Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6096; (P) 1.6115; (R1) 1.6149; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.6294 and intraday bias remains neutral first. For now, further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.5962 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6314 will re-affirm medium term bullishness and target 1.6432 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6079) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6789; (P) 1.6834; (R1) 1.6905; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.7194 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 1.6538. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6538 at 1.7748 next. However, sustained break of 1.6538 will resume the fall from 1.9799 and carries larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, while the pull back from 1.9799 is deep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. EUR/AUD is still holding on to 1.6597 (2015 high) cluster support, with 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668. Larger rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.6597 suggest bearish reversal.

EUR/AUD’s rally from 1.5846 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Corrective fall from 1.6785 should have completed with three waves down to 1.5846. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.6513 resistance. Firm break there will confirm this case and target 1.6785 high next. On the downside, though, break of 1.6142 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rally resumption. Rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5254 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6221; (P) 1.6279; (R1) 1.6382; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neural as consolidation from 1.6033 is still extending. Outlook stays bearish as long as 1.6585 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.6033 will resume the whole fall from 1.9799, towards long term EMA at 1.5792. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.6585 resistance should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5792). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.6586 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6060; (P) 1.6103; (R1) 1.6142; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. With 1.6178 minor resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, decisive break of 1.6033 will resume larger down trend from 1.9799. Next near term target is 100% projection of 1.6872 to 1.6122 from 1.6420 at 1.5984. On the upside, firm break of 1.6178 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming, after drawing support from 1.6033 low. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.6420 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, price action from 1.9799 are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. The question is whether it’s a sideway pattern or a deep correction. On the downside, sustained break of 1.6033 will suggest it’s the latter case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. On the upside, break of 1.6827 resistance will favor the former case and bring stronger rebound.

EUR/AUD’s rebound and break of 1.5849 suggests that whole pattern from 1.5250 is resuming. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 will bring further rise to 1.6033 key support turned resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.5657 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5418 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed, and turn focus to 1.6827 structural resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5306; (P) 1.5382; (R1) 1.5448; More….

With 1.5454 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the downside. Current fall from 1.6189 should target 1.5153 key support level next. On the upside, above 1.5454 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5974; (P) 1.6026; (R1) 1.6111; More…

EUR/AUD’s rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current up trend from 1.4281 should target 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6302 next. On the downside, below 1.5933 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations again first.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.5396) is raising the chance of bullish trend reversal. On break of 1.5976, focus will be on 1.6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4570; (P) 1.4602; (R1) 1.4639; More…

EUR/AUD dips mildly today but stays in established range. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.4804 resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 1.4318 low will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623. However, break of 1.4804 will delay the bearish case and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4617; (P) 1.4672; (R1) 1.4759; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is back on the upside as rebound from 1.4281 resumes. Firm break of 1.4804 resistance will bring stronger rally back towards 1.5396. On the downside, below 1.4564 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.4281 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6289; (P) 1.6329; (R1) 1.6379; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Corrective pull back from 1.6786 should have completed at 1.5905. Further rise should be seen back to 1.6680/6786 resistance zone next. On the downside, however, break of 1.6074 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5894 key support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6024) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6353; (P) 1.6386; (R1) 1.6436; More…

EUR/AUD rebounds strongly today but stays below 1.6586 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6586 will suggest that it’s at least in correction to the fall from 1.9799 to 1.6033. Further rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6033 at 1.7472. However, rejection by 1.6586 will maintain near term bearishness for another fall through 1.6033 later.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall might be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5816). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. However, strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.6449) would neutralize the long term bearishness and argues that price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a sideway range pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5780; (P) 1.5826; (R1) 1.5903; More….

EUR/AUD’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 1.5886 so far. Intraday bias is now on the upside as rise from 1.5271 should target a test on 1.6139/89 resistance zone. However, as the rebound from 1.5271 is not clearly impulsive yet and momentum isn’t too convincing. Break of 1.5695 minor support could be an early sign of near term topping. In such case, focus will be back on 1.5425 support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.6189 is a corrective move and has completed at 1.5217 already. Key support levels of 1.5153 and 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 were defended. And medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is not completed yet. Break of 1.6189 will target 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6316; (P) 1.6451; (R1) 1.6521; More…

Intraday bias remains neural for consolidation above 1.6033 temporary low first. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.6772 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.6033 will resume whole decline from 1.9799 and target next support level at 1.5346. On the upside, though, break of 1.6772 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This week remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6785; (P) 1.6849; (R1) 1.6956; More…

EUR/AUD’s rally continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally is part of the up trend from 1.4281. Next target is 1.7377 projection level next. On the downside, break 1.6737 minor support will intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of another pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5762; (P) 1.5880; (R1) 1.5956; More….

At this point, EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation above 1.5774 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook also stays bearish with 1.6154 resistance intact and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.5774 will resume the fall from 1.6765 and target 1.5346 key support next. On the upside, break of 1.6154 will argue that the pull back has completed. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.6765.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high) argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5593; (P) 1.5627; (R1) 1.5668; More….

EUR/AUD recovers further today but struggles to stay above 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.5677) 1.5677 so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and another decline is mildly in favor. Below 1.5578 will resume the fall from 1.5888 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.5271 low. Nonetheless, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA will bring retest of 1.5888 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from m 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6507; (P) 1.6545; (R1) 1.6595; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral first and more range trading could be seen. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6586 will will suggest that it’s at least in correction to the fall from 1.9799 to 1.6033. Further rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6033 at 1.7472. However, rejection by 1.6586 will maintain near term bearishness for another fall through 1.6033 later.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall might be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5823). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. However, strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.6453) would neutralize the long term bearishness and argues that price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a sideway range pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5450; (P) 1.5509; (R1) 1.5601; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral as consolidation from 1.5704 is extending. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5163) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.5704 will resume the rally from 1.4281.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6679; (P) 1.6747; (R1) 1.6825; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in tight range above 1.6538 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.6538 will resume whole decline form 1.9799. Also, sustained trading below 1.6597 key support will carry larger bearish implication and target 1.5962 support next. On the upside, break of 1.7194 resistance should confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6597 key cluster support, (2015 high and 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668, 55 week EMA (now at 1.6532). Strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness. Larger up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) would extend through 1.9799 high. However, sustained break of 1.6597 will suggest bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4733.