Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0466; (P) 1.0505; (R1) 1.0583; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside for the moment with focus on 1.0609 fibonacci level. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implication and target next level at 1.1273. However, break of 1.0427 minor support will indicate rejection by 1.1273, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0222 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was in place at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Even as a corrective rise, rally from 0.9534 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0566) will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273. However, rejection by 1.0609 will retain medium term bearishness for down trend resumption at a later stage.

EUR/USD’s correction from 1.1829 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Downside of the pullback should be 1.1630 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.1829 will resume the rise from 1.0176 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, sustained break of 1.1630 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1467) instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom was in place already at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019. Rejection by 1.2019 will keep the price actions from 0.9534 as a corrective pattern. But sustained break of 1.2019 will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0780; (P) 1.0834; (R1) 1.0888; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 1.0176 should target 161.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.0531 from 1.0358 at 1.0932. Firm break there will pave the way back to 1.1274 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0764 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0675) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1903; (P) 1.1937; (R1) 1.1961; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.1846 will resume the fall from 1.2265, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, to 1.1703 support. On the upside, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1983) will bring stronger rise back to 1.2265 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

EUR/USD’s decline continued to stall above 1.0199 fibonacci level last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0435 resistance holds. Decisive break of 1.0199 will resume the whole fall from 1.1213 to 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0330 from 1.0629 at 1.0083.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2023 high) should either be the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low), or another down leg of the long term down trend. In both cases, sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 will pave the way back to 0.9534. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0629 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, down trend from 1.6039 remains in force with EUR/USD staying well inside falling channel, and upside of rebound capped by 55 M EMA (now at 1.0973). Consolidation from 0.9534 could extend further and another rising leg might be seem. But as long as 1.1274 resistance holds, eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0916; (P) 1.0961; (R1) 1.1044; More…

Outlook is EUR/USD remains unchanged. Rebound from 1.0777 is seen as a correction to fall from 1.1239 to 1.0777. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1239 to 1.0777 at 1.1063. On the downside, break of 1.0931 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0777 low. However, sustained break of 1.1063 will raise the chance of larger reversal and target 1.1239 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed and prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Sustained break of 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813 will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1239 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1954; (P) 1.1981 (R1) 1.2015; More….

While EUR/USD continues to lose downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, there is no sign of a rebound yet. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Current fall should target 200% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1891. Break will target 261.8% projection at 1.1730. On the upside, though, break of 1.2031 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2090) or above.

In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. With current downside acceleration, there is prospect of hitting 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 before completing the decline. But still, we’ll need to look at the structure to before deciding if it’s a corrective or impulsive move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2173; (P) 1.2231 (R1) 1.2265; More….

EUR/USD drops to as low as 1.2184 so far and the break of 1.2214 support revived the case of medium term reversal. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2514 support first. Decisive break there will confirm the bearish case and target 161.8% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1991. On the upside, 1.2250 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 1.2413 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Firm break of 1.2154 support will confirm rejection by this fibonacci level. And in that case, a medium term top is at least formed at 1.2555. EUR/USD should then head back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. We’ll look at the structure and momentum of such decline before decision if it’s an impulsive or corrective move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1551; (P) 1.1578; (R1) 1.1610; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. Further decline remains mildly in favor below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1620). Break of 1.1467 support will resume the decline from 1.1917 to 1.1390 support next. However, sustained trading above 55 D EMA will argue that fall from 1.1971 has completed as a correction only, and bring further rise to 1.1727 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1306) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook outlook bearish.

EUR/USD’s decline continued last week and hit as low as 1.1185. But as a temporary low was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Further decline is still in favor as long as 1.1373 resistance holds. Break of 1.1185 will target 161.8% projection of 1.1908 to 1.1523 from 1.1691 at 1.1068 next. However, firm break of 1.1373 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD has possibly failed 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) again. Long term outlook will remain neutral as sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low) is extending with another medium term fall. For now, we’d hold back from assessing the chance of downside breakout, and monitor the momentum of the decline from 1.2348 first.

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.1729 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 1.1589 support holds. Above 1.1729 will bring retest of 1.1829 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.1589 will turn bias to the downside, and extend the corrective pattern from 11829 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom was in place already at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019. Rejection by 1.2019 will keep the price actions from 0.9534 as a corrective pattern. But sustained break of 1.2019 will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

EUR/USD recovered after initial fall to 1.1300 last week. The break of 1.1430 minor resistance indicates short term bottoming, on mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week, for rebound to 1.1509 support turned resistance and possibly above. However, we’d expect upside to be limited below 1.1745 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1300 support is now needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, near term outlook is neutral for more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA adds bearishness to the case. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1495; (P) 1.1558 (R1) 1.1590; More…..

EUR/USD drops sharply to as low as 1.1437 so far today. The strong break of 1.1507 support confirms resumption of larger down trend from 1.2555. Intraday bias is back on the downside. 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 is already met. Next target will be 61.8% at 1.1186. On the upside, break of 1.1627 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong recovery.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1851 resistance holds.

Despite decline attempt, EUR/USD drew support from 55 day EMA and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. We’re favoring the case that consolidation fro 1.2445 has completed at 1.2238 already. And rebound from 1.2154 would resume soon. Above 1.2445 will target a test on 1.2555 high, which is close to 1.2516 key long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.2238 will turn bias back to the downside, to resume the fall from 1.2555 through 1.2154.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action from 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive pattern. Reaction to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 will give important clue to the underlying momentum.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1700; (P) 1.1723; (R1) 1.1746; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 1.1663 support will resume the fall from 1.2265, and the pattern from 1.2348, to 1.1602 key support next. On the upside, however, above 1.1754 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1908 again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

EUR/USD dropped to 1.2214 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. As long as 1.2344 minor resistance holds, further decline is expected. Break of 1.2214 will target 1.2154 key support first. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci resistance. In that case, whole decline from 1.2555 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 next. However, break of 1.2344 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2475 and above to extend recent range trading.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action from 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive pattern. Reaction to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 will give important clue to the underlying momentum.

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.1916 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.1695 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.1916 will target will extend larger rally from 1.0635 to 161.8% projection of 1.0774 to 1.1422 from 1.1255 at 1.2303. However, firm break of 1.1695 should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside to wards 1.1422 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1748). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1623; (P) 1.1664; (R1) 1.1687; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 1.1612 support. Break there will confirm resumption of the corrective decline from 1.2011. Further fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2011 at 1.1485. On the upside, above 1.1704 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1880 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/USD rebounded to as high as 1.1639 last week. The break of medium term channel resistance, with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, suggests medium term bottoming at 1.1300. Initial bias is on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. We’d expect upside to be limited there, at least on initial attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, below 1.1529 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.1300 low. But after all, consolidation from 1.1300 will extend for a while before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300 and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA adds bearishness to the case. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

EUR/USD surged to as high as 1.1802 last week but failed to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. At this point, we maintain our view that 1.1779 should limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1649 minor support will be the first signal that corrective rise from 1.1300 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.1525 support first. Break will confirm and bring retest of 1.1300 low. However, sustained break of 1.1779 will extend the corrective rise from 1.1300 to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958 before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.