Gold’s up trend resumed overnight and surged to new record highs as the precious metal remains well-supported by escalating global uncertainties. The psychological 3000 level is now in sight as investors flock to the safe-haven asset. The rally is being fueled by multiple factors, including intensifying trade tensions, stalemate in Ukraine-Russia ceasefire negotiations, and the extended broad selloff in US stock markets.
In particular, the latest developments surrounding the ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine have kept uncertainty high. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he agreed to the US-led ceasefire proposal in principle but stopped short of fully endorsing it.
Putin indicated that further discussions with US President Donald Trump would be necessary to ensure that the ceasefire results in a “long-term peace” and addresses the “root causes” of the conflict. He also expressed skepticism, questioning whether the proposed 30-day ceasefire would be used to “supply weapons” or “train newly mobilized units,” and raised concerns over how violations would be monitored.
Trump, in response, acknowledged that early reports from Russia were “going OK,” but added that “doesn’t mean anything until we hear what the final outcome is.”
With the ceasefire deal still hanging in the balance, geopolitical risks stays high.
Technically, the next near term target for Gold is 61.8% projection of 2584.24 to 2956.09 from 2832.41 at 3062.21.
However, a key test lies ahead in the medium-term rising channel resistance, which has capped price advances since early 2024. Rejection at this level would still maintain gold’s bullish trend but keep its momentum in check.
On the other hand, decisive breakout above the channel resistance would signal acceleration in Gold’s uptrend. In such a scenario, gold could quickly reach 100% projection level at 3204.26.
Canada’s CPI surges to 2.6%, growing chance for BoC pause at next meeting
Canada’s CPI jumped sharply from 1.9% yoy to 2.6% yoy in February, exceeding market expectations of 2.1%. This marks the first time in seven months that inflation has risen above the 2% mid-point of BoC’s target range.
A key driver of the surge was the expiration of a sales tax break in mid-February, which added to an already broad-based increase in prices. Without the tax impact, inflation would have hit 3.0%. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 1.1% mom.
A closer look at the CPI basket shows widespread price increases across multiple categories. Food prices rose 1.3% yoy, while clothing and footwear climbed 1.4% yoy. Transportation costs surged 3.0% yoy, and shelter costs remained significantly elevated, rising 4.2% yoy.
Core inflation measures also pointed to underlying price pressures. CPI median rose from 2.7% yoy to 2.9% yoy, above expectation of 2.7% yoy. CPI Trimmed rose from 2.7% yoy to 2.9% yoy, above expectation of 2.8% yoy. CPI Common also rose from 2.2% yoy to 2.5% yoy, above expectation of 2.2% yoy.
With inflation climbing back above the BoC’s 2% target, speculation about another near-term rate cut has diminished. Unless major economic indicators such as GDP and unemployment show significant signs of deterioration, the central bank would probably pause the easing cycle at its next meeting.
Full Canada CPI release here.