Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted there has been “substantial and gratifying progress” in reducing inflation’s pace, but he warns against premature celebrations.

While inflation is expected to continue to decline, it would be “more slowly than the pace implied by where the markets signal monetary policy should be,” Bostic said in a speech overnight.

With a “strong labor market and macroeconomy,” Bostic highlighted the opportunity to deliberate policy shifts “without oppressive urgency”.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman acknowledged in a speech the progress made in curbing inflation. However, she quickly pointed out “inflation remains well above the FOMC’s 2 percent target.”

She highlighted the robust pace of domestic spending and the prevailing tightness in the labor market. These factors indicate that “the policy rate may need to rise further and stay restrictive for some time to return inflation to the FOMC’s goal.”

Shifting her attention to the broader challenges faced by central banks, she elucidated, “As they have confronted price stability challenges, central banks have also faced new financial stability risks.”

Specifically, she cited concerns related to the substantial fluctuations in interest rates amidst an environment characterized by sustained, heightened inflation.

Moreover, Bowman emphasized the potential risks arising from geopolitical tensions, explaining how they can instigate “greater financial market volatility.” She also underscored the indirect impacts such tensions could have, including influencing economic activity and inflation.

Full speech of Fed Bowman here.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech that as the base case, he supports another 75bps rate hike at the July 26-27 FOMC meeting. This level is “close to neutral”, neither stimulates nor restricts demand.

But Waller added, if upcoming retail sales and housing data “come in materially stronger than expected it would make me lean towards a larger hike at the July meeting to the extent it shows demand is not slowing down fast enough to get inflation down.”

After July, Waller expects “monetary policy to be restrictive until there has been a sustained reduction in core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation, which excludes food and energy.” And, “until I see a significant moderation in core prices, I support further rate hikes,” he added.

Full speech here.

No surprise from Fed. Below is the full statement.

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-3/4 to 2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.