EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF stays in range of 1.0925 last week and outlook is unchanged. With 1.0915 cluster support (38.2% retracement 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0903) intact, we’re still seeing price actions from 1.1149 as a consolidation pattern. On the upside, break of 1.1026 resistance would argue that larger up trend is ready to resume and bring retest of 1.1149 first. However, on the downside, sustained break of 1.0903/15 will suggest bearish reversal, or at least bring deeper fall to next cluster support zone at 1.0737 support zone (61.8% retracement at 1.0751).

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 2004 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.0503. Rise from there is starting a medium term up trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1431 and above. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0915 resistance turned support holds. However, sustained break of 1.0915 will argue that rise from 1.0503 might be completed,. Rejection by 55 month EMA would also keep long term outlook bearish.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1581; (P) 1.1601; (R1) 1.1637; More….

EUR/CHF rises further to as high as 1.1627 so far today. But upside is limited below 1.1656 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.1656 will resume the rebound from 1.1366 to 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760. But we would expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.1478 will turn bias to the downside for 1.1366 first. Break will resume the corrective fall from 1.2004.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF was solidly rejected by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, 1.2004 should be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Such correction is expected to extend for a while and therefore, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF’s rebound from 0.9252 short term bottom extended higher last week. The break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9449) argues that it’s correcting whole down trend from 1.0095. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9252 at 0.9574. On the downside, below 0.9404 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds. Current fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Another decline is in favor after rebound from 0.9252 completes. However, firm break of 0.9683, and sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9666) will argue that EUR/CHF is already in a medium term rally, even as a corrective move.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0265). Larger down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in progress.

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF stayed in corrective trading below 1.1721 last week. As downside of retreat was contained well above 1.1541 near term support, outlook stays bullish. Decisive break of 1.1721 will resume the medium term tup trend and target 1.2 key level. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD and daily MACD, decisive break of 1.1541 will confirm topping and turn near term outlook bearish for 1.1355 key support.

In the bigger picture, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress. EUR/CHF should now be heading back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1355 support holds. However, break of 1.1355 will indicate medium term topping. In that case, EUR/CHF should head back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.1142) and possibly below.

EUR/CHF 4 Hours Chart

EUR/CHF Daily Chart

EUR/CHF Weekly Chart

EUR/CHF Monthly Chart

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9772; (P) 0.9797; (R1) 0.9815; More

No change in EUR/CHF’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Another fall cannot be ruled out, to retest 0.9670 low. Sustained break there will resume the whole fall from 1.0095. Nevertheless, break of 0.9840 will resume the rebound from 0.9670 to 0.9878 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9918). Down trend form 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to extend through 0.9407 at a later stage. Nevertheless, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1371; (P) 1.1390; (R1) 1.1424; More…

EUR/CHF recovered after hitting 1.1350 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some recovery could be seen first. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1162 at 1.1484 will confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.2004. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1682 and above. On the downside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.1327) will pave the way back to 1.1162 low.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slight favoring the case that corrective fall from 1.2004 has completed after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. Decisive break of 1.1501 resistance should confirm and target 1.1713 resistance next. And, firm break of 1.1154 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0860; (P) 1.0891; (R1) 1.0941; More…

EUR/CHF recovered after dipping to 1.0841 but recovered quickly since then. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.0958 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound to 1.1062 resistance. Though, break of 1.0841 will extend recent down trend to 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.1173 from 1.1476 at 1.0645.

In the bigger picture, current development firstly suggests that down trend from 1.2004 is still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1476 resistance holds. EUR/CHF should target 1.0629 support and below.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0622; (P) 1.0653; (R1) 1.0669; More…

EUR/CHF’s recovery was limited well below 1.0706 resistance and weakened again. Nonetheless, it’s staying in range of 1.0629/0706. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As 1.0706 resistance stays intact, deeper decline is still expected in the cross. Firm break of 1.0620 key support level will extend the larger decline from 1.1198 to 1.0485 fibonacci level. However, break of 1.0706 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0749 resistance will raise the chance of medium reversal.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. On the upside, break of 1.0897 resistance is needed to confirm completion of such fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1204; (P) 1.1224; (R1) 1.1260; More….

EUR/CHF’s recovery from 1.1119 extends further but outlook is unchanged. Upside should be limited below 1.1278 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.1186 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.1119 first. Break there will extend recent down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.1173 from 1.1476 at 1.0962 next.

In the bigger picture, current development firstly suggests that down trend from 1.2004 is still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1476 resistance holds. EUR/CHF could target 1.0629 support and below.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9858; (P) 0.9884; (R1) 0.9918; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral as consolidation from 0.9953 is in progress. On the upside, firm break of 0.9953 resistance will resume larger rally from 0.9407 to 1.0072 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.9720 will extend the decline from 0.9953 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8407 to 0.9953 at 0.9616.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 0.9970 support turned resistance retains medium term bearishness. That is, while 0.9407 is a medium term bottom, price actions from there would develope into a corrective pattern rather than a reversal. Down trend resumption through 0.9407 is mildly favored at a later stage. This will remain the favored case now, as long 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 holds.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0788; (P) 1.0812; (R1) 1.0844; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. The break of 1.0823 resistance indicates resumption of rise from 1.0629 and carries larger bullish implication. Further rise should now be seen to 1.0897 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0781 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the price actions from 1.1198 are seen as a corrective move. Current strong rebound is raising the chance that it’s completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653. Decisive break of 1.0823 resistance will affirm this bullish case. Further break of 1.0999 will target a test on 1.1198 high. For now, this will be the preferred case as long as 1.0652 support holds.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1419; (P) 1.1441; (R1) 1.1455; More…

No change in EUR/CHF’s outlook. With 1.1487 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is expected. Fall from 1.1622 is a correction and would target 1.1257 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0652 to 1.1622 at 1.1251). Strong support is expected there to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1.1487 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 1.1622.

In the bigger picture, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress. EUR/CHF should now be heading back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1333; (P) 1.1354; (R1) 1.1375; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as it’s staying in range of 1.1310/1444. With 1.1310 intact, further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 1.1444 will resume whole rally from 1.1181 for 1.1501 key resistance next. However, break of 1.1310 will argue that the rebound from 1.1181 might be completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 low again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9766; (P) 0.9794; (R1) 0.9841; More

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen above 0.9711. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.9844 support turned resistance to bring another decline. As noted before, rebound 0.9407 could have completed at 1.0095 already. Below 0.9711 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670. Sustained break there will bring deeper fall to retest 0.9407 low. Overall, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 day EMA (now at 0.9906) holds.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 week EMA (now at 1.0011) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.0095 resistance holds.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9855; (P) 0.9869; (R1) 0.9892; More….

No change in EUR/CHF’s outlook as consolidation form 0.9953 is extending. Intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 0.9953 resistance will resume larger rally from 0.9407 to 1.0072 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.9720 will extend the decline from 0.9953 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8407 to 0.9953 at 0.9616.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 holds, price actions from 0.9407 medium term bottom will be treated as a corrective pattern. That is, long term down trend would resume through this low at a later stage. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.0072 will also have 55 week EMA (now at 1.0041) taken out. That would be an initial sign of long term bullish reversal.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0867; (P) 1.0899; (R1) 1.0922; More…

Corrective recovery from 1.0811 short term bottom could extend higher to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0972) and above. But upside should be limited by 1.1062 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1476 to 1.0811 at 1.1605 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.0811 will resume larger down trend from 1.2004.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Further fall should be seen to 1.0629 support and possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.1162 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1898; (P) 1.1925; (R1) 1.1978; More…

EUR/CHF rises to as high as 1.1979 so far as up trend extends. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.2 handle. Sustained break there will target o 61.8% projection of 1.0629 to 1.1832 from 1.1445 at 1.2188. On the downside, below 1.1910 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation, below staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.1832 should now extend the medium term up trend through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. 2013 high at 1.2649 should be the next target. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1445 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF edged lower to 1.0737 but recovered and turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.0890 will target 1.0658 support, to extend the consolidation pattern from 1.0915. On the upside, break of 1.0790 minor resistance will argue that the fall from 1.0890 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.0866 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.0503 are still seen as a consolidation pattern. With 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) intact, the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1059/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1325; (P) 1.1354; (R1) 1.1384; More…

With 1.1317 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside for 1.1452 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm near term reversal. That is, whole correction from 1.2004 has completed at 1.1178 after hitting 1.1154/98 key support zone. In that case, further rise should be seen to 1.1713 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.1317 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1207) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1398; (P) 1.1421; (R1) 1.1454; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as recovery was limited well below 1.1476 resistance so far. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1162 at 1.1484 will confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.2004. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1682 and above. On the downside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.1333) will pave the way back to 1.1162 low.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slight favoring the case that corrective fall from 1.2004 has completed after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. Decisive break of 1.1501 resistance should confirm and target 1.1713 resistance next. And, firm break of 1.1154 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.