Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5035; (P) 1.5141; (R1) 1.5208; More…

EUR/AUD drops to as low as 1.4987 so far today and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Current decline is part for the down trend from 1.9799. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 161.8% projection of 1.6343 to 1.5354 from 1.6223 at 1.4476. On the upside, above 1.5243 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) in in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733 and below. But we’d tentatively look for bottoming sign above 1.3624 long term support, for an interim rebound. However, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is now needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5450; (P) 1.5499; (R1) 1.5552; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation from 1.5704 could extend and another fall cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5282) to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 1.5704 will resume larger rise from 1.4281. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper correction towards 1.4965 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6087; (P) 1.6206; (R1) 1.6296; More…

EUR/AUD is still holding above 1.6033 support despite yesterday’s sharp fall. Intraday bias stays neutral first and more consolidation could still be seen. Yet, further decline is expected as long as 1.6772 resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 1.6033 will resume the decline from 1.9799 for next support level at 1.5346. On the upside, however, break of 1.6772 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6170; (P) 1.6263; (R1) 1.6320; More…

EUR/AUD’s fall resumes after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.6033 low. Decisive break there will resume larger fall from 1.9799. On the upside, break of 1.6374 resistance will extend the consolidation from 1.6033 with another rising leg, and turn bias to the upside for 1.6827.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions form 1.9799 might be developing into a sideway pattern only. That is, medium term outlook is just neutral, and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) could resume at a later stage. On the downside, though, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.6463) would revive medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6613; (P) 1.6654; (R1) 1.6684; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.6631 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6449 support. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6843/4 will resume the rebound from 1.6319 for retesting 1.7062 high next.

In the bigger picture, while 1.7062 is a medium term top, there is no clear sign of trend reversal as EUR/AUD continues to draw strong support from the medium term trend line. Break of 1.7062 will resume the larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.7691 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 1.6449 support will argue that deeper correction is underway to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6561; (P) 1.6584; (R1) 1.6597; More…

EUR/AUD’s strong break of 1.6606 minor resistance indicates that corrective pullback from 1.6742 has completed at 1.6439. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.6742 first. Firm break there will resume whole rise from 1.6127 and 1.6844 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.6439 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5681; (P) 1.5775; (R1) 1.5828; More….

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.5774 suggests fall from 1.6765 has resumed. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for 1.5346 key support. On the upside, break of 1.6038 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, further fall is still expected even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high) argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6601; (P) 1.6626; (R1) 1.6653; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Deeper Deeper fall would be seen to 1.6449 support next. Firm break there will argue that the pattern from 1.6319 has completed at 1.6844 as a corrective move, and fall from 1.7062 is ready to resume through 1.6319. On the upside, above 1.6694 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, while 1.7062 is a medium term top, there is no clear sign of trend reversal as EUR/AUD continues to draw strong support from the medium term trend line. Break of 1.7062 will resume the larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.7691 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 1.6449 support will argue that deeper correction is underway to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000.

EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.3624 accelerated to as high as 1.4909 last week. The strong break of 1.4721 resistance confirmed our view of trend reversal. That is the whole decline form 1.6587 has completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support level. Further rally is now expected to next fibonacci level at 1.5455.

Initial bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside this week. Current rally should now target next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455. On the downside, touching 1.4649 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained by 1.4442 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4854; (P) 1.4910; (R1) 1.4955; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in range of 1.4682/5053 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.5053 will resume the rebound from 1.4318 to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6223 to 1.4318 at 1.5495. However, firm break of 1.4682 will argue that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.4318 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally.

EUR/AUD drew support from 55 weekly EMA and recovered strongly last week. However, such recovery from 1.5894 is currently seen as a corrective move. Hence, while stronger rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 1.6231 resistance to bring fall resumption. Decline from 1.6448 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6765 high. Break of 1.5894 will target 1.5683 support and below. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6231 will dampen this view and target 1.6448 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, medium term outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.

EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation from 1.5591 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 1.5830 resistance holds, outlook stays bearish and further fall is expected. Break of 1.5591 will resume larger down trend for 161.8% projection of 1.6827 to 1.6144 from 1.6420 at 1.5315 next. However, break of 1.5830 will bring stronger rebound to falling channel resistance (now at 1.5970).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.9799 is developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5847) now further affirms this case could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6135; (P) 1.6217; (R1) 1.6276; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6144 temporary low might extend. On the downside, break of 1.6144 will target a test on 1.6033. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.9799. However, break of 1.6374 resistance will extend the consolidation from 1.6033 with another rising leg, and turn bias to the upside for 1.6827.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions form 1.9799 might be developing into a sideway pattern only. That is, medium term outlook is just neutral, and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) could resume at a later stage. On the downside, though, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.6459) would revive medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6612; (P) 1.6688; (R1) 1.6738; More…

EUR/AUD recovered quickly after dipping to 1.6631 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6843 will resume the rebound from 1.6319 for retesting 1.7062 high next. On the downside, however, below 1.6631 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6449 support instead.

In the bigger picture, while 1.7062 is a medium term top, there is no clear sign of trend reversal as EUR/AUD continues to draw strong support from the medium term trend line. Break of 1.7062 will resume the larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.7691 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 1.6449 support will argue that deeper correction is underway to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4881; (P) 1.4919; (R1) 1.4970; More…

EUR/AUD lost some upside moment with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. But further rise is in favor with 1.4830 minor support intact. As noted before, correction from 1.5226 should have completed with three waves down to 1.4421 already. Break of 1.5073 will likely resume the rise from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4421 at 1.5411 next. On the downside, below 1.4830 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4777 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to resume to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, another decline will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4486; (P) 1.4550; (R1) 1.4612; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and some more consolidation could be seen above 1.4318 temporary low. But outlook remains bearish as long as 1.4940 resistance holds. Break of 1.4318 will resume larger down trend to 1.3624 long term support next. On the upside, however, firm break of 1.4940 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.5327 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5593; (P) 1.5623; (R1) 1.5655; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays mildly on the upside for the moment. Consolidation pattern from 1.5250 is in it’s third leg and should target 1.5689 resistance first. Break there will target 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. On the downside, though, break of 1.5526 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5355 support and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/AUD dropped notably last week but failed to break through 1.5354 low and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, but further fall is in favor as long as 1.5743 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.5354 will resume whole fall from 1.6434 to retest 1.5250 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.5743 will turn near term outlook bullish for 1.5907 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733 will extend the decline to 1.3624 long term support and possibly below.

EUR/AUD’s corrective pull back continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 1.6398 support holds. Corrective fall from 1.7062 should have completed with three waves down to 1.6127 already. Above 1.6671 will target 1.6844 resistance to confirm this bullish case. However, break of 1.6398 will dampen this view and bring retest of 1.6127 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5881) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4351; (P) 1.4445; (R1) 1.4496; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for the moment. Current decline from 1.5396 should target 1.4318 support first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623. On the upside, break of 1.4804 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.