EURJPY Outlook

EUR/JPY fell further to 183.14 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Fall from 186.30 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 187.93. Below 183.14 will bring retest of 182.01 support first. Firm break there will resume the fall from 187.93 and target 100% projection of 187.93 to 182.01 from 186.30 at 180.38. This will remain the favored case as long as 186.30 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 179.37) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA holds.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 186.30 resistance holds. Below 183.14 will target 182.01. Firm break there will resume the fall from 187.93 and target 100% projection of 187.93 to 182.01 from 186.30 at 180.38.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 179.41) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside fro retesting 182.01. Firm break there will resume the fall from 187.93 and target 100% projection of 187.93 to 182.01 from 186.30 at 180.38. On the upside, above 184.27 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 179.41) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.