EURAUD Outlook

EUR/AUD's decline resumed last week and hit 1.6620, but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.7060 resistance holds. Break of 1.6620 will resume larger down trend from 1.8554 to 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 next. However, firm break of 1.7060 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Current development argue that it has already completed at 1.8554. Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6603) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6658; (P) 1.6708; (R1) 1.6793; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen above 1.6620. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.7060 resistance holds. Break of 1.6620 will extend the whole down trend from 1.8554, and target 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6584; (P) 1.6708; (R1) 1.6782; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall is part of the whole down trend from 1.8554 and should target 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 next. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.7060 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds even in case of strong rebound.