Mon, Oct 18, 2021 @ 13:52 GMT

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1742; (P) 1.1785; (R1) 1.1808; More….

Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays on the downside. Further fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694 and possibly below. But we’d expect strong support from 1.1062 to contain downside to complete the correction from 1.2348. Though, break of 1.1988 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2207; (P) 1.2249 (R1) 1.2279; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside for 1.2154 support. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci resistance. In that case, whole decline from 1.2555 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 next. On the upside, above 1.2314 minor resistance will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1387; (P) 1.1417 (R1) 1.1467; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the upside as recovery from 1.1300 short term bottom is in progress for 1.1509 support turned resistance. However, we’d expect upside to be limited below 1.1745 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1300 support is now needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, near term outlook is neutral for more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1122; (P) 1.1167 (R1) 1.1192; More….

EUR/USD is still staying in range of 1.1109/1295 and intraday bias remains neutral. Focus stays on 1.1298 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0932). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0979; (P) 1.1014; (R1) 1.1033; More

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with focus on 1.0992 support. Decisive break there will resume the whole decline from 1.1239. Also, that would add to the case that corrective rebound from 1.0879 has completed at 1.1239. In this case, deeper decline would be seen back to retest 1.0879 low. On the upside, above 1.1033 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1231; (P) 1.1256 (R1) 1.1279; More….

With 1.1109 support intact, further rise is still expected in EUR/USD. Decisive break of 1.1298 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. Nonetheless, we’d stay cautious on rejection from 1.1298. Break of 1.1109 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0888). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1871; (P) 1.1896; (R1) 1.1944; More

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.1846 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.1846 will resume the fall from 1.2265, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, to 1.1703 support. On the upside, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2010) will bring stronger rise back to 1.2265 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1243; (P) 1.1288; (R1) 1.1317; More….

EUR/USD is staying in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.1348 will argue that consolidation from 1.1422 has possible completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside, to resume the rally from 1.0635 through 1.1422 to 1.1496 key resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1168 will extend the correction from 1.1422 and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.1422 at 1.1121.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1754; (P) 1.1790 (R1) 1.1843; More

Break of 1.1832 resistance suggests that the corrective pull back from 1.2091 has completed at 1.1669 already, ahead of 1.1661 support, on bullish convergence condition in hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for further rise for retesting 1.2091 high. We’ll be cautious on strong resistance from there to bring another fall to extend the consolidation. On the downside, below 1.1755 will turn bias back to the downside and could extend the correction from 1.2091 through 1.1669.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It’s expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2232; (P) 1.2261 (R1) 1.2308; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. But as long as 1.2344 minor resistance holds, further decline is expected. Break of 1.2214 will target 1.2154 key support first. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci resistance. In that case, whole decline from 1.2555 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 next. However, break of 1.2344 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2475 and above to extend recent range trading.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1702; (P) 1.1796 (R1) 1.1863; More

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, a short term top is formed at 1.1908 on divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper correction is expected as long as 1.1908 holds. Below 1.1727 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606. We’d expect strong support there to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1501; (P) 1.1551 (R1) 1.1623; More…..

EUR/USD’s rebound form 1.1300 is still in progress and reaches as high as 1.1600 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally. But upside should be limited by 1.1745 resistance to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1493 minor support will suggest that the rebound is completed. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1300 low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD rebounded to as high as 1.1448 last week but failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and reversed. It’s also kept well below 55 week EMA too. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for retesting 1.1176. Decisive break there will resume whole decline from 1.2555. On the upside, above 1.1448 will resume the rebound from 1.1176 to 1.1569 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlooks is a bit mixed for now as there are conflicting signals. We’ll turn neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186 will resume the whole down trend from 1.2555. Next target will be 1.0339 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.1569 resistance should confirm medium term bottoming. Stronger rebound should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1176 at 1.1703. In that case, the structure of the rise from 1.1176 and reaction to 1.1703 fibonacci level will be watched for making an assessment on whether medium term trend has reversed, or rebound form 1.1176 is merely a correction.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1569 resistance holds.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1116; (P) 1.1154; (R1) 1.1176; More

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1133 minor support argues that rebound from 1.1026 has completed at 1.1249 already, after failing to sustain above 55 day EMA. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.1026 low. Firm break there will extend the downtrend from 1.2555. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1282 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that down trend from 1.2555 (2018) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1254; (P) 1.1294; (R1) 1.1360; More….

EUR/USD’s breach of 1.1340 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.1422 might have completed at 1.1212 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 1.1422. Break will resume whole rebound form 1.0635 and target 1.1495 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1212 will resume the fall from 1.1422 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.1422 at 1.1121.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2118; (P) 1.2152; (R1) 1.2200; More

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.2265 will resume the rise from 1.1703 to retest 1.2348 high. On the downside, below 1.2103 will target 1.1985 support. Break there will confirm that consolidation pattern from 1.2348 has started the third leg. Deeper fall would then be seen back to 1.1703 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0897; (P) 1.0911; (R1) 1.0931; More

Intraday bias in EUR?USD remains on the downside for 1.0879 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend for 1.0813 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.0957 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited by 1.0992 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective that might have completed after rejection by 55 week EMA. Break of 1.0879 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) for 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.1239 resistance holds.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1019; (P) 1.1044; (R1) 1.1071; More

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.0926 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited below 1.1164 resistance to bring down trend resumption. Break of 1.0926 will resume lager down trend from 1.2555. However, firm break of 1.1164 will turn near term outlook bullish for 1.1412 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1920 last week but failed to extend gain and retreated sharply. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.1920 will reaffirm the case that consolidation from 1.2011 has completed at 1.1602. Further rise would be seen to retest 1.2011 high. However, break of 1.1745 support will turn bias to the downside to extend the consolidation with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1576). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD recovered after initial fall to 1.1300 last week. The break of 1.1430 minor resistance indicates short term bottoming, on mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week, for rebound to 1.1509 support turned resistance and possibly above. However, we’d expect upside to be limited below 1.1745 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1300 support is now needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, near term outlook is neutral for more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA adds bearishness to the case. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.