Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6144; (P) 1.6210; (R1) 1.6252; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.6319 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.6478 resistance. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 1.6148 will resume recent decline for 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

EUR/AUD’s rebound and break of 1.5849 suggests that whole pattern from 1.5250 is resuming. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 will bring further rise to 1.6033 key support turned resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.5657 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5418 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed, and turn focus to 1.6827 structural resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5911; (P) 1.5936; (R1) 1.5961; More…

Deeper fall could still be seen in EUR/AUD. But downside should be contained by 100% projection of 1.6785 to 1.6134 from 1.6513 at 1.5862, on loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Break of 1.6101 support will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term is possibly in place at 1.6785 already, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as corrective whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.6513 resistance holds, to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828. Strong support could be seen there to complete the first leg of the corrective pattern.

EUR/AUD dropped to as low as 1.3722 last week before forming a temporary low and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. We’re holding on to the view that price actions from 1.6587 are corrective in nature. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.4025 support turned resistance will indicate near term reversal. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.4289 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We’d expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, break of 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5803; (P) 1.5849; (R1) 1.5889; More….

EUR/AUD is staying in range above 1.5721 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6060 resistance should confirm that decline from 1.6765 has completed. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.6765 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.5721 will extend the decline to 1.5346 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

EUR/AUD edged lower to 1.4761 last week but turned sideway ahead of 1.4759 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further fall is in favor. On the downside, decisive break of 1.4759 support should confirm that corrective rise from 1.4318 has completed at 1.5396 after rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance. Deeper fall should then be seen back to retest 1.4318 low. On the upside, however, break of 1.5043 will bring stronger rebound back towards 1.5396.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.5378), maintain medium term bearishness. That is, larger down trend from 1.9799 is not completed yet. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5664) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6542; (P) 1.6576; (R1) 1.6631; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.6606 will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.6742. Break there will resume larger rise from 1.6127. On the downside, however, decisive break of 1.6450 support will argue that whole rebound from 1.6127 has completed with three waves up to 1.6742 already. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for 1.6127 again.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5152; (P) 1.5216; (R1) 1.5324; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the upside with focus on 1.5354 support turned resistance. Sustained break there will indicate medium term bottoming at 1.4318. Stronger rally would be seen back to 100% projection of 1.4318 to 1.5277 from 1.4759 at 1.5718. On the downside, however, break of 1.5083 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4829; (P) 1.4869; (R1) 1.4894; More…

No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook. The correction from 1.5526 might still extend lower to 38.2% retracement of 1.3980 to 1.5226 at 1.4750. But we’d expect strong support from 1.4669 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 1.5015 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.5226 first. Larger rise from 1.3624 is expected to resume later. Break of 1.5226 will target next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4669 support holds. Break of 1.4669 will dampen the bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.4539).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5400; (P) 1.5425; (R1) 1.5468; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.5606 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.5250 with another rise. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 1.5689 and then 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. On the downside, firm break of 1.5250 support will resume the larger down trend from 1.9799. Next target is 1.4733 long term fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5489; (P) 1.5538; (R1) 1.5618; More…

Focus is back on 1.5704 in EUR/AUD with current strong rebound. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 1.4281. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.4716 to 1.5704 from 1.5267 at 1.5878, and then 100% projection at 1.6255. In case of another fall as correction from 1.5704 extends, downside should contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5245) to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6328; (P) 1.6422; (R1) 1.6486; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6786 is in progress. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained above 1.6247 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.6786 will extend larger up trend to 161.8% projection of 1.5683 to 1.6448 from 1.5894 at 1.7132.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is resuming. Strong support from 55 week EMA indicates medium term bullishness. Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. In any case, break of 1.5894 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5905 extended higher last week. Initial bias remains on the upside for further rise. Firm break of 1.6308 support turned resistance should confirm completion of whole fall from 1.6789 and target this resistance again. On the downside, break of 1.6128 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5894 key support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6008) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5894 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5894 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6568; (P) 1.6620; (R1) 1.6666; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Correction from 1.7062 should have completed at 1.6319. Above 1.6704 will resume the rise from 1.6319 to retest 1.7062 high. However, firm break of 1.6442 support will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.6319 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from medium term rising trend line indicates that rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 100% projection of 1.5846 to 1.7062 from 1.6319 at 1.7353. In any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.6319 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5397; (P) 1.5443; (R1) 1.5482; More….

EUR/AUD extends to as low as 1.5370 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current decline from 1.6189 is expected to target 1.5153 key support level next. On the upside, above 1.5494 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/AUD rebounded strongly to as high as 1.5845 last week. The break of 1.5781 resistance argues that decline from 1.6357 has completed much earlier than expected. Initial bias is turned back to the upside for 1.5984 support turned resistance first. Break will bring retest of 1.6357 high. On the downside, break of 1.5706 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that 1.6357 is a medium term top. But the strong rebound ahead of 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313) suggests price actions from 1.6357 are developing into sideway consolidation, rather than a deep correction. The range of 1.5271/6357 is likely set for the consolidation. And we don’t expect a break of the range any time soon. But decisive break of 1.6357 will resume the larger up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) to 1.6587 (2015 high).

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7853; (P) 1.7989; (R1) 1.8189; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in correction from 1.9799 and deeper fall could be seen. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.6085 to 1.9799 at 1.7504 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.8747 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.9799 high first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and further rally would be seen to 2.1127 (2008 high) and possibly to 161.8% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 2.1706. On the downside, for now, touching of 1.6597 resistance turned support (2015 high), is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6041; (P) 1.6097; (R1) 1.6168; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral as it recovered after hitting 1.6033 low again. On the downside, decisive break of 1.6033 will resume whole down trend from 1.9799. On the upside, firm break of 1.630 resistance will extend the consolidation from 1.6033 with another rising leg, back to 1.6827 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price action from 1.9799 are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. The question is whether it’s a sideway pattern or a deep correction. On the downside, sustained break of 1.6033 will suggest it’s the latter case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. On the upside, break of 1.6827 resistance will favor the former case and bring stronger rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4879; (P) 1.4922; (R1) 1.4969; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. Further rise is in favor with 1.4796 minor support intact. We’re holding on to the bullish view that pull back from 1.5226 has completed at 1.4625, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4614. Above 1.4997 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5226 first. However, firm break of 1.4796 will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.4625 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We’ll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5794; (P) 1.5823; (R1) 1.5864; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside with 1.5886 minor resistance intact. Current fall from 1.6434 should target 100% projection of 1.6434 to 1.5907 from 1.6232 at 1.5705 first. Break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.5379. On the upside, above 1.5886 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will now remain mildly bearish as long as 1.6232 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) only. With 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 intact, such down trend is expected to resume at a later stage. Firm break of 1.5250 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. In any case, sustained break of 1.6988 fibonacci level is needed to indicate long term reversal.