Sun, Apr 11, 2021 @ 10:41 GMT

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

The rebound to 131.13 last week was brief. EUR/JPY drops sharply since then, through 129.10 support to close at 128.62. The development revives the case that corrective rebound from 124.61 has completed with three waves up to 131.97. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 127.13 support first. Decisive break there will bring retest of 124.61 low. On the upside, above 129.52 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 131.13 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, for now, EUR/JPY is still holding above 124.08 key support turned resistance. And the larger rise from 109.03 (2016 low) mildly in favor to resume. Break of 133.47 should send the cross through 137.49 high. However, decisive break of 124.08 will confirm medium term reversal and could then pave the way back to 109.03 low and below.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY dipped to as low as 126.63 last week but rebounded from there. Despite breaching 128.50 minor resistance, the momentum of the rebound is not too convincing. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 130.33 resistance will confirm resumption of rise from 124.61. That will also revive the case of near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 133.47 key resistance. On the downside, break of 126.63 will bring retest of 124.61 low instead.

In the bigger picture, despite rebounding strongly ahead of 124.08 resistance turned support, there was no clear follow through buying. Note again that there is bearish divergence in daily MACD. Firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below. Nonetheless, decisive break of 133.47 key resistance will likely extend the rise from 109.03 through 137.49 high.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.20; (P) 130.56; (R1) 131.13; More….

No change in EUR/JPY’s outlook as it’s staying in range of 1.2894/132.40. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 132.40 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.70; (P) 132.16; (R1) 132.89; More….

EUR/JPY’s rally continues to as high as 132.61 so far. Breach of 132.40 resistance with solid upside momentum suggests decline from 137.49 has completed at 128.94 already. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 128.94 at 134.22 and above. On the downside, break of 131.09 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rebound will remain in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price action from 137.49 medium term top are developing into a corrective pattern. Strong support from 55 EMA (now at 129.91) suggests that the first leg has completed at 128.94 already. Nonetheless, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm resumption of the rise from 109.03 (2016 low). Otherwise, we’d expect more corrective range trading another, with risk of another fall to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 before completion.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.15; (P) 119.69; (R1) 119.99; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Decline from 124.43 short term top should continue to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 124.43 at 118.24. On the upside, break of 122.11 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, further fall will remain in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.59 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 day EMA (now at 119.22) holds. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s decline from 147.49 resumed by breaking 129.34 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 137.49 to 129.34 from 132.40 at 127.36 next. On the upside, break of 131.05 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern. established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.99; (P) 128.30; (R1) 128.80; More….

EUR/JPY’s decline from 130.33 accelerates to as low as 126.79 so far. Rebound from 124.61 should have completed at 130.33 after rejection by 55 day EMA. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 124.08/61 support zone. On the upside, break of 128.50 minor resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall. Otherwise, deeper decline will remain in favor even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, despite rebounding strongly ahead of 124.08 resistance turned support, there was no clear follow through buying. Note again that there is bearish divergence in daily MACD. Firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below. Nonetheless, decisive break of 133.47 key resistance will likely extend the rise from 109.03 through 137.49 high.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY rebounded further to 118.52 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise is mildly on favor. On the upside, break of 118.52 will target 121.14 resistance next. However, break of 115.32 should confirm completion of rebound from 114.42 and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. EUR/JPY is staying well inside falling channel and below falling 55 week EMA. Deeper fall could be seen to retest 109.48 (2016 low) next. On the upside, break of 122.87 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 124.52), this is the preferred case.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.89; (P) 120.57; (R1) 120.97; More…..

EUR/JPY’s break of 120.25 suggests resumption of decline from 124.43. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 124.43 at 118.24. On the upside, break of 122.11 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, further fall will remain in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.59 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 day EMA (now at 118.89) holds. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.78; (P) 131.24; (R1) 131.93; More….

EUR/JPY is staying in range of 128.94/132.40 and intraday bias remains neutral. Also, with 132.40 resistance intact, near term outlook remains neutral and another fall is expected. On the downside break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.53; (P) 118.02; (R1) 118.32; More…..

EUR/JPY’s break of 117.36 suggests temporary topping at 118.52 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise could still be seen as long as 115.32 support holds. Break of 118.52 will target 121.14 resistance next. However, break of 115.32 should confirm completion of rebound from 114.42 and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) is still in progress. EUR/JPY continues to stay well inside falling channel and below falling 55 week EMA. Deeper fall could be seen to retest 109.48 (2016 low) next. On the upside, break of 122.87 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.12; (P) 131.43; (R1) 131.94; More….

No change in EUR/JPY’s outlook. A short term bottom should be in place at 129.34, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rise is expected to 38.2% retracement of 137.49 to 129.34 at 132.45. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 134.37. However, decline 137.49 shouldn’t be finished yet. We’d still expect another fall at a later stage. And break of 129.34 will pave the way to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.89; (P) 130.45; (R1) 131.55; More….

Strong rebound from 129.34, together with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, suggests short term bottoming there. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 137.49 to 129.34 at 132.45. But overall, decline from 137.49 shouldn’t be finished yet. We’d still expect another fall to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.30; (P) 125.80; (R1) 126.99; More….

EUR/JPY reached as low as 124.61 so far and breached 100% projection of 137.49 to 128.94 from 133.47 at 124.92. There is no sign of bottoming yet despite oversold condition in both 4 hour and daily RSI. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained trading below 124.92 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 119.63 next. On the upside, above 126.83 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 128.94 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term trend reversal continues to build up. That is rise from 109.03 (2016 low) could have completed at 137.49 already. This is supported by bearish divergence in daily MACD current downside acceleration, as well as the break of 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 119.90 and below. This will be the preferred case as long as 128.94 support turned resistance holds.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.49; (P) 117.84; (R1) 118.15;  More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral with focus on 117.55 minor support. Firm break there will suggest completion of rebound from 115.86. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for retesting 115.86 first. On the upside, break of 120.01 will resume the rebound through 61.8% retracement of 123.35 to 115.86 at 120.48.

In the bigger picture, as long as 120.78 support turned resistance holds, down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Break of 115.86 will target 109.48 (2016 low) and below. However, sustained break of 120.78 will be the first indication of medium term reversal. Further rise would then be seen to 127.50 resistance for confirmation.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s rise from 114.42 extended to as high as 119.90 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Such rise is seen as at least correcting the fall from 122.87 Further rise should be seen to 121.14 resistance next. Sustained break there will target 122.87 key resistance next. On the downside, below 118.85 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rise will remain in favor as long as 117.11 support holds.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. EUR/JPY is staying well inside falling channel and below falling 55 week EMA. Deeper fall could be seen to retest 109.48 (2016 low) next. On the upside, break of 122.87 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 124.84), this is the preferred case.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY edged higher to 125.58 last week but lost momentum after touching 61.8% projection of 114.42 to 124.43 from 119.31 at 125.49. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 123.01 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 125.58 will target 100% projection at 129.32. However, break of 123.01 support will now confirm short term topping. In this case, deeper fall would be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 121.81) to correct the whole rise from 114.42.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 day EMA (now at 121.81) holds. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 124.54) should confirm the start of another medium term rising leg.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.93; (P) 130.82; (R1) 131.30; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 129.34 is in progress. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 137.49 to 129.34 at 132.45 to limit upside and bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, decisive break of 129.34 will confirm resumption of whole fall 137.49 and target 126.61 medium term fibonacci level. However, firm break of 132.45 will target 61.8% retracement at 134.37 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY recovered mildly to 129.29 last week but overall outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. While another rise cannot be ruled out, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 130.14 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 127.83 minor support should resume the fall fro 130.14 and target 126.63 low. Break will extend the decline from 133.12 to 124.08/89 support zone. On the upside, however, break of 130.14 will resume the rebound from 126.63 towards 133.12 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.85; (P) 130.05; (R1) 130.45; More….

EUR/JPY rises to as high as 103.59 so far today. The break of 130.33 resistance and sustained trading above near term falling channel indicate trend reversal. Further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 124.61 to 130.33 from 127.13 at 132.85 next. On the downside break of 128.49 support in now needed to indicate completion of rise from 127.13. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, for now, EUR/JPY is holding above 124.08 key resistance turned support. Fall from 137.49 could be proven to be a correction. Decisive break of 133.47 resistance will confirm its completion and should extend the rise from 109.03 (2016 low) through 137.49 high. However, firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below.