fell in fifteen Member States, remained stable in one and rose in eleven.

                                      Full Eurozone CPI release here.

                                      China Caixin PMI manufacturing rose to 51.2, limited impact from recent coronavirus flare up

                                        China Caixin PMI Manufacturing rose to 51.2 in June, up from 50.7, beat expectation of 50.5. Markit said output expands again as sector continues to recover from the coronavirus crisis. Total new work increases for the first time since January, but external demand remains subdued.

                                        Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Around mid-June, the epidemic flared back up in some parts of China, but its impact on the overall economy was limited. The gauge for future output expectations continued to rise in June, reflecting manufacturers’ confidence that there would be a further relaxation of epidemic controls and a normalization of economic activities.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        US PMI composite ticks down to 50.1, broad stagnation in total activity

                                          US PMI Manufacturing rose from 47.9 to 48.9 in September. PMI Services fell from 50.5 to 50.2, an 8-month low. PMI Composite fell from 50.2 to 50.1, a 7-month low.

                                          Siân Jones, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                                          “PMI data for September added to concerns regarding the trajectory of demand conditions in the US economy following interest rate hikes and elevated inflation. Although the overall Output Index remained above the 50.0 mark, it was only fractionally so, with a broad stagnation in total activity signalled for the second month running. The service sector lost further momentum, with the contraction in new orders gaining speed.

                                          “Subdued demand did not translate into overall job losses in September as a greater ability to find and retain employees led to a quicker rise in employment growth. That said, the boost to hiring from rising candidate availability may not be sustained amid evidence of burgeoning spare capacity and dwindling backlogs which have previously supported workloads.

                                          “Inflationary pressures remained marked, as costs rose at a faster pace again. Higher fuel costs following recent increases in oil prices, alongside greater wage bills, pushed operating expenses up. Weak demand nonetheless placed a barrier to firms’ ability to pass on greater costs to clients, with prices charged inflation unchanged on the month.”

                                          Full US PMI release here.