Tue, Aug 11, 2020 @ 16:04 GMT

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4653; (P) 1.4701; (R1) 1.4754; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we’re still favoring the case that correction from 1.5226 has completed with three waves down to 1.4421 already. Hence, another rally is expected. Break of 1.4777 will turn bias to the upside for 1.5073 resistance first. Break there will indicate resumption of whole rise from 1.3624. However, break of 1.4221 will invalidate our view and extend the decline from 1.5226 to 61.8% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4236.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to resume to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, another decline will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4061; (P) 1.4134; (R1) 1.4263; More

EUR/AUD’s strong rise and break of 1.4215 resistance suggests that whole rebound from 1.3624 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside fort 1.4039 resistance first. Break will target 1.4721 key resistance next. As noted before, we’re favoring the case that larger fall from 1.6587 is completed at 1.3624, after defending 1.3671 key support. And the trend is reversing. Decisive break of 1.4721 should confirm our view. On the downside, however, break of 1.3980 support will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3624 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 key support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we’d expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn extend the fall from 1.6587 towards 1.1602 long term bottom.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6128; (P) 1.6170; (R1) 1.6196; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is mildly on the downside for 1.6051. Correction from 1.6353 is still in progress and would likely extend through 1.6051 support. But still downside should be contained well above 1.5886 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.5601 to 1.6353 at 1.5888) to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.6252 will target a retest on 1.6353. Break there will resume larger up trend and should target 1.6587 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5886 resistance turned support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5496; (P) 1.5551; (R1) 1.5652; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. For now, in case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance below 1.5773 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 1.5425 will bring retest of 1.5271 low first. Break will resume the fall from 1.6189 and target 1.5153 key support next.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

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EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD dipped to 1.5314 last week but formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first and some more consolidation could be seen. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6139 to 1.5314 at 1.5269 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.5314 will resume the decline from 1.6189 and target 1.5153 key support level next.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5827; (P) 1.5871; (R1) 1.5903; More….

With a temporary low in place at 1.5837, intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first. No change in the view that price actions from 1.6189 are forming a corrective pattern. Below 1.5837 will target 1.5773 and below. But we’d expect strong support above 1.5621 to complete the pattern and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.5966 support turned resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.6139 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. Current rally from 1.3624 could extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4873; (P) 1.4934; (R1) 1.4998; More….

With 1.5042 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is expected in EUR/AUD to 1.4732 support. Break of 1.4732 support will confirm that fall from 1.5173 is the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.5226. In that case, further fall should be seen to 1.4421 again. But we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.5042 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5173 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5887; (P) 1.5998; (R1) 1.6067; More….

EUR/AUD drops notably and breached 1.5941 minor support but recovered. Intraday bias is neutral for now first. On the downside, firm break of 1.5941 will turn bias to the downside for 1.5271 support. Break there will resume whole decline from 1.6765. Meanwhile, rebound from current level will retain near term bullishness. Break of 1.6122 will target 1.6765.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6160; (P) 1.6207; (R1) 1.6236; More….

EUR/AUD retreats again after hitting 1.6250. With 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral again. Recent sideway trading is set to extend further. But as long as 1.5984 support holds, further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 1.6357 will resume larger up trend to 1.6587 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5984 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back. However, sustained break of 1.5984 will be an early sign of trend reversal.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6233; (P) 1.6299; (R1) 1.6391; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.6033 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6772 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.6085 support will pave the way to next support level at 1.5346. Nevertheless, break of 1.6772 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.6597 key cluster support, (2015 high and 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668, 55 week EMA (now at 1.6553) suggests that whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed. Deeper fall would now be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.4733. This week remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5667; (P) 1.5745; (R1) 1.5790; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as pull back from 1.5887 is in progress. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 1.5596 support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.5887 will resume the rise from 1.5346 to 1.5984 resistance first. Decisive break there will pave the way to retest 1.6357 high. Nevertheless, break of 1.5596 will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5346 low.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that 1.6357 is a medium term top. But the strong rebound ahead of 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313) suggests price actions from 1.6357 are developing into sideway consolidation, rather than a deep correction. The range of 1.5271/6357 is likely set for the consolidation. And we don’t expect a break of the range any time soon. But decisive break of 1.6357 will resume the larger up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) to 1.6587 (2015 high).

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5796; (P) 1.5876; (R1) 1.5922; More….

EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.6765 extends to as low as 1.5806 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside. With 61.8% retracement of 1.5346 to 1.6765 at 1.5888 taken out, further decline should be seen to 1.5346 key support next. On the upside, break of 1.6154 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall from 1.6765. Otherwise, near term outlook is mildly bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high), argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low), is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4384; (P) 1.4462; (R1) 1.4577; More

EUR/AUD’s really continues today and reaches as high as 1.4570 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.4721 key resistance next. As noted before, we’re holding on to the case off trend reversal after defending 1.3671 key support. Decisive break of 1.4721 should confirm. On the downside, below 1.4437 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained well above 1.4166 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after defending 1.3671 key support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we’d expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn extend the fall from 1.6587 towards 1.1602 long term bottom.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5932; (P) 1.5995; (R1) 1.6077; More….

EUR/AUD’s rally is in progress and reaches s high as 1.6081 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for target 100% projection of 1.5271 to 1.5886 from 1.5601 at 1.6216, which is close to 1.6189 high. On the downside, below 1.5953 resistance turn support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD drew strong support from 55 week EMA and rebounded. And the development argues that medium term rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6189 will target a test on 1.6587 (2015 high). On the downside, break of 1.5601 support will now be the first sign of medium term reversal, and will bring a test on 1.5271 key support for confirmation.

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EUR/AUD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6427; (P) 1.6547; (R1) 1.6625; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with today’s strong recovery. A temporary low is formed at 1.6453 as it fails to sustain below 1.6597 key support zone so far. On the upside, firm break of 1.6763 resistance will suggests short term bottoming, and more importantly, successful defending of 1.6597. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.7194 resistance first. On the downside, sustained trading below 1.6597 key support will carry larger bearish implication and target 1.6085 support next.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6597 key cluster support, (2015 high and 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668, 55 week EMA (now at 1.6548). Strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness. Larger up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) would extend through 1.9799 high. However, sustained break of 1.6597 will suggest bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4733.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6304; (P) 1.6328; (R1) 1.6358; More

EUR/AUD’s correction is still in progress and deeper fall could be seen. For now, we’d still expect 1.6247 resistance turned support to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.6680 resistance will resume larger rally through 1.6786. However, sustained break of 1.6247 will bring deeper fall towards 1.5894 support instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bullish and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in progress. Prior support from 55 week EMA indicates medium term bullishness. Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. In any case, break of 1.5894 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5929; (P) 1.5963; (R1) 1.5996; More

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.5721 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.5721 low will resume the decline from 1.6765 and target 1.5346 support. On the upside, above 1.6122 will resume the corrective rise from 1.5721 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4165; (P) 1.4213; (R1) 1.4259; More

EUR/AUD’s rally resumed by surging through 1.4334 to as high as 1.4437 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.4721 key resistance. As noted before, we’re holding on to the case off trend reversal after defending 1.3671 key support. Decisive break of 1.4721 should confirm. On the downside, break of 1.4166 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after defending 1.3671 key support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we’d expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn extend the fall from 1.6587 towards 1.1602 long term bottom.

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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5308; (P) 1.5353; (R1) 1.5427; More….

EUR/AUD is still staying in range of 1.5153/5446 and intraday bias remain neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.5446 resistance will revive the case that correction from 1.5770 has completed at 1.5153. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.5770 first. However, break of 1.5153 will resume the fall from 1.5770 to 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.5770 so far suggests that it’s corrective in nature. That is, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.

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EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s choppy rise from 1.5905 resumed last week but lost momentum again after hitting 1.6432. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Despite weak upside momentum, further rise is still expected as long as 1.6203 minor support holds. On the upside, above 1.6432 will target 1.6680/6786 resistance zone next. On the downside, however, break of 1.6203 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6074 support and then 1.5905.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6047) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5894 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5894 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.

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