Australia CPI accelerated to 1.6% on automotive fuel prices

    Australia CPI rose 0.6% qoq in Q2, above expectation of 0.5% qoq. Annually, headline CPI accelerated to 1.6% yoy, up from 1.3% yoy ane beat expectation of 1.5% yoy. RBA trimmed mean CPI was unchanged at 1.6% yoy versus expectation of 1.5% yoy. RBA weighted median CPI slowed to 1.2% yoy, down from 1.4% yoy, matched expectations.

    ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman said: “automotive fuel prices rose 10.2 per cent in the June quarter 2019. This rise had a significant impact on the CPI, contributing half of the 0.6 per cent rise this quarter. Automotive fuel prices returned to levels recorded in late 2018 after falling 8.7 per cent in the March quarter 2019.”

    And, “annual growth in the CPI continues to be subdued due to falls in a number of administered prices. Through the year, utility prices have fallen 0.2 per cent and child care has fallen 7.9 per cent following the introduction of the Child Care Subsidy package in July 2018.”

    Full release here.

    ANZ business confidence dropped to -44.3, two more RBNZ cuts expected this year

      New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped to -44.3 in July, down from -38.1. That’s also the worst reading sine August 2018. Among the sectors, agriculture scored worse at -78.5 while retail was best at -30.4. Activity Outlook Index dropped to 5.0, down from 8.0. Construction outlook was worst at -33.3 while services was best at 11.2.

      ANZ noted: “The outlook for the economy is deteriorating. Despite generally good commodity prices and interest rates at record lows, the headwinds of a global slowdown and credit and cost constraints appear to be winning out. With the inflation outlook not consistent with the target midpoint we expect two more OCR cuts this year, helping the economy to find its feet once more.”

      Full release here.

      China PMI manufacturing rose to 49.7, foundation for stabilization still needs to be consolidated

        The official China PMI Manufacturing Index rose to 49.7 in July, up from 49.4 and beat expectation of 49.6. Looking at the details, production, new order, new export order, backlog, purchase volume, import, purchase price,, ex-factory price, employment, production and operation improved. But finished goods inventories, raw material inventory and supplier delivered dropped.

        Analyst Zhang Liqun noted that: “Economic downturn is slowing down…. activities have been restored…. there are signs of recovery in production and operation activities, indicating that the effect of macroeconomic policy counter-cyclical adjustment has begun to appear.”

        However, he also warned that ” downward pressure on the economy is still not to be underestimated. And, the foundation for stabilization still needs to be consolidated.

        Also released, official PMI Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 53.7, down from 54.2 and missed expectation of 54.0.

        UK Johnson: Ready for no-deal Brexit if EU can’t compromise, it’s their call

          During a visit to a farm in Wales yesterday, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson appeared to have no interest in meeting EU, unless they shift their position on Brexit. He said “if they can’t compromise, if they really can’t do it, then clearly we have to get ready for a no-deal exit, and I think we’ll do it …. it’s up to the EU, it’s their call.”

          His spokesman also noted that, “the prime minister made clear that the UK will be leaving the EU on October 31, no matter what,” referring to Johnson’s call with Irish Prime minister Leo Varadkar. And, “the government will approach any negotiations which take place with determination and energy and in a spirit of friendship, and that his clear preference is to leave the EU with a deal, but it must be one that abolishes the backstop”.

          On the other hand, the Irish government said “the Taoiseach explained that the EU was united in its view that the Withdrawal Agreement could not be reopened.”

          US consumer confidence rose to 135.7, highest this year

            Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index rose to 135.7 in July, up from 124.3, and beat expectation of 125.0. Present Situation Index rose from 164.3 to 170.9. Expectations Index Rose from 97.6 to 112.2.

            Conference Board said: “After a sharp decline in June, driven by an escalation in trade and tariff tensions, Consumer Confidence rebounded in July to its highest level this year,”

            “Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labor market conditions. In addition, their expectations regarding their financial outlook also improved. These high levels of confidence should continue to support robust spending in the near-term despite slower growth in GDP.”

            Full release here.

            US core PCE rose to 1.6%, not enough to change Fed’s decision

              In June, personal income rose 0.4%, above expectation of 0.3%. Personal spending rose 0.3%, matched expectations. Headline PCE was unchanged at 1.4% yoy, missed expectation of 1.5% yoy. Core PCE inflation accelerated to 1.6% yoy, up from 1.5% yoy, but missed expectation of 1.7% yoy.

              The lack of materialistic acceleration in core inflation does nothing to alter FOMC policymakers’ mind regarding tomorrow’s rate decision. For now, Fed is still generally expected to cut interest rate by -0.25bps to 2.00-2.25%. The main question is whether Fed would explicitly say that it’s a one-off, or it’s a start of a policy easing cycle.

              Full release here.

              USD/JPY is steady after the release, staying a little bit soft. After temporary top was formed after failing to break through 108.99 resistance earlier this week. But for now, further rise is expected as long as 107.93 support holds. Break of 108.99 should eventually be seen.

              Euro lifted by German CPI, capped by poor Eurozone confidence

                Euro is lifted mildly by stronger than expectation German inflation data. But upside is capped by deteriorating confidence indicators. German CPI rose 0.5% mom in July, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Annually, CPI accelerated to 1.7% yoy, beat expectation of 1.5% yoy.

                Eurozone economic confidence dropped to 102.7 in July, down from 103.3 but matched expectation. Industrial confidence dropped to -7.4, missed expectation of -6.7. Services confidence dropped to 10.6, missed expectation of 10.7. Consumer confidence was finalized at -6.6. Business climate indicator dropped to -0.12, missed expectation of 102.7.

                EUR/USD’s recovery is rather weak and outlook remains unchanged. In case of another rise, upside should be limited well below 1.1282 resistance. Break of 1.1101 and sustained trading below 1.1107 key support will resume larger down trend from 1.2555.

                BoJ Kuroda: We went a step forward to additional policy easing

                  In the post policy meeting, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda indicated that the central bank has already taken a step forward to further monetary easing. And, the tools include cutting short-, long-term interest rates, increasing asset buying or accelerate the pace of base money expansion.

                  Kuroda said, “today, we went a step forward by saying we’ll take additional easing steps without hesitation if there is a risk the economy will lose momentum for hitting our price target”. And, “previously, we said only that we will consider acting if the economy loses momentum for hitting our price goal.”

                  Nevertheless, Kuroda also noted “I don’t think Japan has lost momentum to hit the BOJ’s price goal, or that there is an imminent risk of this happening.”. While, policymakers need to pay attention to downside risks, for now, “we expect the economy to continue expanding moderately, and that it is sustaining momentum for hitting our price goal.”

                  Swiss KOF rose to 97.1, slightly more favorable signals from manufacturing, and services

                    Swiss KOF Economic Barometer rose to 97.1 in July, up fro 93.8 and beat expectation of 93.3. KOF said: “Slightly more favourable signals than before are coming from manufacturing, other services, accommodation and food service activities as well as financial and insurance services. Construction is contributing slightly to the positive development. Consumer prospects are practically unchanged. On the other hand, the indicators for demand from abroad have a dampening effect.”

                    Full release here.

                    German Gfk consumer confidence dropped to 9.7, economic expectations turned negative

                      German Gfk consumer confidence for August dropped -0.1 to 9.7, matched expectations. Economic expectations dropped from 2.4 to -3.7. Income expectations improved from 45.5 to 50.8. Propensity to buy dropped from 53.7 to 46.3. Gfk noted that “It is apparent that the global economic slowdown, trade conflict and Brexit discussions are having an ever increasing impact on consumer confidence. Thus, economic expectations continue to decline and the propensity to buy has dropped off slightly as well.”

                      Economic expectation fell below its long-standing average of 0 for the first time since March 2016. It’s also the lowest reading since November 2015. Gfk said: “The trade war with the US, ongoing Brexit discussions and the global economic slowdown continue to drive fears of a recession. Employees in export-driven sectors in particular, such as the automotive industry and its suppliers, are most immediately affected by this. In addition, reports of downsizing add to employees’ fears of losing their jobs.”

                      Full release here.

                      French GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q2, missed expectation

                        French GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q2, missed expectation of 0.3% qoq, slowed from Q1’s 0.3% qoq. Looking at the details, household consumption expenditure slowed from 0.4% qoq to 0.2% qoq. But total gross fixed capital formation jumped from 0.5% qoq to 0.9% qoq. Final domestic demand excluding inventories accelerated slightly. Imports were stable, slowed from 1.1% qoq to 0.1% qoq. Export growth was unchanged at 0.2% qoq. Foreign trade balance didn’t contribute to GDP growth, at 0.0%.

                        Full release here.

                        UK Johnson: Brexit presents enormous opportunities for our country

                          Sterling’s selloff continues today as markets are adding their bets to no deal Brexit. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is insisting that he could get a new Brexit deal with the EU. He said in televised comments that “we’re very confident, with goodwill on both sides, two mature political entities — the U.K. and EU — can get this done”.

                          And, “it’s responsible for any government to prepare for a no deal if we absolutely have to. That’s the message I’ve been getting across to our European friends. I’m very confident we’ll get there.” He also insisted that the Irish backstop is “dead” along with former PM Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement.

                          Johnson also emphasized that “Once we leave the EU on Oct. 31, we will have a historic opportunity to introduce new schemes to support farming – and we will make sure that farmers gets a better deal”. And, “Brexit presents enormous opportunities for our country, and it’s time we looked to the future with pride and optimism.”

                          At this point, there is no sign of EU shifting its position yet. That is, the negotiation for the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement was closed and won’t be re-opened. European Commission also indicated that while an orderly withdrawal is in everyone’s interest, the bloc is well-prepared for a no-deal Brexit.

                          Japan industrial production dropped -3.6% in indecisive fluctuations

                            Japan industrial production dropped sharply by -3.6% mom in June, much worst than expectation of -1.8% mom. That’s also the largest decline since January 2018. Shipments dropped -3.3% mom while inventories rose 0.3% mom.

                            A Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in the press briefing that the decline was a reversal of the unexpectedly strong production in the preceding months.” He added, “we don’t believe there is a downward trend, though there isn’t an upward trend either”. Production just “fluctuates indecisively”.

                            Also from Japan, unemployment rate improved to 2.3% in June, down from 2.4%. Number of people in work hit record 67.5m. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said “the jobless rate has been firm and moving narrowly at that level”.

                            BoJ stands pat, economy to continue on an expanding trend

                              BoJ left monetary policy unchanged today as widely expected. Under the yield curve control framework, short-term policy interest rate is held at -0.10%. 10-year JGB yield will be held at around zero percent with JGB purchases. Monetary base will increase at an annual pace of around JPY 80T. The decisions are made with 7-2 vote with Y. Harada and G. Kataoka dissented again.

                              In the outlook for economic activity and prices report, BoJ said the economy is “likely to continue on an expanding trend throughout the projection period” through fiscal 2021. Exports are projected to “show some weakness” for the time being, but are still expected to be on a “moderate increasing trend”. Domestic demand would “follow an uptrend” against the background of highly accommodative financial conditions and government spending.

                              Regarding inflation, all item CPI “continued to show relatively weak developments”. But “further price rises are likely”. Year-on-year rate of change in CPI is “likely to increase gradually toward 2 percent”. And both growth and CPI projections are “more or less unchanged” from previous projections.

                              Risks to economic activity are “skewed to the downside”, particularly regarding overseas developments. Risks to prices are also “skewed to the downside”. The momentum towards 2% inflation target is “maintained” but is “not yet sufficiently firm”.

                              BoJ statement here.

                              Outlook for economic activity and prices report

                              Trump: Fed will probably do very little comparing to EU and China

                                Just ahead of FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, Trump continue to pile political pressure on Fed policymakers. In a couple of tweets, he firstly complained that “the E.U. and China will further lower interest rates and pump money into their systems, making it much easier for their manufacturers to sell product. But “in the meantime, and with very low inflation, our Fed does nothing – and probably will do very little by comparison. Too bad!”

                                Additionally, he said Fed raised interest rate “way too early and way too much” and “their quantitative tightening was another big mistake”. And, “the Fed has made all of the wrong moves. A small rate cut is not enough”.

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                                SNB site deposit had largest weekly rise since May 2017

                                  SNB site deposit rose by CHF 1.7B to a record CHF 581.2B last week. That’s also the biggest weekly rise since May 2017. The large jump argued that the central bank could have been intervening in the currency market last week.

                                  ECB’s dovish policy was the trigger in the surge in Franc’s exchange rate versus Euro. At the same time, ECB is widely expected to finally announce an easing package with a rate cut in September.

                                  For now, there is no sign that SNB would set another floor for EUR/CHF yet. And it’s believed that SNB is looking at the speed of the exchange rate move, rather than a specific figure.

                                  UK Johnson said EU position on Irish backstop needs to change before Brexit talks

                                    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman said today that John is ready for Brexit talks, only when EU is willing to change its position.

                                    The spokesman said “the PM has been setting out to European leaders the position … that the Withdrawal Agreement with the backstop has not been able to pass parliament on the three occasions it was put in front of parliament. Therefore it needs to change”.

                                    And, “the prime minister would be happy to sit down when that position changes. But he is making it clear to everybody he speaks to that that needs to happen.”

                                    UK Raab: Easier to get a good deal with EU after no-deal Brexit

                                      UK Foreign Minister Dominic Raab warned today that the “undemocratic” Irish backstop needs to be removed from the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. He said “we want a good deal with EU partners and friends but that must involve the abolition of the undemocratic backstop.” He added, what Prime Minister Boris Johnson “has instructed and the cabinet has accepted” is a turbo-charging of no-deal Brexit preparations.”

                                      Raab also said UK will be in a better position to negotiate a “good deal” with EU if it crashes out of the bloc before the end of October. The no-deal scenario could provide more leverage for a free trade agreement and resolve long-standing issues. He said “The prospect of reverting and getting a good deal will be easier after we have left if that is the case. The reason being we do as an independent third country and less subject to effectively the demands of the EU as we are now.”

                                      Japan Cabinet Office revises 2019 fiscal growth forecast to just 0.9%

                                        Japan’s Cabinet Office projects the economy to grow just 0.9% in the fiscal year ending March 2020. That’s a notable downgrade from prior forecast of 1.3%. For the following year, growth is forecast to pick up to 1.2%, though.

                                        For the current fiscal year, exports growth is forecast to slow to just 0.5%, sharply lower than January’s projection of 3.0%. That would be the weakest growth since fiscal 2012. On the other hand, robust corporate investment and private consumption should help offset some of the drag from exports.

                                        On prices, the Cabinet office forecasts over CPI to be at 0.7% in this fiscal yet, and 0.8% next. Both figures are well below BoJ’s 2% target.

                                        Separately, Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said he would hold ministerial-level talks with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on August 1-2 in Washington for trade negotiations.

                                        CBI: Both UK and EU are under-prepared for no-deal Brexit

                                          The Confederation of British Industry warned in a report, published on Sunday, that neither UK nor EU are ready for no deal Brexit, as contingency planning study finds. The report criticized that while US has made many proposals “many of its plans delay negative impacts but do not remove them”. EU has “taken fewer steps to reduce the damage of no deal”. And, “very few joint actions to mitigate no deal have taken place, creating a high number of areas where continued UK-EU negotiations are inevitable”. Business efforts have been “hampered by unclear advice, tough timelines, cost and complexity”.

                                          Josh Hardie, Deputy-Director General, said: “. Both sides are underprepared, so it’s in all our interests. It cannot be beyond the wit of the continent’s greatest negotiators to find a way through and agree a deal… It’s not just about queues at ports; the invisible impact of severing services trade overnight would harm firms across the country… Preparing for no deal is devilishly difficult. But it is right to prepare.”

                                          Full report here.