EURJPY Outlook

EUR/JPY's rise from 182.10 resumed by breaking 186.30 last week. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week for retesting 187.93 high. Nevertheless, since this rebound is viewed as a corrective move, strong resistance should be seen from 187.93 to limit upside. On the downside, below 185.32 support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 180.17) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA holds.

EUR/JPY's rally from 0.8979 continued last week and there is no clear sign of topping. Initial bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379. On the downside, below 0.9273 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.9214) holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of medium term falling trend line resistance indicates that 0.8979 is already a medium term bottom. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, rise from there should at least be reversing the fall from 0.9928, with prospect of developing into a medium term up trend. Firm break of 0.9394 resistance will add more credence to this case. For now risk will remain on the upside as long as 0.9094 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9407 support turned resistance (2022 low) holds. However, firm break of 0.9407 will argue that the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 in the medium term.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally would target a retest on 187.93 high. However, as the rise from 182.01 is still viewed as a corrective move, upside should be limited by 187.93. On the downside, below 185.32 support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 180.15) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.