Sun, May 09, 2021 @ 16:52 GMT

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s up trend resumed last week and hit as high as 1.2272. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1602 at 1.2452 next. On the downside, break of 1.2058 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0826; (P) 1.0839; (R1) 1.0848; More

EUR/USD is losing some downside momentum but intraday bias stays on the downside for 161.8% projection of 1.1172 to 1.0992 from 1.1095 at 1.0804. Break there will target 200% projection at 1.0735 next. On the upside, above 1.0888 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But recovery should be limited by 1.0992 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed and prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Sustained break of 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813 will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1239 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0543; (P) 1.0576 (R1) 1.0631; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.0520 temporary low. As long as 1.0713 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is still expected. We’re holding on to the view that fall from 1.0828 is resuming the larger down trend. Below 1.0520 will target a test on 1.0339 low. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view and target parity. However, above 1.0713 will dampen out view and turn focus back to 1.0828 instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1814; (P) 1.1849 (R1) 1.1881; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. As long as 1.1712 support holds, rise from 1.1553 is expected to continue. Above 1.1960 will target 1.2091 high first. Break there will resume medium term up trend from 1.0339 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.2494, which is close to 1.2516 long term fibonacci level. We’d expect strong resistance from there to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1712 will indicate completion of the rise from 1.1553 and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1393) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0836; (P) 1.0881; (R1) 1.0963; More

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned to the upside with break of 1.0895 minor resistance. Further rise would be seen to 1.1019 and above as corrective pattern from 1.0635 extends with another up leg. But still, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0774 should turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1173; (P) 1.1213 (R1) 1.1251; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it’s staying in range of 1.1111/1264. More consolidation could be seen and stronger rise cannot be ruled out, even through 1.1264 resistance. But still outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1324 resistance holds. Larger down trend is expected to resume sooner or later. On the downside, break of 1.1111 low will target 100% projection of 1.1569 to 1.1176 from 1.1448 at 1.1105 next. However, firm break of 1.1324 will be an early sign of larger trend reversal. In such case, further rise would be seen back to 1.1448 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is still in progress. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1757; (P) 1.1786 (R1) 1.1800; More….

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1960 extends to as low as 1.1742 so far. With 1.1712 support intact, we’re still treating it as a correction. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, above 1.1847 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1960 first. Break will resume whole rise from 1.1553 and target 1.2091 high. However, decisive break of 1.1712 will indicate completion of the rise from 1.1553 and turn near term outlook bearish for this support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1393) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1618; (P) 1.1676 (R1) 1.1707; More…..

EUR/USD’s decline resumes after brief recovery and reaches as low as 1.1606 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall from 1.2555 is in progress for 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 next. On the upside, above 1.1727 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But after all, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1995 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2049) holds.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD stayed in corrective trading below 1.2019 last week. But downside is contained above 1.1822 support so far. Hence, near term outlook remains bullish. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Above 1.1994 will target 1.2091 high. Break there will extend larger rise from 1.0339 and target next key fibonacci level at 1.2516. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1822 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.1661 support and below.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall fro 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But after all, break of 1.1661 is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is now seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action form 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive move. But in either case, further rally would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Weekly Chart

EUR/USD Monthly Chart

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1359; (P) 1.1392 (R1) 1.1454; More…..

EUR/USD is staying in range below 1.1444 and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of another fall, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.1291 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Break of 1.1444 will extend the rise from 1.0339 low to 1.1615 resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 1.1291 will turn focus back to 1.1118 support.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.1298 resistance further affirm medium term reversal. That is an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1776). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1118 support holds.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2261; (P) 1.2283; (R1) 1.2319; More

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current rise from 1.0635 should target 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1602 at 1.2452 next. On the downside, below 1.2214 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1702; (P) 1.1796 (R1) 1.1863; More

EUR/USD recovers after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA and intraday bias is turned neutral first. But after all, a short term top is formed at 1.1908 on divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper correction is expected as long as 1.1908 holds. Below 1.1727 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606. We’d expect strong support there to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1795; (P) 1.1853 (R1) 1.1912; More

A temporary top is in place at 1.1908 in EUR/USD. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is expected as long as 1.1612 support holds. Above 1.1908 will target 1.2 psychological level. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we’ll be cautious on topping around there to bring correction. On the downside, break of 1.1612 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.1379).

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1204; (P) 1.1230; (R1) 1.1258; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. More consolidation could be seen above 1.1183 temporary low. But further decline is still in favor as long as 1.1273 minor resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.1176 low will resume whole decline from 1.2555. On the upside, however, break of 1.1273 support turned resistance will confirm short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1448 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term weakness was revived as the weak rebound from 1.1176 was rejected well below 55 week EMA and failed to sustain above 55 day EMA. Focus is back on 1.1176 low, with 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.2555. Such decline target 1.0339 low next. On the upside, firm break of 1.1569 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, downside breakout will be in favor.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0635; (P) 1.0662 (R1) 1.0690; More….

EUR/USD dips mildly but without follow through selling. Intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.0772 resistance and bring another fall. As noted before, corrective rise from 1.0339 is completed at 1.0905. And more importantly, larger down trend is probably resuming. Below 1.0635 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0494. Break will confirm this bearish case and target 1.0339 low. However, above 1.0772 will delay this bearish case and bring another rise back to 1.0905 first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1897; (P) 1.1923 (R1) 1.1944; More

EUR/USD jumps sharply in early US session but it’s staying below 1.2069 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. Another fall cannot be ruled out yet as the consolidation extends. But after all, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1661 holds. Break of 1.2069 will extend larger rise from 1.0339 to next key fibonacci level at 1.2516.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1774) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1328; (P) 1.1371; (R1) 1.1420; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it’s staying in range of 1.1267/1472. As long as 1.1472 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected in the pair. On the downside, break of 1.1267 will target 1.1215 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 for 1.1186 fibonacci level next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 1.1472 will be suggest medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1260; (P) 1.1292; (R1) 1.1331; More…..

EUR/USD’s recovery from 1.1183 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rise could extend to 1.1448 resistance and above. But in that case, we’d expect strong resistance between 1.1448/1569 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.1250 minor support will turn bias to the downside. Decisive break of 1.1176 will resume the down trend from 1.2555.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD has been losing downside momentum around 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. But for now, there is no clear sign of medium term reversal yet. Downside from 1.2555 is expected to resume sooner or later as long as 1.1569 structural resistance holds. Decisive break of 1.1186. could pave the way back to 1.0339 low.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1141; (P) 1.1230; (R1) 1.1284; More…..

EUR/USD reached as low as 1.1176 and break of 1.1215 support indicates resumption of whole down trend from 1.2555. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 100% projection of 1.1814 to 1.1215 from 1.1569 at 1.0970 next. On the upside, above 1.1285 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1419 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 is also met. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1569 resistance will now indicate completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1425; (P) 1.1455 (R1) 1.1516; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 1.1300 short term bottom is still in progress. While further rally would be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1745 resistance to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1444 minor support will suggest that the rebound is completed. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1300 low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 holds, even in case of strong rebound.