EUR/JPY edged higher to 173.21 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise is expected as long as 170.78 support holds. On the upside, break of 173.21 will target 138.2% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 161.06 at 174.03. Break there will bring retest of 175.41 high. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 170.78 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 (2024 high) are seen as correction to up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 175.41 will confirm long term up trend resumption.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) has concluded. But firm break of 175.41 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.




















































