Sun, Apr 11, 2021 @ 10:07 GMT

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s correction from 131.39 short term top extended to 128.04 last week. The cross then tried to draw support from 38.2% retracement of 122.39 to 131.39 at 127.95 and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Above 129.54 minor resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 131.39. However, sustained break of 127.95 will bring deeper decline to 125.80 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 125.82) before completing the correction.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, at this point, there is no clear indication that rise from 109.03 is resuming that from 94.11. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping below 149.76 to extend range trading. Nonetheless, firm break of 149.76 will indicates strong underlying buying. In such case, EUR/JPY will target 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 109.03 at 164.68.

EUR/JPY 4 Hours Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

EUR/JPY Weekly Chart

EUR/JPY Monthly Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.55; (P) 128.21; (R1) 128.71; More….

With 129.05 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is expected in EUR/JPY for 126.61 medium term fibonacci level. We’ll be looking for strong support from 126.61 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 129.22 support turned resistance is the first sign of short term bottoming. In that case, bias will be turned back to the upside for 131.34 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, for now, price actions from 137.49 are viewed as a corrective pattern only. Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected at 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is expected to resume afterwards. Though, sustained break of 126.61 will be an important sign of trend reversal and will turn focus to 124.08 resistance turned support.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s decline from 131.97 extended last week and the development suggested that rebound from 124.61 has completed with three waves up to 131.97 already. Intraday bias stays on the downside this week for 127.13 support next. Break will confirm this case and target a test on 124.61 low. On the upside, though, above 130.25 will bring retest of 131.97 instead.

In the bigger picture, for now, medium outlook remains cautiously bullish. the three wave structure of the fall from 137.49 to 124.61 argues that it’s a correction. Also, 124.08 key resistance turned support was defended. Break of 1`33.47 resistance will affirm the bullish case that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress for another high above 137.49. And this will remain the favored case as long as 127.13 support holds.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.96; (P) 133.35; (R1) 133.71; More….

EUR/JPY is still confined in range of 131.16/134.48 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 131.16 support holds. Decisive break of 134.48 will resume medium term rise from 114.84 and target 141.04 resistance next. However, sustained break of 131.16 support will now indicate near term trend reversal and turn outlook bearish for 127.55 key support.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will suggest medium term topping and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.

EUR/JPY 4 Hours Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.17; (P) 118.99; (R1) 120.44; More….

EUR/JPY’s rebound from 115.86 resumed after brief volatility. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 123.35 to 115.86 at 120.48 next. Sustained break will target 123.35 key resistance. On the downside, break of 117.55 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 115.86.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s seen as a falling leg of multi-year sideway pattern. Deeper fall could be seen to 109.48 (2016 low and below). On the upside, break of 120.78 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.96; (P) 128.83; (R1) 129.29; More…

EUR/JPY’s fall from 130.38 accelerates further lower and breached 128.04. Based on current momentum, the corrective fall from 131.39 will dip deeper than originally expected. Intraday bias is now on the downside. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.39 to 131.39 at 127.95 will target 100% projection of 131.39 to 128.04 from 130.38 at 127.03. We’ll looking for bottoming above 125.80 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 125.82) . On the upside, break of 130.38 is needed to signal completion of the correction. Otherwise, deeper decline is now mildly in favor.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/JPY 4 Hours Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.59; (P) 124.02; (R1) 124.40; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 125.08 should confirm completion of the corrective decline from 127.07 at 121.63. Further rise should be seen to retest 127.07 high. However, break of 123.18 will turn bias to the downside for 121.63, to extend the correction.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 119.31 support holds. Break of 127.07 will target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67 next. However, firm break of 119.31 will argue that the rise from 114.42 has completed and turn focus back to this low.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.02; (P) 117.40, (R1) 117.77; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with today’s retreat. Rebound from 115.44 short term bottom is in favor to continue. On the upside, break of 117.77 will target 119.00 resistance next. Sustained break there will indicate that whole fall from 122.87 has completed and turn outlook bullish. On the downside, break of 115.44 will resume larger down trend instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet, with the cross staying well inside falling channel. Fall from 137.49 (2018 high) is still in progress for 109.48 (2016 low). Also, in any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 122.87 resistance holds, in case of another rebound.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY edged lower to 118.46 last week but reversed from there. Break of 121.15 resistance argues that fall from 122.87 has completed with three waves down to 118.46. That in turn argues that larger rise from 115.86 is not finished. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 122.87 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 120.09 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 118.46 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as the cross is staying well inside falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). It was also just rejected by 55 week EMA. Break of 115.86 will extend the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.84 support next.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.42), this is the preferred case.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.27; (P) 123.04; (R1) 123.92; More…

EUR/JPY is staying in range below 124.08 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation could extend but overall, further rally is in favor as long as 120.90 support holds. Above 124.08 will target 126.09 key resistance next. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, we’d be cautious on topping around 126.09. Meanwhile, break of 120.90 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 55 days EMA (now at 119.81).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as correcting whole down trend from 149.76 to 109.20. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we’d expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

EUR/JPY 4 Hours Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.99; (P) 120.25; (R1) 120.49; More….

EUR/JPY failed to sustain above 120.63 minor resistance and retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 191.11 support holds, outlook remains cautiously bullish and further rise is in favor. On the upside above 120.68 will target a test on 121.46 resistance firm Break will resume whole rise form 115.86 and target 123.35 structural resistance.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be formed at 115.86, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, ahead of 114.84 support. Decisive of 120.78 support turned resistance will affirm this case and bring further rise to falling channel resistance (now at 125.32). Reactions from there would decide whether the medium term trend has reversed. For now, further rise is expected as long as 117.07 support holds.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

EUR/JPY is staying in corrective corrective trading below 134.37 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. We’re favoring the case that medium term up trend is nearly ready to resume. Break of 134.48 will target 61.8% projection of 127.55 to 134.48 from 131.16 at 135.44 and then 100% projection at 138.09. However, firm break of 131.16 support will now indicate near term trend reversal and turn outlook bearish for 127.55 key support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.55; (P) 132.92; (R1) 133.47; More….

EUR/JPY is staying in corrective corrective trading below 134.37 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. We’re favoring the case that medium term up trend is nearly ready to resume. Break of 134.48 will target 61.8% projection of 127.55 to 134.48 from 131.16 at 135.44 and then 100% projection at 138.09. However, firm break of 131.16 support will now indicate near term trend reversal and turn outlook bearish for 127.55 key support.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will suggest medium term topping and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.

EUR/JPY 4 Hours Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.49; (P) 120.92; (R1) 121.48; More….

With 120.09 minor support intact, further rise is still in favor in EUR/JPY, for 122.87 resistance. Current development argues that larger rebound from 115.85 is still in progress. Break of 122.87 will confirm this bullish case. On the downside, however, break of 120.09 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 118.46 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as the cross is staying well inside falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). It was also just rejected by 55 week EMA. Break of 115.86 will extend the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.84 support next.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.28; (P) 120.88; (R1) 121.50; More…..

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation from 119.31 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further decline is in favor with 122.11 minor resistance intact. On the downside, break of 119.31 will resume the fall from 124.43 to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 124.43 at 118.24. However, break of 122.11 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 124.43 instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.59 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 day EMA (now at 119.39) holds. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.94; (P) 120.17; (R1) 120.50; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. As long as 191.11 support holds, outlook remains cautiously bullish and further rise is in favor. On the upside above 120.68 will target a test on 121.46 resistance firm Break will resume whole rise form 115.86 and target 123.35 structural resistance.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be formed at 115.86, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, ahead of 114.84 support. Decisive of 120.78 support turned resistance will affirm this case and bring further rise to falling channel resistance (now at 125.32). Reactions from there would decide whether the medium term trend has reversed. For now, further rise is expected as long as 117.07 support holds.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.35; (P) 121.79; (R1) 122.06; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. We’re still favoring the case that consolidation from 120.78 has completed with three waves to 123.35. Below 121.31 will target retest of 120.78 first. Break will resume fall from 127.50 to 118.62 low. In case of another rise as consolidation from 120.78 extends, upside should be limited by 123.73 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 is still in progress with the cross staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 118.62 will extend the fall to 109.48 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 127.50 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.46; (P) 128.01; (R1) 128.36; More….

At this point, we’re still favoring the case of short term bottoming at 126.63. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 130.20 resistance first. Break will pave the way for 133.12 high. On the downside, below 127.24 will turn bias to the downside. Break of 126.63 will extend the fall from 133.12 to retest 124.89 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.58; (P) 120.79; (R1) 121.15; More….

EUR/JPY recovered after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA, but stays below 121.46 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral and some more consolidation could be seen. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained above 191.11 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 121.46 will resume the rise from 115.86 to 161.8% projection of 115.86 to 120.01 from 117.07 at 123.78 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom is formed at 115.86, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, ahead of 114.84 support. Decisive of 120.78 support turned resistance will affirm this case and bring further rise to falling channel resistance (now at 125.82). Reactions from there would decide whether the medium term has reversed. For now, further rise is expected as long as 117.07 support holds.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

EUR/JPY breached 134.87 to 134.97 but quickly retreated. Upside momentum is also weak as seen in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Overall, near term outlook stays bullish as long as 132.04 support holds. Above 134.97 will resume medium term rally and target 61.8% projection of 114.84 to 134.39 from 132.04 at 144.12.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 132.04 support will suggest medium term topping and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back 55 week EMA (now at 127.82).

EUR/JPY 4 Hours Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY recovered to 125.23 last week but failed to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA and reversed. The development is inline with the view that fall from 126.79, which is the third leg of pattern from 127.50, is still in progress. Initial bias stays neutral this week first with focus on 124.09. Break there will turn bias to the downside for 123.65 and below. On the upside, however, break of 125.23 resistance will now suggest short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) yet. Break of 123.39 support will favor of down trend extension and target 118.62 low. However, break of 127.50 will solidify the case of medium term bullish reversal. Further decisive break medium term channel resistance will affirm reversal and target 133.12 key resistance and above.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. Break of 118.62 will extend this falling leg through 109.03 low. On the upside, break of 133.12 resistance bring retest of 149.76 (2014 high).