Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5705; (P) 1.5759; (R1) 1.5794; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with today’s recovery. On the upside, break of 1.5863 will indicate short term bottoming at 1.5723, just ahead of 100% projection of 1.6827 to 1.6122 from 1.6420 at 1.5715. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for rebound, towards 1.6122 support turned resistance. Though, firm break of 1.5723 will resume larger down trend to 161.8% projection at 1.5279 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.9799 is developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6182 support turned resistance last week indicates short term topping at 1.6434 already. Initial bias is back on the downside for 1.5898 structural support first. Sustained break there will argue that choppy rise from 1.5250 has completed already. Outlook will be turned bearish for retesting 1.5250 low. On the upside, though, above 1.6263 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.6434 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.5250 low.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5900; (P) 1.5978; (R1) 1.6023; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6128 is extending. Further rally is expected as long as 1.5773 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6128 will resume the whole rise from 1.5250, which correctives the down trend from 1.9799, to 1.6827 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, outlook stays bearish with 1.6033 support turned resistance intact for now. Fall from 1.9799, as a correction to to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.5250 later. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed. Stronger rebound would then be seen 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5876; (P) 1.5932; (R1) 1.5962; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.5776 support holds. Above 1.6223 will resume whole rise from 1.5354 to 1.6434 resistance first. However, break of 1.5776 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5559 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6148; (P) 1.6188; (R1) 1.6218; More….

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6145 minor support suggests that rebound from 1.5984 has completed at 1.6357 already. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for 1.5984. For now, we’re still viewing price actions from 1.6353 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, downside should be continued by 1.5984 to bring up trend resumption eventually. On the upside, above 1.6226 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6357 first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5984 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back. However, sustained break of 1.5984 will be an early sign of trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4532; (P) 1.4598; (R1) 1.4665; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside as recovery from 1.4508 extends. Upside should be limited below 1.4910 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break the 1.4508 will resume the decline from 1.5396 to retest 1.4318 low. However, firm break of 1.4910 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.5378), maintain medium term bearishness. That is, larger down trend from 1.9799 is not completed yet. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5569; (P) 1.5644; (R1) 1.5687; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.5585 minor support should confirm rejection by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5755). Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside to extend the fall from 1.6434 through 1.5354. On upside, however, sustained break of 55 day EMA will argue that whole fall from 1.6434 has completed and bring stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6608; (P) 1.6696; (R1) 1.6751; More…

A temporary top is formed at 1.6827 in EUR/AUD with the current retreat. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained above 1.6485 support to bring another rally. Current rise is seen as at least a correction to fall from 1.9799. Above 1.6872 will turn bias back to the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6033 at 1.7472.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is now back above 55 day EMA (now at 1.6463) with current rebound. The development argues that price actions form 1.9799 might be developing into a sideway pattern only. That is, medium term outlook is just neutral, and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) could resume at a later stage. On the downside, though, sustained trading below 55 week EMA would revive medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4132; (P) 1.4192; (R1) 1.4244; More…

EUR/AUD lost downside momentum ahead of 1.4072 low and intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, there is no clear indication of resumption of larger decline yet. Above 1.4332 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend recent sideway trading. Nonetheless, decisive break of 1.4072 low will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4880 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5346; (P) 1.5412; (R1) 1.5465; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.5496 will affirm the case of short term bottoming 1.5254, after defending 1.5271 key support. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for 1.5749 resistance and above. On the downside, decisive break of 1.5271 will carry larger bearish implication and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.5976 at 1.4928.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5706; (P) 1.5724; (R1) 1.5740; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.5657 support will suggest rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5418 support first. Break there should confirm completion of consolidation pattern from 1.5250. On the upside, break of 1.5871 will extend the near term rebound to 1.6033 key support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed, and turn focus to 1.6827 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6239; (P) 1.6287; (R1) 1.6325; More…

Sideway consolidation continues in EUR/AUD above 1.6033 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Overall, as long as 1.6586 resistance holds, further decline is still expected. Break of 1.6033 will resume the down trend from 1.9799. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.6585 resistance should turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5792). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.6586 resistance holds.

EUR/AUD’s steep decline last week suggests that rebound from 1.4318 has completed as a corrective move to 1.5396, after rejection by 1.5354 resistance turned support. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.4759 support first. Sustained break there will affirm this bearish case and bring retest of 1.4318 low. On the upside, above 1.5043 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.5398), maintain medium term bearishness. That is, larger down trend from 1.9799 is not completed yet. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5694) holds.

EUR/AUD recovered last week but stayed below 1.5650 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.5650 will revive that case that correction from 1.5976 has completed at 1.5254. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.5749 resistance first. On the downside, firm break of 1.5254/71 will carry larger bearish implication and resume the fall from 1.5976.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

In the longer term picture, focus stays on 55 month EMA (now at 1.5590). Sustained trading above there will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal, and at least bring further rally to 1.6434 cluster resistance, 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.6389. However, rejection by 55 month EMA will suggest that down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress for another low below 1.4281.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4917; (P) 1.4953; (R1) 1.4997; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation continues in range of 1.4791/5173. On the upside, break of 1.5173/5226 resistance zone will finally resume larger rise from 1.3624. On the downside, break of 1.4791 support will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 1.5173 to retest 1.4421 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6554; (P) 1.6739; (R1) 1.6865; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral with focus on 1.6538. Decisive break there will resume the fall from 1.9799. Sustained trading below 1.6597 key support will carry larger bearish implication and target 1.5962 support next. On the upside, break of 0.7194 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 1.6538. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6538 at 1.7748 next.

In the bigger picture, while the pull back from 1.9799 is deep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. EUR/AUD is still holding on to 1.6597 (2015 high) cluster support, with 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668. Larger rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.6597 suggest bearish reversal. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.4733.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6352; (P) 1.6397; (R1) 1.6453; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.6033 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. As long as 1.6772 resistance holds, further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.6033 will resume the decline from 1.9799 for next support level at 1.5346. On the upside, however, break of 1.6772 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5628; (P) 1.5709; (R1) 1.5755; More….

EUR/AUD retreats after hitting 1.5781 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, above 1.5781 will resume the rebound from 1.5519 to 38.2% retracement of 1.6357 to 1.5519 at 1.5839 and possibly above. But upside should be limited well below 1.5984 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.5643 minor support will bring retest of 1.5519 low.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). This is supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor to 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. On the upside, break of 1.5984 support turned resistance is now needed to revive the prior medium term up trend. Otherwise, further decline will be in favor even in case of strong interim rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6269; (P) 1.6337; (R1) 1.6375; More…

EUR/AUD is still bounded in range below 1.6444 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6434 resistance will carry larger bullish implications. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6216 should confirm short term topping, after rejection by 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Intraday bias will be back on the downside in this case, to 1.6033 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5381; (P) 1.5435; (R1) 1.5503; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral as consolidation from 1.5704 is in progress. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5172) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.5704 will resume the rally from 1.4281.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.