Wed, Oct 05, 2022 @ 11:57 GMT

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1122; (P) 1.1167 (R1) 1.1192; More….

EUR/USD is still staying in range of 1.1109/1295 and intraday bias remains neutral. Focus stays on 1.1298 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0932). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0795; (P) 1.0823; (R1) 1.0843; More

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Corrective pattern from 1.0635 could extend further. On the upside, above 1.0895 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.1019 resistance. But overall, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0727 will target a test on 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1654; (P) 1.1687 (R1) 1.1726; More…..

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook as consolidation from 1.1507 is in progress. Stronger recovery could be seen. But upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. The larger decline from 1.2555 is expected to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 1.1507 will target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 and then 61.8% retracement at 1.1186.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2300; (P) 1.2335 (R1) 1.2387; More….

EUR/USD’s recovery was limited well below 1.2403 minor resistance and weakens sharply. Intraday bias stays neutral with focus back of 1.2222. On the downside, sustained break of 1.2222 key support should confirm rejection from 1.2516 key fibonacci level, as well as near term reversal, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. That could also signal completion of medium term up trend from 1.0339. In that case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2537 at 1.1697. On the upside, though, above 1.2403 minor resistance will revive bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2537.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1898; (P) 1.1951; (R1) 1.1977; More…..

EUR/USD retreats ahead of 1.2011 high and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.2011 will resume whole rally from 1.0635 low. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1602 at 1.2452. On the downside, break of 1.1800 support will turn bias to the downside, to extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2011 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1736; (P) 1.1770 (R1) 1.1820; More

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment and some sideway trading could be seen above 1.1716 temporary low. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1.2029 resistance holds. Decline from 1.2091 is seen as correcting whole rise from 1.0569. Below 1.1716 will target 1.1661 support and then 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510, where we’re expecting support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But after all, break of 1.1661 is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1113; (P) 1.1144; (R1) 1.1175; More…..

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation above 1.1111 temporary low. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 1.1324 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1111 will extend down trend to 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.0895.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186 was also taken out. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1777; (P) 1.1799 (R1) 1.1817; More

The break of 1.1780 minor support argues that rebound from 1.1669 is completed. Also, correction from 1.2091 is still in progress. Intraday bias is turned back tot he downside for 1.1669 first. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. Strong support is expected there to complete the correction. On the upside, above 1.1879 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2091 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It’s expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0716; (P) 1.0742 (R1) 1.0774; More…..

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook. Rebound from 1.0339 could extend higher with 1.0588 minor support intact. Still, such rise is seen as a corrective move and should be limited by 1.0872 resistance. On the downside, below 1.0588 minor support will argue that it’s completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0339 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1713; (P) 1.1764; (R1) 1.1798; More…..

Despite breaching 1.1732 support to 1.1719, EUR/USD quickly recovered and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.1830 will resume the rebound from 1.1612 to retest 1.2011 high. On the downside, through, break of 1.1719 will suggest that correction from 1.2011 is extending with another leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1612 and below.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1824; (P) 1.1862; (R1) 1.1884; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is mildly in favor with 1.1754 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2011 will resume whole rise form 1.0635. Nevertheless, on the downside, firm break of 1.1754 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2011 at 1.1485, to correct the rise from 1.6035.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1716; (P) 1.1762 (R1) 1.1792; More…..

EUR/USD continues to be bounded in tight range below 1.1839. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.1713 minor support suggest completion of the correction fro 1.1509. Intraday would be turned back to the downside to resume larger fall from 1.2555, through 1.1509 to 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 1.1995 resistance to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1178; (P) 1.1220 (R1) 1.1280; More….

With 1.1161 minor support intact, intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for further rally. We stay cautious on strong resistance from 1.1245/98 (138.2% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0569 at 1.1245) resistance zone to limit upside and bring reversal. However, decisive break of 1.1298 will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.1161 minor support will turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD now far above 55 week EMA. Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1171; (P) 1.1207; (R1) 1.1234; More…..

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook. While recovery from 1.1026 might extend, we’d still expect strong resistance from 1.1282 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.1133 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Break of 1.1026 will extend the downtrend from 1.2555. Though, break of 1.1282 will turn focus back to 1.1412 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that down trend from 1.2555 (2018) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1280; (P) 1.1321; (R1) 1.1371; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1215 is in progress. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited below 1.1499 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1214 will target 1.1186 fibonacci level first. Break will target 61.8% projection of 1.2555 to 1.1300 from 1.1814 at 1.1038 next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1266; (P) 1.1330; (R1) 1.1371; More…..

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1569 extends to as low as 1.1289 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1215 support. Break will resume larger down trend from 1.2555. On the upside, break of 1.1394 resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 1.1215 is extending with another rise. And, intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 1.1569 and above.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1411; (P) 1.1438; (R1) 1.1482; More…..

EUR/USD dipped to 1.1358, breached 1.1363 minor support, but quickly recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Overall outlook remains bearish with 1.1499 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.1358 should bring retest of 1.1215 low first. Break will resume medium term down trend. However, on the upside, firm break of 1.1499 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

Despite dipping to 1.1432, EUR/USD drew support from 1.1431 low and recovered. The development suggests that consolidation from 1.1431 is extending with another leg. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Near term outlook will remain mildly bearish as long as 1.1621 resistance holds. Below 1.1431 will resume the fall form 1.1814 to retest 1.1300 low. Nonetheless, break of 1.1621 will turn focus back to 1.1814 instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0760; (P) 1.0791 (R1) 1.0812; More

EUR/USD’s decline resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0758 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.0495. On the upside, break of 1.0922 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1310; (P) 1.1391; (R1) 1.1413; More……

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.1107 to 1.1347 from 1.1181 at 1.1142 first. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.1569 next. On the downside, below 1.1365 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.1181 support holds.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1107 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. Reactions from there could indicate whether rebound from 1.1107 is a corrective rise or reversing medium term trend.