EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.73; (P) 128.16; (R1) 128.46; More….

EUR/JPY’s recovery attempt was rejected by 4 hour 55 EMA and focus is back on 127.61 support. Break there will resume the fall from 130.14 and target 126.63 support first. Break there will then resume the whole decline from 133.12 to 124.08/89 support zone. Overall, consolidation from 126.63 could still extend. But even in case of another strong recovery, outlook will stay bearish as long as 130.14 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) could still resume. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.85; (P) 124.26; (R1) 124.61; More….

EUR/JPY formed at temporary top at 125.13, after failing to sustain above 125.00 resistance, and retreated. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rise is expected as long as 123.18 minor support holds. Correction from 127.07 could have completed with three waves down to 121.63. Break of 125.13 should bring retest of 127.07 high. On the downside, though, break of 123.18 minor support would extend the correction with another fall through 121.63.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 119.31 support holds. Break of 127.07 will target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67 next. However, firm break of 119.31 will argue that the rise from 114.42 has completed and turn focus back to this low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.95; (P) 119.31; (R1) 119.66; More….

EUR/JPY is staying in tight range below 120.01 and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 117.55 minor support intact, further rise is in favor. Break of 120.10 will target 61.8% retracement of 123.35 to 115.86 at 120.48 next. Sustained break will target 123.35 key resistance. On the downside, break of 117.55 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 115.86.

In the bigger picture, as long as 120.78 support turned resistance holds, down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Break of 115.86 will target 109.48 (2016 low) and below. However, sustained break of 120.78 will be the first indication of medium term reversal. Further rise would then be seen to 127.50 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.10; (P) 128.92; (R1) 129.72; More….

EUR/JPY rebound strongly today but stays below 130.26. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. ON the upside, above 130.26 will resume the rebound form 124.61 and target 133.47 key near term resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 127.78 minor support will indicate completion of the rebound from 124.61. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 124.61 first.

In the bigger picture, despite rebounding strongly ahead of 124.08 resistance turned support, there was no clear follow through buying. Note again that there is bearish divergence in daily MACD. Firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below. Nonetheless, decisive break of 133.47 key resistance will likely extend the rise from 109.03 through 137.49 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.93; (P) 133.38; (R1) 134.29; More….

EUR/JPY rebounds further but stays in range of 131.65/134.48 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 134.39/48 resistance zone will confirm medium term up trend resumption. In that case, 141.04 resistance will be the next time. On the downside, though, decisive break of 131.65 will confirm rejection from 134.20 fibonacci level and confirm near term reversal. And, in such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 127.55 key support level.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.

EUR/JPY rebounded strongly last week but upside was held firmly below 125.08 resistance. Initial bias is neutral first. On the upside, break of 125.08 will resume the rebound form 122.37 to retest 127.07. Nevertheless, break of 123.01 will argue that correction from 127.07 is possibly extending with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 127.07 at 122.23.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 119.31 support holds. Break of 127.07 will target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67 next. However, firm break of 119.31 will argue that the rise from 114.42 has completed and turn focus back to this low.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Another rising leg could have started for 137.49 resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.73; (P) 137.11; (R1) 137.57; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the upside for 100% projection of 132.04 to 136.63 from 134.12 at 138.71 first. On the downside, break of 134.12 support is needed to indicate near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). It should be targeting 141.04/149.76 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 132.04 support is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.28; (P) 134.91; (R1) 136.04; More….

Despite dipping to as low as 133.03, EUR/JPY quickly recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. With 132.04 support intact, outlook stays bullish and further rally is in favor. Break of 136.63 will resume medium term up trend. However, below 133.03 will turn focus to 132.04. Firm break there will indicate medium term reversal.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). It should be targeting 141.04/149.76 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 132.04 support is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.95; (P) 130.21; (R1) 130.53; More….

EUR/JPY’s rebound from 127.91 short term bottom is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 130.54 resistance. Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 134.11 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish. Further rise should then be see back to retest 134.11 high. On the downside, however, below 129.14 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 127.91 low instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.27; (P) 128.51; (R1) 128.97; More….

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 127.36 will resume fall from 133.44 and larger pattern from 134.11. Next target is 126.58 medium term fibonacci level. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 129.62 resistance holds, in case of stronger recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

EUR/JPY stayed in range of 128.58/131.07 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and deeper fall is mildly in favor. On the downside, break of 128.85 will resume the fall from 134.11 to 127.07 resistance turned support next. On the upside, break of 131.07 resistance will argue that choppy fall from 134.11 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 132.68 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, and open up the case for retesting 114.42.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Another rising leg in progress for 137.49 resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.64; (P) 135.07 (R1) 135.61; More….

EUR/JPY’s really resumed and reaches as high as 135.62 so far today. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Medium term rally is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 114.84 to 134.39 from 132.04 at 144.12. On the downside, below 134.53 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 132.04 support will suggest medium term topping and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back 55 week EMA (now at 128.34).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.05; (P) 131.34; (R1) 132.29; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Corrective pattern from 134.11 is extending with another falling leg. Deeper fall would be seen to 128.23 support first. break will target 127.36 support and below. On the upside break of 133.13 will bring retest of 134.11 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 134.11 are currently seen as a consolidation pattern only. As long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.46; (P) 125.98; (R1) 126.67; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 126.98 minor resistance intact, deeper fall could still be seen. But considering loss of downside momentum, downside will likely be contained by 124.08/61 key support zone to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 126.98 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 124.08 key resistance turned support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 109.03 and below. Meanwhile, rebound from 124.08 will keep medium term bullishness intact for another high above 137.49.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.75; (P) 124.09; (R1) 124.53; More….

Despite unconvincing downside momentum, further fall is expected in EUR/JPY with 125.01 minor resistance intact. Fall from 127.50 would target 61.8% retracement of 118.62 to 127.50 at 122.01. However, break of 125.01 will turn bias back to the upside for 126.78/127.50 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 118.62 might have completed earlier than expected at 127.50. EUR/JPY is held well inside medium term falling channel, and below 55 week EMA (now at 127.86). That is, the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) might still be in progress. Break of 118.62 will target 109.03/114.84 long term support zone. On the upside, however, break of 127.50 will extend the rebound from 118.62 to 133.12 key resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.12; (P) 130.54; (R1) 131.18; More….

EUR/JPY’s rally resumes after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 131.17 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside to extend the rise from 124.61, targeting 100% projection of 124.61 to 130.33 from 127.13 at 132.85 next. On the downside, below 129.90 minor support will turn bias neutral again to bring consolidation.

In the bigger picture, for now, EUR/JPY is holding above 124.08 key resistance turned support. Fall from 137.49 could be proven to be a correction. Decisive break of 133.47 resistance will confirm its completion and should extend the rise from 109.03 (2016 low) through 137.49 high. However, firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.74; (P) 121.98; (R1) 122.33; More….

EUR/JPY stays in consolidation from 122.65 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside should be contained above 119.99 support to bring another rally. Prior support from 55 day EMA is a sign of near term bullishness. On the upside, break of 122.65 will target 123.35 resistance first. Break will target key channel resistance (now at 124.72).

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is still staying in the falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). Rise from 115.86 is seen as a corrective rise for the moment. Strong resistance could be seen at falling channel resistance (now at 124.72) to limit upside. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 127.50 key resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.83; (P) 127.38; (R1) 128.12; More….

A temporary low is in place at 126.63 with today’s recovery. Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral for consolidation. But near term outlook will stay mildly bearish as long as 130.20 resistance holds. Break of 126.63 will extend the fall from 133.12 and target 124.89 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.27; (P) 132.52; (R1) 132.95; More….

EUR/JPY recovered after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA and intraday bias is turned neutral. At this point, we’re holding on to the view that rebound from 128.94 has completed at 133.08 already. Below 132.03 will target a test on 128.94 low. On the upside, above 133.08 will extend such rebound. But even in that case, upside will likely be limited by 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 128.94 at 134.22.

In the bigger picture, price action from 137.49 medium term top are developing into a corrective pattern. Strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 129.91) suggests that the first leg has completed at 128.94 already. Nonetheless, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm resumption of the rise from 109.03 (2016 low). Otherwise, we’d expect more corrective range trading, with risk of another fall to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.69; (P) 133.15; (R1) 133.84; More…

At this point, EUR/JPY is still staying in range of 131.69/134.39. Intraday bias remains neutral first. With 131.69 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Decisive break of 134.39 high will indicate up trend resumption. Next target will be 141.04 long term resistance. Nonetheless, firm break of 131.69 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and will target 127.55 key support level.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversal and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall.