US-China trade talks concluded after a “good few days”

    US and China delegations ended the prolonged three-day trade negotiation meeting in Beijing with some positive signs. Ted McKinney, U.S. Under Secretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, said there were a “good few days” in China, and the meeting “went just fine”. He added that “It’s been a good one for us.”

    Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said “extending the consultations shows that the two sides were indeed very serious in conducting the consultations.”

    Canadian Dollar rises as WTI oil breaks 50, BoC a key factor next

      Canadian Dollar remains the strongest one for the week, with help from further rebound in oil price. WTI reaches as high as 50.83 so far today as the corrective rise from 42.05 extends. For now, further rally is expected as long as 48.46 minor support holds, target cluster resistance at 54.61, 38.2% retracement of 77.06 to 42.05 at 55.42. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside.

      Accompanying that USD/CAD would be target 61.8% retracement of 1.2781 to 1.3664 at 1.3118.

      Meanwhile, another key factors on Canadian Dollar is today’s BoC rate decision. We’d maintain that BoC will keep policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. Besides releasing the statement and Monetary Policy Report, the central bank would also update the economic forecasts and host a press conference. The focus of the meeting would be possible downward revisions on the growth outlook and forward guidance on the policy stance. We expect the central bank to maintain the dovish tone laid down in the December meeting.

      We expect BOC to trim its inflation forecast due to lower energy prices. Current rebound in oil price was mainly driven by the Saudi-led production cut and US-China trade talk. We believe the boosts to oil prices are short-lived. Global economic slowdown this year is prone to limit demand for oil, limiting the rally in oil prices. BOC should also downgrade its GDP growth estimate modestly. In the near- term growth would be dampened by Alberta’s compulsory reduction in oil output, effective in the New Year. In the longer-term, the country’s economic growth would be affected by the overall slowdown in the global economy.

      More in: BOC Preview – No Change in Rates, Dovish Stance Accompanied by Modest Forecast Downgrades

      Also on BoC: Bank of Canada to Put Rate Hikes Aside for Now

      Trump’s oval speech did no breakthrough on government shutdown

        Trump used his Oval speech to bluntly demand the Congress to provide USD 5.7B funding to build the border wall. Trump questioned “How much more American blood must be shed before Congress does its job?” and pointed to the numbers of crimes committed by illegal immigrants. But he didn’t declare national emergency to use military funds for the wall.

        Democratic speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi responded and said “The president has chosen fear. We want to start with the facts”. She added “The fact is, President Trump has chosen to hold hostage critical services for the health, safety and well-being of the American people and withhold the paychecks of 800,000 innocent workers across the nation, many of them veterans.”

        Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said “The symbol of America should be the Statue of Liberty, not a 30-foot wall”. And, “So our suggestion is a simple one. Mr. President: Reopen the government and we can work to resolve our differences over border security. But end this shutdown now.”

        So, overall, there is no sign of a breakthrough regarding the shutdown yet, which is already in it’s third week.

        China-US trade talks enter into unscheduled third day with good progress

          Global stocks are lifted by news that China-US trade talks in Beijing are extending into an unscheduled third day, with signs of good progress. It’s confirmed by a US Trade Representative spokesperson who said “a statement will likely follow then.” Nevertheless, the extension itself is affirmative as both sides need time and efforts to full exchange their views before getting close to an agreement by 90-day deadline on March 2.

          Trump tweeted yesterday that “Talks with China are going very well!” Reuters also reported quoting unnamed source saying “Overall the talks have been constructive. Our sense is that there’s good progress on the purchase piece.” However, it’s unknown how China is going to address a key issue of intellectual property theft.

          But at least, this week, China issued long-awaited approvals for import of five genetically modified crops which would boost import of US grains. There was also another larger purchase of US soybeans. These are widely seen as gestures of good will.

          Separetely, the China Daily said in an editorial China “will not seek a solution to the trade frictions by making unreasonable concessions, and any agreement has to involve give and take from both sides,”

          Today’s top mover: NZD/JPY losing momentum ahead of 4H 55 EMA

            At the time of writing, NZD/JPY is the biggest mover today. But considering that it’s just down -49 pips or -0.67%, it’s place could easily been taken out by others at close. Also, it’s showing that today’s trading is rather dull.

            Similar to other Yen crosses, NZD/JPY spiked lower to 69.18 last week on the currency flash crash. It was held slightly above 68.88 key support and rebounded. Rise from 69.18 is seen as a corrective move only and it’s already losing some momentum ahead of 4 hour 55 EMA.

            While another rise cannot be ruled out yet, upside  should be limited by 74.03 minor resistance. On the downside, below 72.12 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retest 69.18 low.

            From a medium term point of view, weekly MACD turned negative and crossed below signal line. NZD/JPY is held well below falling 55 week EMA. Both carry mildly bearish implications. For now, we’d favor an eventual break of 68.88 (2016 low) to resume the down trend from 94.01 (2015 high). In that case, next medium-to-long-term target will be 100% projection of 94.01 to 68.88 from 83.90 at 58.77. This will now remain the preferred case as long as 74.03 minor resistance holds.

            DOW surges as Trump said talks with China going very well

              DOW surges to as high as 23864.76 in initial trading and is currently up more than 1.1%. Sentiments are apparently lifted by Trump’s tweet that “Talks with China are going very well!” US 10-year yield also extends recent rebound and is back at 2.71.

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              Technically, DOW’s break of 23713.93 Fibonacci level is a positive development for stocks. Focus will be on whether it could sustain above this level at close.

              Dollar’s reaction is rather muted though. It’s the second strongest for today but there is no upside acceleration yet.

              UK confirmed arranging Brexit parliament vote on Jan 15, subject to approval

                UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s spokesman James Slack confirmed today that a vote is scheduled in the parliament on Tuesday, January 15 on the Brexit agreement. He told reporter that “Subject to parliament approving a business motion, the debate will be opened tomorrow … The prime minister said that she would close the debate next Tuesday, which is January 15, when the vote will take place,”

                Also he added that May is not trying to delay Brexit by extending Article 50 withdrawal notice. And, the idea may have been discussed by EU officials but not by British officials.

                Into US session: Canadian Dollar strongest, NZD, AUD and EUR soft

                  Entering into US session, major pairs and crosses are generally staying in tight range. New Zealand Dollar, Euro and Australian Dollar are the “relatively” weaker ones. Meanwhile, Canadian Dollar and Yen are the strongest ones. But after all, with the exception of pre-BoC strength of the Loonie, the picture is not too representative.

                  US-China vice ministerial trade talk is extending into the evening but no more news is released on the topic. US and Canada trade balance will be released but are unlikely to trigger any responses. The more interesting could be Trump’s planned speech regarding border wall and government shutdown. But that will come late at around 9pm EST.

                  In Europe, at the time of writing:

                  • FTSE is up 0.93%
                  • DAX is up 0.88%
                  • CAC is up 1.45%
                  • German 10-year yield is up 0.008 at 0.231

                  Earlier in Asia:

                  • Nikkei closed up 0.82%
                  • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.15%
                  • China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.26%
                  • Singapore Strait Times gained 0.65%
                  • Japan 10-year JGB yield attempted to turn positive, but ended at -0.003, up 0.0115

                  Eurozone economic sentiment dropped, weakened in all five largest economies

                    Eurozone economic confidence (ESI) dropped “markedly” by 2.2 to 107.3 in December, below expectation of 108.9. Eurostats noted that “the deterioration of euro-area sentiment resulted from lower confidence in industry, services, construction and among consumers, while confidence improved slightly in retail trade.” Also, the ESI weakened in all five largest economies, including Spain (−3.0), France (−2.0), Germany (−1.9) and Italy (−1.4) and, marginally so, in the Netherlands (−0.3).

                    Industrial confidence dropped to 1.1, down from 3.4 and missed expectation of 3.1. Services confidence dropped to 12.0, down from 13.4, and missed expectation of 12.3. Consumer confidence was finalized at -6.2.

                    Also, Eurozone business climate dropped to 0.82, down from1.09 and missed expectation of 0.99.

                    UK Barclay denied discussing Article 50 extension on Brexit

                      UK Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay denied the Daily Telegraph report that they’re discussing the possibility f withdrawal request with EU. He told BBC radio that “I’ve had no discussions with the European Union in terms of extension.”

                      When he’s explicitly asked if he could deny the report, Barclay said “Yes, because I can be very clear that the government’s policy is to leave on March 29, the prime minister has made that clear on numerous occasions to parliament.”

                      Separately, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar pledged to try to give UK the reassurances needed for getting the Brexit agreement through the parliament. Varadkar said “We don’t want to trap the UK into anything – we want to get on to the talks about the future relationship right away,” And, “I think it’s those kind of assurances we are happy to give.”

                      US Ross: Very good chance to get a reasonable settlement that China can live with

                        US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed his optimism on US-China trade negotiation in a CNBC interview. He said “there’s a very good chance that we will get a reasonable settlement that China can live with, that we can live with and that addresses all of the key issues. And to me those are immediate trade. That’s probably the easiest one to solve,”

                        Regarding the slowdown in China, Ross said it’s a “big problem in their context of having a very big need to create millions of millions of jobs to hold down social unrest coming out of the little villages”. And that could create a “real social problem. But he added, regarding the slowdown, he is “not happy nor guilty. We expected this would happen.” But, “what has changed is China now understands how independent they are on us.”

                        US delegation is having the second day of trade talks in Beijing today.

                        EU mulling reassurances to help UK PM May get Brexit deal approved

                          Reuters reported, with unnamed sources, that the EU is considering ways to help UK Prime Minister Theresa May to secure support from the parliament for the Brexit agreement. The Irish backstop is the key issue in focus. It’s politically a solution to avoid a hard Irish border that is not intended to be triggered. Even if it’s triggered, the backstop would be temporary. However, legally, UK is not allowed to quit the backstop unilaterally. EU officials are said to be considering the reassurances needed. One resolution is a commitment by EU to have a UK-EU free trade agreement in place by the end of 2021. That would help avoid triggering the backstop.

                          Separately, there are rumors that UK and EU officials are discussing the possibility of extending the Article 50 withdrawal notice, if the Brexit deal cannot be approved by the parliament by March 29 Brexit date. But the Prime Minister office reiterated to Telegraph that “The PM has always said that we would be leaving the EU on 29 March 2019, and we would not extend Article 50.”

                          Debate on the Brexit agreement will resume in Commons this Wednesday. A meaningful vote is scheduled for Tuesday, January 15.

                          Asian update: JGB yield turned positive, Yen regains some grounds

                            After yesterday’s rally attempt, Euro is trading as the weakest one in Asian session today, together with Swiss Franc. Both are yet to find sustainable buying.

                            On the other hand, after a breather, Canadian Dollar is extending last week’s rally and is trading as the strongest one for today at this point. Dollar is helped by rebound in treasury yields. Yield curve also flattened in the “inverted” range. Yen also regains some grounds today.

                            Asian markets are mildly higher, expect in China. At this point:

                            • Nikkei is up 0.80%
                            • Hong Kong HSI is up 0.25%
                            • China Shanghai SSE is down -0.34%
                            • Singapore Strait Times is up 0.30%

                            Japan 10 year JGB yield turns positive today, up 0.021 at 0.007. It reached as low as -0.045 just last week.

                            Overnight:

                            • DOW rose 0.42% to 23531.35
                            • S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 2549.69
                            • NASDAQ rose 1.26% to 6823.47
                            • 10 year yield rose 0.23 to 2.682

                            DOW is still limited by 23713.93 fibonacci level. S&P 500 is held by equivalent level at 2537.61. Also NASDAQ is kept relatively far below equivalent level at 6932.44.

                            Yield curve is still inverted from 1-year (2.600), 2-year (2.541), 3-year (2.525) to 5 year (2.539). But they are now back above Federal funds rate target of 2.25-2.50%.

                            ISM non-manufacturing dropped to five month low, growth rate cooled

                              US ISM non-manufacturing composite dropped to 57.6 in December, down from 60.7 and missed expectation of 57.6. It’s also the lowest level in five months. Employment component dropped -2.1 to 56.3.

                              ISM noted in the release that “The non-manufacturing sector’s growth rate cooled off in December. Respondents indicate that there still is concern about tariffs, despite the hold on increases by the U.S. and China. Also, comments reflect that capacity constraints have lessened; however, employment-resource challenges remain. Respondents are mostly optimistic about overall business conditions.”

                              Full release here.

                              Into US session: Dollar sold off broadly, Swiss Franc and Euro strongest

                                Entering into US session, Dollar continues to be under broad selling pressure. Expectation that Fed is unlikely to raise interest rate again this year, with some chance of even a cut towards the year end, is weighing down on the greenback. Today’s ISM services and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are unlikely to alter such speculations. Dollar will instead look into Friday’s CPI release for rescue.

                                Canadian Dollar follows as the second weakest even though WTI crude oil is still extend near term rebound. Yen is the third weakest as corrective pull back continues. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is the strongest one for today so far. Euro is ignoring deterioration in investor confidence and follows as second strongest. New Zealand Dollar is the third best performer for now.

                                In European markets, at the time of writing:

                                • FTSE is down -0.49%
                                • DAX is down -0.50%
                                • CAC is down -0.51%
                                • German 10 year bund yield is down -0.010 at 0.201

                                Earlier in Asia:

                                • Nikkei rose 2.44% to 20038.97, reclaimed 20k handle
                                • Singapore Strait Times rose 1.42%
                                • But Hong Kong HSI rose 0.82% only
                                • China Shanghai SSE rose 0.72%

                                Chinese investors are cautious as US-China trade negotiation resumed in Beijing today. It’s originally arranged as a vice ministerial level meeting. But Vice Premier Liu He, Xi’s top official on trade, surprisingly attended the meeting too. Liu’s participation is seen by some that China is putting much effort to make a deal.

                                European Commission repeats there won’t be Brexit renegotiations

                                  European Commission chief spokesman Margaritis Schinas said regarding the Brexit agreement. He said, “the deal that is on the table is the best and the only deal possible.” And, “this deal will not be renegotiated.”

                                  Additionally, there is no more scheduled negotiation talks as “negotiations are complete”.

                                  Schinas described the phone call between EC President Jean-Claude Juncker and UK Prime Minister Theresa May last Friday as “friendly”. The two would speak again this week.

                                  Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped for the fifth month, neither politicians nor central banks are reacting

                                    Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped to -1.5 in January, down from -0.3 but beat expectation of -2.0. Still, that’s the fifth decline in a row and situation and expectation fell slightly once again. Sentix noted that “What is worrying about the current loss of momentum is the policy’s unwillingness to react, which is obviously unaware of the possible implications. Investors do not expect a quick reaction from the central banks either.”

                                    Also, Sentix added that “The US President, too, is becoming increasingly entangled in a secondary war theatre, and the US shutdown is strengthening the downward momentum in the USA as well. The US overall index falls for the third time to only 6.6 points. Eastern Europe and, above all, Latin America are viewed somewhat more positively.”

                                    On Eurozone, Sentix warned that “the eurozone is dangerously close to stagnation”. And, “Neither politicians nor central banks seem to have really grasped the extent of this loss of momentum. The EU Commission’s agreement with Italy in the trade dispute is on the credit side. But the continuing protest of the yellow vests in France could weigh more heavily. The possible “hard Brexit” and the lack of support from the global economy remain negative factors.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Brexit parliamentary vote to be held on Jan 15

                                      BBC reported that the Commons will vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal on Tuesday January 15. And May will give her last efforts to give further assurances that the controversial Irish backstop solution is only temporary. MPs are invited to meet with May tomorrow.

                                      Over 200 MPs had signed a letter to May urging her to rule out a no-deal Brexit. However, former foreign minister Boris Johnson wrote in Daily Telegraph arguing that no-deal Brexit, “otherwise known as coming out on World Trade terms” is “closest to what people actually voted for” in the 2016 EU referendum.

                                      Separately, a YouGov poll published on Sunday should that if a referendum were held immediately, 46% of Britons would vote to remain in the EU, 39% would vote to leave. Removing those undecided or refused to answer, the split was 54-46 in favor of remaining.

                                      China foreign ministry: Trade friction is not a positive situation for US, China and the world

                                        China and the US are holding vice ministerial trade negotiation in Beijing today. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that “From the beginning we have believed that China-U.S. trade friction is not a positive situation for either country or the world economy. China has the good faith, on the basis of mutual respect and equality, to resolve the bilateral trade frictions.”

                                        Lu added, “As for whether the Chinese economy is good or not, I have already explained this. China’s development has ample tenacity and huge potential”. And, “We have firm confidence in the strong long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy.”

                                        Trump said on Sunday that “I think China wants to get it resolved. Their economy’s not doing well… “I think that gives them a great incentive to negotiate.”

                                        IMF Lipton: World is not well prepared to deal with recession

                                          IMF first deputy managing director David Lipton warned that “the next recession is somewhere over the horizon, and we are less prepared to deal with that than we should be”, and “less prepared than in the last” crisis in 2008.

                                          And he urged that “given this, countries should be paying attention to keeping their economy on a level trajectory, building buffers and not fighting with each other.”

                                          Lipton also noted that “China is clearly slowing down — we think China’s growth has to slow, but keeping it from slowing in a dangerous way is an important objective.”