Tue, Dec 16, 2025 @ 11:23 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 65

Live Comments

Latest

ECB Minutes: No room for forward guidance as caution prevails

    By
    ActionForex
    -

    ECB’s January 29-30 meeting account revealed that policymakers saw a “clear case” for a 25bps rate cut. Members agreed that disinflation is “well on track”, and confidence in inflation converging to target has grown.

    However, the accounts highlighted several lingering uncertainties that warranted a cautious approach going forward. Policymakers emphasized the need to maintain a data-dependent stance, with “no room for forward guidance” at this stage.

    Upside risks to inflation remained from elevated energy and food prices, strong wage growth, and persistent services inflation.

    ECB also flagged geopolitical tensions, fiscal policy concerns within Eurozone, and global trade uncertainties as downside risks to growth, “which typically also implied downside risks to inflation over longer horizons.”

    Full ECB meeting accounts here.

    Swiss GDP expands 0.2% qoq in Q4, driven by domestic demand

      By
      ActionForex
      -

      Switzerland’s economy maintained steady growth in Q4, with GDP expanding 0.5% qoq when adjusted for sporting events. Without the adjustment, GDP rose 0.2% qoq, in-line with expectations.

      Private consumption increased by 0.5%, supported by higher spending on health, recreation, and culture. Government consumption also grew at the same pace, slightly exceeding historical trends.

      Investment in equipment rebounded 1.0%, breaking a two-quarter decline, largely due to higher spending on aircraft and other volatile categories.

      The increase in domestic demand also led to a 0.9% rise in imports of goods and services, with foreign trade contributing positively to GDP growth.

      Full Swiss GDP release here.

      RBA’s Hauser: Global uncertainty justifies rate cut, but more easing depends on disnflation evidence

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser told the parliament today that mounting global uncertainty had a chilling effect on economic activity, which played a role in the board’s decision to cut the cash rate by 25 bps this month.

        He noted that businesses are becoming increasingly cautious, delaying investment projects and expansion plans as they wait for clearer economic signals, “just to see how things pan out.”

        This hesitation, he suggested, made a slight easing of monetary policy a “sensible” response to support economic stability.

        However, Hauser emphasized that further rate cuts are not guaranteed and will depend on incoming inflation data. Policymakers remain optimistic about further disinflation but need to see clear evidence before committing to additional policy easing.

        NZ ANZ business confidence rises to 58.4, on the path to recovery

          By
          ActionForex
          -

          New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence rose from 54.4 to 58.4 in February. However, the Own Activity Outlook, slipped slightly from 45.8 to 45.1, highlighting that while sentiment is improving, actual activity remains uncertain.

          Pricing and cost indicators painted a mixed picture. Inflation expectations for the next year eased from 2.67% to 2.53% and cost expectations fell from 73.6 to 71.3. But wage expectations remained elevated at 79.2 despite fall from 83.1, and pricing intentions ticked up from 45.7 to 46.2.

          ANZ noted that the economy is on the “path to recovery,” supported by lower interest rates and stronger-than-expected commodity export prices. However, the bank cautioned that the next phase of growth remains “a point of debate.”

          The pace of expansion will depend on how households perceive current interest rates, the extent to which global uncertainty influences business investment, and whether firms push forward despite challenges. Additionally, potential labor shortages could emerge as a key constraint on further growth.

          Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

          BoE’s Dhingra: Orderly trade fragmentation unlikely to require monetary policy response

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            BoE MPC member Swati Dhingra suggested that the inflationary impact of rising global tariffs could be tempered by weaker economic growth.

            She added that if the global economy undergoes a “fragmentation in an orderly way,” monetary policy might not need to react immediately as prices readjust to new geopolitical shifts.

            However, she cautioned that in an “extreme scenario” where multiple major economies erect significant trade barriers similar to those proposed by the US, “severe strain on a few sources of supply” could lead to sharp price spikes, reminiscent of those seen following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

            Despite the risks, Dhingra downplayed the likelihood of a severe disruption, noting that “the world economy seems to be moving closer to an orderly fragmentation.”

            German Gfk consumer sentiment drops to -24.7, no sign of recovery yet

              By
              ActionForex
              -

              Germany’s GfK Consumer Sentiment Index for March declined further from -22.6 to -24.7, missing expectations of -21.1.

              February data showed income expectations plunging -4.3 points to -5.4, marking a 13-month low, while the economic outlook for the next 12 months improved slightly by 2.8 points to 1.2.

              According to Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at NIM, the data highlights that “no signs of a recovery” are visible in German consumer sentiment. He noted that headline index has been stuck at a low level since mid-2024, with “great deal of uncertainty among consumers and a lack of planning security”.

              Full German Gfk consumer sentiment release here.

              Australia’s monthly CPI holds at 2.5%, core measures edge higher

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                Australia’s monthly CPI was unchanged at 2.5% yoy in January, falling short of expectations for a slight uptick to 2.6%.

                However, underlying inflation pressures showed signs of persistence, with CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel rising from 2.7% yoy to 2.9% yoy. Trimmed mean CPI edged up from 2.7% yoy to 2.8% yoy.

                These figures suggest that while headline inflation appears stable, core price pressures are still lingering, reinforcing RBA’s cautious stance on further easing.

                The largest contributors to annual inflation included food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.3% yoy), housing (+2.1% yoy), and alcohol and tobacco (+6.4% yoy).This was partly offset by a notable decline in electricity prices, which fell -11.5% yoy.

                Full Australia monthly CPI release here.

                Fed’s Barkin: Staying modestly restrictive until inflation risks clear

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin highlighted the need for a “modestly restrictive” monetary policy stance until there is greater confidence that inflation is firmly returning to the 2% target.

                  Speaking in a speech overnight, Barkin emphasized the importance of remaining “steadfast” in tackling inflation, warning that history has shown the risks of easing policy too soon.

                  “We learned in the ’70s that if you back off inflation too soon, you can allow it to reemerge. No one wants to pay that price,” he cautioned.

                  Barkin acknowledged the high level of uncertainty surrounding economic policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and natural disasters, all of which could influence inflation dynamics.

                  He noted that tariffs imposed during Donald Trump’s first administration in 2018 added about 30 basis points to inflation. However, he cautioned that the effect of the latest round of trade policies is harder to predict, as firms may either pass costs onto consumers or absorb them.

                  Beyond trade policies, Barkin also flagged uncertainties around deregulation, tax policies, government spending, and immigration reforms, all of which could shape labor market dynamics and broader economic conditions.

                  Given these unknowns, he prefers to “wait and see how this uncertainty plays out” before advocating any adjustments to monetary policy.

                  US consumer confidence plunges to 98.3, signals recession risk

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    US. Conference Board Consumer Confidence tumbled from 104.1 to 98.3 in February, marking the largest monthly decline since August 2021 and falling well short of expectations at 103.3. The deterioration was broad-based, with Present Situation Index dropping -3.4 points to 136.5, while Expectations Index sank -9.3 points to 72.9. This is the first time since June 2024 that the Expectations Index has fallen below the critical threshold of 80, which historically signals elevated recession risk.

                    Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, highlighted that consumer sentiment has now declined for three consecutive months, pushing the index to the bottom of its two-year range. She pointed out that pessimism about future business conditions, income, and employment prospects has worsened, with job market expectations hitting a ten-month low.

                    A key concern is the sharp rise in inflation expectations, which surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. Guichard attributed this to a combination of sticky inflation and a spike in household staple prices, as well as the anticipated impact of new trade tariffs. Notably, mentions of trade and tariffs in consumer surveys have surged to levels not seen since 2019.

                    Full US consumer confidence release here.

                    ECB’s Nagel expects more rate cuts Amid encouraging price trends

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      German ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel indicated that incoming data suggests the central bank is on track to achieve its inflation target this year, opening the door for further rate cuts.

                      Speaking today, Nagel stated, “This would allow us on the Governing Council to lower the key interest rates further,” reinforcing expectations that ECB will continue its gradual easing cycle.

                      However, Nagel also cautioned against premature optimism, highlighting “persistently elevated core inflation and the undiminished strength of services inflation.”

                      Bitcoin breaches 90K, double top breakdown could trigger deep correction

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        Bitcoin’s selloff intensified today, plunging below the 90k mark and hitting its lowest level since November. The immediate catalyst appears to be last week’s massive hack of USD 1.5B worth of Ether from cryptoexchange Bybit—an incident researchers have labeled the biggest crypto heist on record.

                        Although Bybit has announced that it fully restored the stolen Ether, market sentiment remains firmly negative, as traders grow wary of systemic risks and question the exchange’s ability to prevent future breaches.

                        Technically, Bitcoin now hovers at a critical juncture. The key 89,127 support level is under heavy pressure, and decisive break there would complete a double top pattern (108368, 108571). Such a development would strongly indicate that a larger-scale correction is underway.

                        In the bearish scenario, Bitcoin could be entering a correction of the entire rally from 15,452 (2022 low). The correction could target 73,812 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 15,452 to 109,571 at 73,617) before completion.

                         

                         

                        Fed’s Goolsbee: Rate cuts on hold until policy uncertainty clears

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized the need for caution before resuming rate cuts, citing uncertainty over the economic impact of the Trump administration’s policies.

                          Speaking in a TV interview overnight, Goolsbee stated that Fed remains in “wait-and-see” mode as it assesses the effects of new tariffs, immigration policies, tax cuts, government spending reductions, and federal workforce changes.

                          Goolsbee made it clear that if the administration’s policies push inflation higher, Fed is obligated by law to respond accordingly. However, he stressed that the overall policy package remains unclear, making it difficult for Fed to determine its next steps.

                          “There’s a lot of uncertainty, a lot of kind of dust in the air, and before the Fed can go back to cutting the rates, I feel and have expressed that we got to get a little dust out of the air,” he said.

                          BoE’s Dhingra reaffirms dovish stance, signals concern over weak consumption

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            BoE MPC member Swati Dhingra, one of the most dovish voices on the committee, reinforced her call for faster rate cuts. She argued that policy remains overly restrictive despite ongoing disinflation.

                            Dhingra, who voted for a 50bps rate cut earlier this month, pushed back against the common interpretation that gradual easing cycle means 25bps cuts per quarter, stating that “that’s not actually what the committee has said. That’s not my definition, clearly.” She emphasized that even under the assumption of quarterly 25bps cuts, monetary policy would still be “in restrictive territory all of this year”.

                            Her primary concern remains the persistent weakness in consumer spending, stating that “consumption remains pretty weak, so we’re not seeing that resurgence of inflationary pressures.” She also noted that the slow recovery in demand justifies a more accommodative stance, as “we basically aren’t recovering fully.”

                            Despite concerns about potential inflationary pressures in certain items, Dhingra maintained that the disinflation process remains intact. She believes the key takeaway is that monetary policy is still restrictive, and reducing the level of restraint would not necessarily derail inflation’s downward trend.

                            Her remarks highlight a clear divide within the MPC, where some members advocate patience, while doves like Dhingra and Catherine Mann argue that rate cuts should come sooner and in larger increments.

                            Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.5% in Jan, core CPI holds at 2.7%

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Eurozone headline inflation was finalized at 2.5% yoy in January, ticking up from 2.4% yoy in December. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, remained unchanged at 2.7% yoy.

                              The largest contributor to Eurozone inflation was the services sector, which added 1.77 percentage points (pp) to the overall rate. Food, alcohol, and tobacco contributed 0.45 pp, while energy added 0.18 pp, and non-energy industrial goods accounted for 0.12 pp.

                              At the EU level, CPI was finalized at 2.8% yoy. The lowest inflation rates were seen in Denmark (1.4%), Ireland, Italy, and Finland (all 1.7%), indicating softer price pressures in some core economies. On the other hand, Hungary (5.7%), Romania (5.3%), and Croatia (5.0%) recorded the highest inflation levels, underlining regional imbalances in price stability.

                              Compared to December, inflation fell in eight EU member states, remained unchanged in four, and rose in fifteen.

                              Full Eurozone CPI final release here.

                              German Ifo unchanged at 85.2, businesses waiting to see how things develop

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index was unchanged at 85.2 in February, falling short of expectations for a rise to 85.8. The data reflects that businesses are still “skeptical” about the outlook, “waiting to see how things develop”, according to the Ifo Institute.

                                Current Assessment Index dropped from 86.0 to 85.0, missing the forecasted 86.5. However, Expectations Index showed slight improvement, rising from 84.3 to 85.4, exceeding the consensus of 85.2.

                                Sector-wise, the manufacturing index improved from -24.8 to -22.1, and trade sentiment rebounded from -29.5 to -26.2. The construction sector also saw a marginal improvement, rising from -28.1 to -27.6. However, services weakened, falling from -2.2 to -4.3.

                                Full German Ifo release here.

                                ECB’s Escriva advises caution; Villeroy sees rate at 2% by summer

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Spanish ECB Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva stressed caution in an interview published Sunday, highlighting uncertainty in the economic outlook. He stated that it is “very difficult to gauge the impact of events that are unfolding”, emphasizing the need to “wait for doubts around certain issues to be cleared” before making monetary policy adjustments.

                                  Escriva reinforced ECB’s meeting-by-meeting approach, stating there “isn’t a pre-established future path for interest rates.” He also noted that Eurozone demand remains weak, with “notable differences among countries.”

                                  Separately, French ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau offered a more direct outlook on interest rate, stating that “seen from where we are today, we could be at 2% by the coming summer.”

                                   

                                   

                                  New Zealand retail sales rises 0.9% qoq in Q4, ex-auto sales jumps 1.4% qoq

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    New Zealand’s Q4 retail sales volume rose 0.9% qoq to NZD 25B, surpassing expectations of 0.6% qoq. Excluding autos, sales jumped 1.4% qoq, well above the 0.3% qoq forecast.

                                    Sales volume growth was broad-based, with 10 of 15 industries posting gains. The largest increases came from electrical and electronic goods (+5.1%), department stores (+4.2%), and accommodation (+7.6%). Meanwhile, food and beverage services rose 2.3%, but pharmaceutical and other retailing declined -3.4%.

                                    Retail sales value climbed 1.4% qoq to NZD 30B, with 11 of 15 sectors reporting gains. Price effects were evident, particularly in accommodation (+11%), food and beverage services (+3.3%), and department stores (+2.9%).

                                    Full New Zealand retail sales release here.

                                    US PMI services slumps into contraction, growth outlook dims

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      US Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 to 51.6, an eight-month high. However, Services PMI dropped sharply from 52.9 to 49.7, marking a 25-month low. As a result, Composite PMI fell from 52.7 to 50.4, its lowest level in 17 months, signaling a broad slowdown in overall business activity.

                                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, highlighted the dramatic shift in sentiment, stating that the “upbeat mood seen among US businesses at the start of the year has evaporated,” replaced by a “darkening picture of heightened uncertainty, stalling business activity, and rising prices.”

                                      Optimism for the year ahead, which had been near a three-year high, has now dropped to “one of the gloomiest since the pandemic.”

                                      Companies are increasingly concerned about the impact of federal government policies, citing spending cuts, tariffs, and geopolitical risks as key headwinds. Sales growth is reportedly slowing amid political uncertainty, while tariff-related cost increases are pushing prices higher.

                                      Williamson added that while the PMI data last year suggested strong economic growth above 2%, February’s report signals a sharp slowdown, with annualized GDP growth now estimated at just 0.6%.

                                      Full US PMI flash release here.

                                      Canada’s retail sales surge in 2.5% mom Dec, but Jan set for pullback

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Canada’s retail sales jumped 2.5% mom to CAD 69.6B in December, far surpassing market expectations of 1.6% mom. Sales increased across all nine subsectors, with the strongest contributions from food and beverage retailers and motor vehicle and parts dealers.

                                        In volume terms, retail sales also rose 2.5% mom, indicating that the increase was not solely due to price effects.

                                        For Q4, retail sales climbed 2.4% qoq, marking the second consecutive quarterly gain. Adjusted for inflation, sales volumes rose 1.8% qoq.

                                        However, momentum may have slowed at the start of 2025. Advance estimate for January suggests retail sales declined by -0.4% mom.

                                        Full Canada retail sales release here.

                                        UK PMI composite dips to 50.5, stagflation dilemma for BoE

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          UK’s PMI Manufacturing dropped from 48.3 to 46.4 in February, a 14-month low. PMI Services edged up slightly to 51.1 from 50.8, while Composite PMI dipped to 50.5 from 50.6, indicating minimal overall growth.

                                          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that business activity remained “largely stalled” for the fourth straight month, with job losses accelerating amid declining sales and rising costs. He cautioned that the combination of stagnant growth and mounting price pressures is creating a “stagflationary environment,” presenting a “growing dilemma” for BoE.

                                          A primary driver of inflationary pressure is the increase in firms raising prices to offset rising staff costs tied to the National Insurance hike and minimum wage increase announced in the autumn Budget. However, these same fiscal measures have also exacerbated job cuts, with employment falling at its fastest pace since the global financial crisis, excluding the pandemic period.

                                          Full UK PMI flash release here.

                                          Load more

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2025 All rights reserved.