EUR/CHF’s decline last week indicates short term topping at 0.9847, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9847 at 0.9620. But strong support is expected from there to contain downside to bring rebound, and set the range for sideway trading. Nevertheless, for now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9847 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9252 already, on bullish convergence condition in W MACD. Rise from there now target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.9633) holds.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

EUR/CHF broke through 0.9670 last week to resume the whole decline from 1.0095. But a temporary low was formed at 0.9606 with subsequent recovery. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Some consolidations could be seen, but outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9721 support turned resistance holds. Below 0.9606 will target 100% projection of 0.9995 to 0.9670 from 0.9840 at 0.9515.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9913). Down trend form 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to extend through 0.9407 at a later stage. Nevertheless, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal.

In the long term picture, it’s still way too early too call for bullish trend reversal with upside capped well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0459) and 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low). The multi-decade down trend could still continue.

EUR/CHF’s break of 1.1452 resistance last week affirms the case of bullish trend reversal after being support from 1.1154/98 zone. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.1713 resistance for confirmation. Break there will target a test on 1.2004 high next. Meanwhile, note that upside momentum is not to convincing so far. Break of 1.1360 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1154/98 zone again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1234) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0394; (P) 1.0416; (R1) 1.0451; More….

On the downside, break of 1.0360 will suggest that rebound from 0.9970 has completed as a three-wave corrective move at 1.0513. That came after rejection by 100% projection of 0.9970 to 1.0086 from 1.0400 at 1.0516 and 1.0505. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.0186 support first. On the upside, however, sustained break of 1.0505 long term resistance will carry larger bullish implications. Next target is 161.8% projection at 1.0782.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9711; (P) 0.9745; (R1) 0.9774; More….

EUR/CHF recovered after brief breach of 38.2% retracement of 0.8407 to 0.9953. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.9720 will extend the fall from 0.9953 to 61.8% retracement at 0.9616, and possibly below. On the upside, however, break of 0.9818 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9953 instead.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9970 support turned resistance retains medium term bearishness. That is, while 0.9407 is a medium term bottom, price actions from there would develope into a corrective pattern rather than a reversal. That is, down trend resumption through 0.9407 is favored at a later stage. This will remain the favored case now, as long 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1481; (P) 1.1528; (R1) 1.1570; More….

The break of 1.1505 minor support argues that rebound from 1.1366 might be completed at 1.1656 already. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for retesting 1.1366 first. Break there will resume the corrective fall from 1.2004. On the upside, though, above 1.1585 will likely extend the rebound from 1.1366 through 1.1656. But in that case, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, 1.2004 should be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Such correction is expected to extend for a while and therefore, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0074; (P) 1.0115; (R1) 1.0141; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside as fall from 1.0400 is extending. As noted before, rebound from 0.9970 could have completed already. Deeper fall is now expected to retest 0.9970 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, however, break of 1.0204 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0400 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. In any case, sustained break of 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1640; (P) 1.1662; (R1) 1.1684; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral at this point. With 1.1618 minor support intact, the corrective rise from 1.1366 could extend higher. but upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760 to bring near term reversal. On the downside, 1.1618 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1478 support and below. However, sustained trading above 1.1760 will pave the way to retest 1.2004 high next.

In the bigger picture, 1.2004 is seen as a medium term top with bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. 1.2000 is also an important resistance level. Hence, the corrective pattern from 1.2004 is expected to extend for a while before completion. Hence, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0564; (P) 1.0596; (R1) 1.0618; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Current down trend should target 100% projection of 1.1476 to 1.0811 from 1.1059 at 1.0394 next. On the upside, break of 1.0710 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 1.0629 key support should now pave the way to parity next. Overall, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0811 support turned resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0641; (P) 1.0672; (R1) 1.0712; More…

EUR/CHF breached 1.0698 resistance but couldn’t sustain above there yet. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.0602 will resume the decline from 1.0915 to retest 1.0503 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.0698 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) holds, price actions from 1.0503 are seen as a consolidation pattern. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1049/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0781; (P) 1.0803; (R1) 1.0824; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with a temporary top is formed at 1.0824. We’re favoring the case that consolidation pattern from 1.0915 has completed with three waves to 1.0661. Break of 1.0824 will target 1.0877 resistance for confirmation. Firm break there will resume whole rebound from 1.0503. However, below 1.0772 minor support will dampen the bullish case, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0661 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.0503 are still seen as a consolidation pattern. With 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) intact, the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1059/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0714; (P) 1.0731; (R1) 1.0750; More…

EUR/CHF’s break of 1.0797 resistance suggests resumption of rise from 1.0602. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.0915 resistance. Break there will resume whole rally from 1.0503 and target 100% projection of 1.0503 to 1.0915 from 1.0602 at 1.1014 next. On the downside, break of 1.0712 support is needed to signal completion of the rise. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor as in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) holds, price actions from 1.0503 are seen as a consolidation pattern. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1059/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0526; (P) 1.0563; (R1) 1.0597; More…

EUR/CHF continues to lose downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But outlook is unchanged. With 1.0710 resistance intact, further decline is expected. Current down trend should target 100% projection of 1.1476 to 1.0811 from 1.1059 at 1.0394 next. However, on the upside, break of 1.0710 will indicate short term bottoming. Stronger rebound would be seen back to 1.0811/1059 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.0629 will pave the way to parity next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0811 support turned resistance holds, in case of rebound. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm of 1.0811 resistance will indicate medium term bottoming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9628; (P) 0.9642; (R1) 0.9658; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for consolidation below 0.9678. Further rally is expected as long as 0.9595 support holds. Firm break of 0.9678/91 resistance zone will argue that whole decline from 1.0095 has completed, just ahead of 0.9407 support (2022 low). Nevertheless, break of 0.9595 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0095 (2023 high) might have completed at 0.9416, just ahead of 0.9407 support (2022 low). Sustained break of 0.9691 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9416 at 0.9675) will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.9836 and above. However, rejection by 0.9691 will maintain medium term bearishness for another test on 0.9407 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1042; (P) 1.1059; (R1) 1.1069; More….

EUR/CHF is still staying in consolidation from 1.1149 and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained by 1.0954 support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.1149 will resume the rise from 1.0504 and target 161.8% projection of 1.0503 to 1.0915 from 1.0737 at 1.1404.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0503. Rise from there is starting a medium term up trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1431 and above. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0915 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0288; (P) 1.0330; (R1) 1.0373; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays on the upside for 1.0400 resistance. Firm break there will resume whole rebound from 0.9970, and target 1.0610 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0246 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally is expected as long as 1.0086 support holds.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. In any case, sustained break of 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1234; (P) 1.1262; (R1) 1.1278; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. For now, we’re still slightly favoring the case the choppy decline from 1.1501 has completed at 1.1181 already. On the upside, break of 1.1348 will confirm this bullish case and turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.1501 next. On the downside, in case of another fall, we’d expect strong support from 1.1154/98 support zone to contain downside to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1355; (P) 1.1407; (R1) 1.1434; More…

EUR/CHF’s pull back from 1.1476 extends lower but stays above 1.1366 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.1366 minor support holds and further rally is expected. On the upside, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1162 at 1.1484 should confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.2004. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1682 and above. Nevertheless, break of 1.1366 would indicate rejection from 1.1484 fibonacci level and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 1.1444 resistance with current rebound. Decisive break there will indicate completion of the decline from 1.2004, with support from 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. In this case, further rise should be seen to 1.1713 resistance next. On the downside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 is now needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0707; (P) 1.0719; (R1) 1.0735; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0688 temporary low is extending. Further decline is expected with 1.0749 resistance intact. Current decline from 1.0877 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.0915. On the downside, break of 1.0688 will turn bias to the downside for 1.0602 support next. However, on the upside, firm break of 1.0749 will mix up the near term outlook, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.0503 are still seen as a consolidation pattern. With 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) intact, the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1059/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9718; (P) 0.9740; (R1) 0.9768; More…

EUR/CHF is still capped below 0.9760 minor resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 1.0009 should confirm short term bottoming after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 0.9878 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.9670 will pave the way back to 0.9407 low instead.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. The pair is also capped below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9945). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).