EUR/JPY recovered further last week as consolidations from 120.78 extended. Further rise could be seen initially this week. But upside should be limited by 123.73 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, below 121.65 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 120.78 low. Decisive break there will resume the decline from 127.50 and target 118.62 low next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 is still in progress with the cross staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 118.62 will extend the fall to 109.48 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 127.50 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. Break of 118.62 will extend this falling leg through 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA, this is now the preferred case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.42; (P) 124.96; (R1) 125.57; More….

EUR/JPY’s strong break of 125.58 indicates resumption of whole rise from 114.42. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 100% projection of 114.42 to 124.43 from 119.31 at 129.32. On the downside, break of 124.31 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 day EMA (now at 121.81) holds. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.21; (P) 121.71; (R1) 122.23; More…

EUR/JPY is staying in the consolidation from 124.08 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is in favor as long as 120.90 support holds. Above 124.08 will target 126.09 key resistance next. As rise from 109.20 is still seen as a corrective pattern, we’d be cautious on topping around 126.09. Meanwhile, break of 120.90 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 55 days EMA (now at 120.43) and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we’d expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way to retest 109.20.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.91; (P) 133.52; (R1) 134.56; More….

The break of 133.85 resistance argue that correction from 134.48 could be completed at 131.16 already. Intraday bias is on the upside for 134.48 first. Decisive break there will confirm up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.55 to 134.48 from 131.16 at 135.44 and then 100% projection at 138.09. On the downside, below 133.23 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.

EUR/JPY’s sharp decline and break of 118.23 resistance confirmed resumption of whole fall from 124.08. More importantly, the development argues that whole medium term rebound from 109.20 is completed at 124.08 already. Deep fall is now expected ahead.

Further fall is expected this week as long as 118.78 minor resistance holds. EUR/JPY should now target 61.8% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 114.88 next. On the upside, above 118.78 will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound back to 119.31/120.43 resistance zone. That also coincides with 55 day EMA (now at 120.19). In that case, we’re look at the reactions in this resistance zone to assess the outlook again.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39 indicates that medium term rise from 109.20 is completed at 124.08. That’s well below 126.09 key support turned resistance. Also, EUR/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA. Deeper decline would now be seen back to 109.20 low. Overall, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is not completed yet. Break of 109.20 will resume such down trend towards 94.11 low. In any case, break of 126.09 is needed needed to confirm medium term reversal.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Decisive break of 126.09 will indicate that such decline is completed and EUR/JPY has started another medium term rally already. Before that, deeper fall is mildly in favor towards 94.11 low. Overall, long term range trading will continue.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.15; (P) 131.67; (R1) 131.96; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for some consolidation below 132.35 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 129.57 support to bring rise resumption. On the up side, break of 132.35 will target 100% projection of 114.42 to 127.07 from 121.63 at 134.28.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 137.49 (2018 high). Decisive break there will open up the possibility that it’s indeed resuming the up trend from 94.11 (2012 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.74; (P) 158.23; (R1) 158.40; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 159.47 short term top holds. Correction from there would extend further with another falling leg. On the downside, break of 156.85 will bring deeper decline to 55 D EMA (now at 155.97) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 139.05 at 163.06. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest long term resistance at 169.96. This will remain the favored case as long as 151.39 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.20; (P) 164.51; (R1) 165.08; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key resistance next. However, decisive break of 162.26 support will argue that it’s at least correcting the rise from 153.15, and target 38.2% retracement of 153.15 to 165.33 at 160.67.

In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low), which is still in progress. Next target is 169.96 (2008 high). Break of 160.20 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.46; (P) 147.96; (R1) 148.81; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside at this point, with focus on 148.38 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend, and next target will be 149.76 long term resistance. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 146.39 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 140.70) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance (2014 high). Decisive break there will resume long term up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 153.64.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.18; (P) 124.59; (R1) 125.15; More….

EUR/JPY is still limited below 125.08 resistance despite current rebound. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, below 123.01 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 127.07 at 122.23. Firm break there will confirm resumption of whole corrective fall from 127.07, and target 61.8% retracement at 119.25, which is close to 119.31 key support. On the upside, though, break of 125.08 will target a retest on 127.07 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 119.31 support holds. Break of 127.07 will target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67 next. However, firm break of 119.31 will argue that the rise from 114.42 has completed and turn focus back to this low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.73; (P) 123.56; (R1) 124.19; More…

No change in EUR/JPY’s outlook as consolidation from 125.80 is still in progress. Deeper fall could be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 114.84 to 125.80 at 121.61 to bring rise resumption. We’re staying mildly bullish in the cross. And, break of 126.09 key resistance will extend the whole rebound from 109.03 to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89. Nonetheless, firm break of 121.61 will dampen our bullish view and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 119.02.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.91; (P) 131.60; (R1) 132.17; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. In case of another rise, we’ll stay cautious on strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 137.49 to 129.34 at 132.45 to finish the corrective rise from 129.34. Below 130.95 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 129.34. Break of 129.34 will resume the whole decline from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level. Nonetheless, sustained break of 132.45 will target 61.8% retracement at 134.37 first, before resuming the fall from 137.49.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.65; (P) 128.99; (R1) 129.42; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral for now, as it recovered just ahead of 127.91 key support. On the upside, break of 129.97 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for rebound back towards 133.44 high. On the downside, however, break of 127.91 will extend the whole corrective pattern from 134.11, to 126.58 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.53; (P) 125.92; (R1) 126.29; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 127.07. Further rise is still expected as long as 124.44 support holds. Break of 127.07 will target 128.67 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 124.44 will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.54) holds. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

EUR/JPY dipped to 122.39 but drew support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week for 125.80/126.09 resistance zone. Decisive break of 126.09 will extend the whole rebound from 109.03 to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89. In case of another fall as consolidation from 125.80 extends, we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 114.84 to 125.80 at 121.61 to bring rebound and then rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. We’re not seeing any sign of an established long term trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong support at 94.11 in case of another fall. Also, there could be strong resistance at 149.76 in case of a medium term rise.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.47; (P) 160.79; (R1) 161.19; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside despite loss of momentum. Firm break of 161.84 will confirm resumption of whole rise from 153.15. Next target is a retest on 164.29 high. On the downside, below 160.36 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally is expected as long as 158.06 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 164.29 medium term top are seen as a correction to rise from 139.05 only. As long as 148.38 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is expected to resume through 164.29 at a later stage. Next target would be 169.96 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.98; (P) 132.35; (R1) 132.66; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and range trading continues. As long as 131.16 support holds, further rise is mildly in favor. Decisive break of 134.48 will resume medium term rise from 114.84 and target 141.04 resistance next. However, sustained break of 131.16 support will now indicate near term trend reversal and turn outlook bearish for 127.55 key support.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will suggest medium term topping and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.17; (P) 118.99; (R1) 120.44; More….

EUR/JPY’s rebound from 115.86 resumed after brief volatility. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 123.35 to 115.86 at 120.48 next. Sustained break will target 123.35 key resistance. On the downside, break of 117.55 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 115.86.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s seen as a falling leg of multi-year sideway pattern. Deeper fall could be seen to 109.48 (2016 low and below). On the upside, break of 120.78 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.73; (P) 120.02; (R1) 120.51; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Below 119.31 will extend fall from 122.88 to 118.23 low. But we’d expect strong support from 118.45 key cluster support level (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 120.81 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 124.08 high. Overall, price actions from 124.08 are developing into a consolidative pattern and upside breakout is expected later.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that medium term rise from 109.20 is still in progress. Focus is on 126.09 key resistance level. Sustained break will confirm completion of the whole decline from 149.76. And rise from 109.20 is of the same degree as the fall from 149.76. In such case, further rally would be seen to 104.04 resistance and possibly above before topping. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09, or firm break of 118.45 cluster support, will likely extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.70; (P) 128.93; (R1) 129.28; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral with focus on 38.2% retracement of 124.89 to 130.86 at 128.57. As long as 128.57 holds, another rise is still mildly in favor. On the upside, above 129.83 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 130.86 first and then resistance zone between 131.97 and 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 124.61 at 132.56. However, firm break of 128.57 will argue that rebound from 124.89 has completed, and it’s the third leg of consolidation pattern from 124.61. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 124.61/89.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY once again rebounded ahead of 124.08 key resistance turned support. It’s also held well above long term trend line from 109.03 (2016 low). The development argues that such rise from 109.03 might not be over yet. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 124.61 at 132.56 will pave the way to retest 137.49 high. But, firm break of 124.08 will argue that whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 next.