EUR/JPY’s rebound from 127.91 extended higher last week. A short term bottom should be in place on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week for 130.54 resistance first. Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 134.11 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 128.58 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 127.91 low instead. Break will target 127.07 resistance turned support. That is close to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 126.58.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Another rising leg in progress for 137.49 resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.27; (P) 120.18; (R1) 120.66; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral first. On the downside, below 119.32 will extend the corrective fall from 124.08. In that case, we’d expect strong support from 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 121.32 minor resistance should revive the case that such correction is completed. And, intraday bias would then be turned back to the upside for 123.30/124.08 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we’d expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Nonetheless, decisive break of 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) will argue that rise from 109.20 is completed and turn outlook bearish for 61.8% retracement at 114.88 and below.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.90; (P) 129.36; (R1) 129.96; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside break of 129.97 minor resistance will affirm the case that rise from 124.89 is not completed. Retest of 130.86 should then be seen first. Break will target key fibonacci resistance at 132.56. On the downside, though, break of 127.85 will extend the fall from 130.86 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turned support, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) remains in favor to continue. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 124.61 at 132.56 will pave the way to retest 137.49 high. However, firm break of 124.08 will argue that whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.04; (P) 127.26; (R1) 127.61; More….

EUR/JPY’s break of 127.22 resistance suggests up trend resumption. Intraday bias is back on the upside. The current rise from 114.42 should target 128.67 medium term fibonacci level. For now, outlook will remains bullish as long as 125.92 support holds, even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 121.63 support holds. Decisive break of 127.07 will target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67. Sustained trading above there will target 137.49 next. However, firm break of 121.63 will argue that the rise from 114.42 has completed and turn focus back to this low.

EUR/JPY edged higher to 121.96 last week but was rejected by 122.11 resistance reversed. The development suggests that corrective recovery from 119.31 has completed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 119.31 first. Break will resume the fall from 124.43 to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 124.43 at 118.24. On the upside, however, break of 122.11 will argue that fall from 124.43 has completed. Stronger rise would be seen to retest 124.43.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.59 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 day EMA (now at 119.90) holds. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 124.40) should confirm the start of another medium term rising leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.24; (P) 119.48; (R1) 119.77; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Some retreat could be seen, but downside should be contained above 117.07 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 120.01 resistance will resume the rise from 115.86 for 100% projection of 115.86 to 120.01 from 117.07 at 121.16 first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom is formed at 115.86, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, ahead of 114.84 support. Break of 120.78 support turned resistance will affirm this case and bring further rise to falling channel resistance (now at 126.10). Reactions from there would decide whether the medium term has reversed. For now, further rise is expected as long as 117.07 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.58; (P) 126.29; (R1) 126.76; More….

EUR/JPY’s decline resumes after brief consolidation and reaches as low as 124.89 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 124.61 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 137.49 and put 124.80 key support level in focus. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, break of 126.98 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 124.08 key resistance turned support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 109.03 and below. Meanwhile, rebound from 124.08 will keep medium term bullishness intact for another high above 137.49.

EUR/JPY edged lower to 120.78 last week but recovered since then. Corrective recovery from there might extend higher this week. But upside should be limited below 123.73 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 122.10 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 120.78 first. Break of 120.78 will resume the fall from 127.50 and target 118.62 low next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 is still in progress with the cross staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 118.62 will extend the fall to 109.48 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 127.50 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. Break of 118.62 will extend this falling leg through 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA, this is now the preferred case.

EUR/JPY rebounded strongly last week after initial fall to 137.37. But upside is kept well below 142.92 resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 137.37 will resume the decline from 148.38 to 135.40 fibonacci level. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 142.92 will argue that the correction from 148.38 might have completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 146.71 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 138.55) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, firm break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Sustained break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds (2021 high). Sustained break of 149.76 (2014 high) will open up further rally, as resumption of the rise from 94.11 (2012 low), towards 169.96 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.64; (P) 156.13; (R1) 156.39; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, above 157.19 temporary top will resume the rebound from 153.32 to retest 157.99 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, below 154.86 minor support should resume the corrective fall from 157.99 through 153.32 support, to 55 D EMA (now at 153.10) and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. On resumption, next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.60 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.21; (P) 164.79; (R1) 165.77; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally should target 61.8% projection of 153.15 to 163.70 from 160.20 at 166.71. On the downside, Below 163.81 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low), which is still in progress. Next target is 169.96 (2008 high). Break of 160.20 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.61; (P) 144.40; (R1) 145.14; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is back on the downside with break of 144.32 minor support. Corrective pattern from 148.38 is extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen to 142.54 support next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 146.12 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of medium term topping yet. Up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) could still resume through 148.38 to 149.76 (2014 high). However, break of 137.32 support argue that a medium term correction has already started to correct the whole up trend from 114.42.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.68; (P) 155.05; (R1) 155.44; More….

EUR/JPY continues to lose upside momentum as seen in 4H MACD. But there is not clear sign of topping yet. Further rise is expected to 100% projection of 139.05 to 151.60 from 146.12 at 158.67. On the downside, though, below 153.67 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 148.38 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.