Sat, Oct 19, 2019 @ 05:51 GMT

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.15; (P) 126.41; (R1) 126.63; More….

EUR/JPY’s fall from 127.50 extends to as low as 124.27 so far today. Focus is now immediately on 124.23 cluster support 38.2% retracement of 118.62 to 127.50 at 124.10). Decisive break there should confirm completion of whole rebound from 118.61. Deeper fall should at least be seen to 61.8% retracement at 122.01. In this case, the chance of resuming larger down trend will also increase. On the upside, though, break of 125.34 minor resistance after defending 124.10/23 will retain near term bullishness. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 127.50 first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that medium term decline from 137.49 (2018 high) has completed with three waves down to 118.62 already. Decisive break of 133.12 resistance will confirm this bullish case. And whole up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) might resume through 137.49 in that case. On the downside, break of 124.23 support will invalidate this case. And in such case, the down trend from 137.49 could possibly resume through 118.62.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.95; (P) 130.51; (R1) 131.41; More….

EUR/JPY’s rebound from 129.59 extends to as high as 131.70 so far today. A this point, as the cross is staying in range above 129.34, intraday bias stays neutral first. Also, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 137.49 to 129.34 at 132.45 to limit upside and bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, decisive break of 129.34 will confirm resumption of whole fall 137.49 and target 126.61 medium term fibonacci level. However, firm break of 132.45 will target 61.8% retracement at 134.37 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

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EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY edged higher to 133.08 last week but continued to lose upside momentum, as seen in 4 hour MACD. Breach of 132.10 minor support argues that corrective rebound from 128.94 could have completed. Initial bias is turned to the downside this week for retesting 128.94 low. On the upside, above 133.08 will extend such rebound. But upside will likely be limited by 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 128.94 at 134.22 and below.

In the bigger picture, price action from 137.49 medium term top are developing into a corrective pattern. Strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 129.91) suggests that the first leg has completed at 128.94 already. Nonetheless, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm resumption of the rise from 109.03 (2016 low). Otherwise, we’d expect more corrective range trading, with risk of another fall to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 before completion.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern. established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

 

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.14; (P) 117.32; (R1) 117.54; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Corrective recovery from 115.86 should have completed at 120.01. Deeper fall should be seen to retest 115.86 low. On the upside, above 118.47 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 120.01 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 120.78 support turned resistance holds, down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Break of 115.86 will target 109.48 (2016 low) and below. However, sustained break of 120.78 will be the first indication of medium term reversal. Further rise would then be seen to 127.50 resistance for confirmation.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.08; (P) 131.53; (R1) 131.97; More….

EUR/JPY is still bounded in range from 128.94 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 132.40 holds, near term outlook remains bearish for deeper fall. On the downside, break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.63; (P) 117.90; (R1) 118.22; More….

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation from 117.51 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Outlook stays bearish with 119.87 resistance intact. Break of 117.51 will resume the large down trend to 114.84 support next. However, break of 119.87 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Stronger rebound should be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 120.67).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 is still in progress. It’s seen as a falling leg of multi-year sideway pattern. Deeper fall could be seen to 109.48 (2016 low and below). On the upside, break of 127.50 resistance is needed to confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.24; (P) 120.47; (R1) 120.74; More….

EUR/JPY’s is in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current decline from 127.50 should target 118.62 low next. Break will resume medium term down trend. On the upside, above 120.78 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 122.32 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 is still in progress with the cross staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 118.62 will extend the fall to 109.48 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 127.50 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.90; (P) 131.21; (R1) 131.62; More….

EUR/JPY’s rally resumes after brief consolidation and breaches 131.52 temporary top. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside. Current rise from 14.61 should target 100% projection of 124.61 to 130.33 from 127.13 at 132.85 next. On the downside, below 130.79 minor support will turn bias to the downside and bring deeper retreat, possibly to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 130.22) and below. But downside should be contained by 129.55 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of channel resistance from 137.49 suggests that the decline from there as completed. The three wave structure suggests that it’s a correction. With 124.08 key resistance turned support intact, medium term bullishness is also retained. Break of 133.47 will affirm this bullish case and target 137.49 and above. This will now be the favored case as long as 127.13 support holds.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.86; (P) 129.42; (R1) 129.90; More….

Today’s recovery pulled 4 hour MACD above signal line. A temporary low is in place at 128.94 and intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral first. Near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 132.40 resistance holds. Break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.96; (P) 132.14; (R1) 132.49; More….

EUR/JPY’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 132.74 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside and rebound from 128.94 should target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 128.94 at 134.22 and above. On the downside, below 131.79 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price action from 137.49 medium term top are developing into a corrective pattern. Strong support from 55 EMA (now at 129.91) suggests that the first leg has completed at 128.94 already. Nonetheless, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm resumption of the rise from 109.03 (2016 low). Otherwise, we’d expect more corrective range trading another, with risk of another fall to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 before completion.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.65; (P) 130.84; (R1) 131.12; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remain neutral as this point. Near term outlook stays bearish with 132.40 resistance intact. And deeper decline is expected. On the downside, break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations. 

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.33; (P) 130.69; (R1) 131.20; More….

EUR/JPY continues to gyrate in range of 129.34/132.40 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Overall, we’d expect upside of the consolidation to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 137.49 to 129.34 at 132.45 to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, decisive break of 129.34 will confirm resumption of whole fall 137.49 and target 126.61 medium term fibonacci level. However, firm break of 132.45 will target 61.8% retracement at 134.37 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.82; (P) 131.41; (R1) 132.23; More….

We’re favoring the case that a short term bottom is formed at 129.34 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rise is now expected to 38.2% retracement of 137.49 to 129.34 at 132.45. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 134.37. However, decline 137.49 shouldn’t be finished yet. We’d still expect another fall at a later stage. And break of 129.34 will pave the way to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

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EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

The rebound to 131.13 last week was brief. EUR/JPY drops sharply since then, through 129.10 support to close at 128.62. The development revives the case that corrective rebound from 124.61 has completed with three waves up to 131.97. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 127.13 support first. Decisive break there will bring retest of 124.61 low. On the upside, above 129.52 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 131.13 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, for now, EUR/JPY is still holding above 124.08 key support turned resistance. And the larger rise from 109.03 (2016 low) mildly in favor to resume. Break of 133.47 should send the cross through 137.49 high. However, decisive break of 124.08 will confirm medium term reversal and could then pave the way back to 109.03 low and below.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

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EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY dipped to as low as 126.63 last week but rebounded from there. Despite breaching 128.50 minor resistance, the momentum of the rebound is not too convincing. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 130.33 resistance will confirm resumption of rise from 124.61. That will also revive the case of near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 133.47 key resistance. On the downside, break of 126.63 will bring retest of 124.61 low instead.

In the bigger picture, despite rebounding strongly ahead of 124.08 resistance turned support, there was no clear follow through buying. Note again that there is bearish divergence in daily MACD. Firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below. Nonetheless, decisive break of 133.47 key resistance will likely extend the rise from 109.03 through 137.49 high.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.20; (P) 130.56; (R1) 131.13; More….

No change in EUR/JPY’s outlook as it’s staying in range of 1.2894/132.40. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 132.40 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.70; (P) 132.16; (R1) 132.89; More….

EUR/JPY’s rally continues to as high as 132.61 so far. Breach of 132.40 resistance with solid upside momentum suggests decline from 137.49 has completed at 128.94 already. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 128.94 at 134.22 and above. On the downside, break of 131.09 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rebound will remain in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price action from 137.49 medium term top are developing into a corrective pattern. Strong support from 55 EMA (now at 129.91) suggests that the first leg has completed at 128.94 already. Nonetheless, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm resumption of the rise from 109.03 (2016 low). Otherwise, we’d expect more corrective range trading another, with risk of another fall to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 before completion.

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EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s decline from 147.49 resumed by breaking 129.34 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 137.49 to 129.34 from 132.40 at 127.36 next. On the upside, break of 131.05 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern. established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.99; (P) 128.30; (R1) 128.80; More….

EUR/JPY’s decline from 130.33 accelerates to as low as 126.79 so far. Rebound from 124.61 should have completed at 130.33 after rejection by 55 day EMA. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 124.08/61 support zone. On the upside, break of 128.50 minor resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall. Otherwise, deeper decline will remain in favor even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, despite rebounding strongly ahead of 124.08 resistance turned support, there was no clear follow through buying. Note again that there is bearish divergence in daily MACD. Firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below. Nonetheless, decisive break of 133.47 key resistance will likely extend the rise from 109.03 through 137.49 high.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.78; (P) 131.24; (R1) 131.93; More….

EUR/JPY is staying in range of 128.94/132.40 and intraday bias remains neutral. Also, with 132.40 resistance intact, near term outlook remains neutral and another fall is expected. On the downside break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

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