Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1119; (P) 1.1153; (R1) 1.1211; More…

EUR/USD rises to as high as 1.1210 so far. Breach of 1.1199 resistance suggests resumption of whole rebound from 1.0879. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 100% projection of 1.0879 to 1.1179 from 1.0981 at 1.1281 next. In any case, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.1066 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0962; (P) 1.0981 (R1) 1.1015; More….

A temporary top is in place at 1.1030 with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral for consolidation. Another rise will be expected as long as 1.0874 support holds. Above 1.1020 will extend current rally to 100% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0569 at 1.1058. However, rise from 1.0339 is still seen as a corrective move. Hence we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1058 projection to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.0874 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0569 support first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate long term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2315; (P) 1.2358 (R1) 1.2386; More….

EUR/USD’s sharp decline today now put 1.2214 support in focus. Decisive break there will revive the case of trend reversal, after rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci resistance. In that case, outlook will be turned bearish for 1.2154 support and below.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2146; (P) 1.2179; (R1) 1.2233; More….

EUR/USD rises to as high as 1.2249 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rise from 1.0635 should target 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1602 at 1.2452 next. On the downside, break of 1.2058 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

EUR/USD’s sharp decline last week suggests that rebound from 1.1026 has completed at 1.1249, after failing to sustain above 55 day EMA (now at 1.1202). Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.1026 low first. Decisive break there will extend the downtrend from 1.2555. On the downside, above 1.1130 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside to extend the corrective. But in that case, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1282 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1632) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1359; (P) 1.1392 (R1) 1.1454; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment with focus on 1.1444 resistance. Break there will resume whole rise from 1.0339 low and target 1.1615 resistance next. In case consolidation from 1.1444 extends with another fall, downside should be contained by 1.1291 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Meanwhile, break of 1.1291 will turn focus back to 1.1118 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.1298 resistance further affirm medium term reversal. That is an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1776). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1118 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2114; (P) 1.2130; (R1) 1.2142; More…

EUR/USD is staying in consolidations from 1.2148 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.2148 will reaffirm the case that correction from 1.2348 has completed with three waves down to 1.1951. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.2188 and then 1.2348 high. However, break of 1.2053 minor support will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 1.1951 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1768; (P) 1.1796; (R1) 1.1832; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. Consolidation form 1.2011 is still extending. Another fall could be seen to 1.1602. On the upside, break of 1.1920 will resume the rise from 1.1602 for resting 1.2011 high. Overall, sideway trading will continue for the near term.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0669; (P) 1.0687; (R1) 1.0703; More…

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation above 1.0610 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Risk stays on the downside with 1.0803 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.0610 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1032 and 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463. Strong support should be seen around there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, the rally from 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium term up trend rather than a correction. Further rise is in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.0482 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2152; (P) 1.2171; (R1) 1.2190; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the upside for 1.2222 minor resistance. Break there will bring retest of 1.2348 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.2052 support will extend the correction from 1.2348. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.2348 at 1.1887.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1213; (P) 1.1239; (R1) 1.1275; More…

The break of 1.1268 minor resistance suggests that that fall from 1.1412 has completed at 1.1193 already, ahead of 1.1181 support. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 1.1412 first. Break will resume the whole rebound from 1.1107. On the downside, break of 1.1193 will turn bias back to the downside to retest 1.1107 low instead.

In the bigger picture, bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD suggests that 1.1107 is a medium term bottom. However, rejection by 55 EMA retains medium term bearish. Outlook will be neutral for now. On the downside, break of 1.1107 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Meanwhile, break of 1.1412 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1446; (P) 1.1466 (R1) 1.1498; More…..

EUR/USD’s rally resumed and surges to as high as 1.1537 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1615 key resistance next. Decisive break there will pave the way to 1.2 handle. On the downside, below 1.1434 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.1312 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.1298 resistance further affirm medium term reversal. That is, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1763). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1118 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1796; (P) 1.1825; (R1) 1.1839; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside as correction from 1.2348 is extending. Further fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694 and possibly mildly below. But we’d expect strong support from 1.1062 to contain downside to complete the correction. Though, break of 1.1988 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1505; (P) 1.1590 (R1) 1.1638; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral as it just recovered ahead of 1.1507 low. More consolidations could be seen but upside of recovery should be limited by 1.1851 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 1.1507 will resume whole fall from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1196; (P) 1.1218; (R1) 1.1240; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 1.1168 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.1422 at 1.1121. Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.0635 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.0936. On the upside, break of 1.1348 will likely resume the rise from 1.0635 through 1.1422 to 1.1496 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2078; (P) 1.2105 (R1) 1.2156; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2054 temporary low. In case of stronger recovery upside should be limited by 1.2214 support turned resistance to bring another decline. Below 1.2054 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1991 first. Break will target 200% projection at 1.1891.

In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. We’ll look at the structure and momentum of such decline before decision if it’s an impulsive or corrective move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0759; (P) 1.0792; (R1) 1.0858; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.0885 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 1.0635 with another rise through 1.0990. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0727 will target a test on 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0864; (P) 1.0894; (R1) 1.0951; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the downside at this point. Pull back from 1.0980 has possibly completed at 1.0834, after drawing support from 55 D EMA. Firm break of 1.0980 resistance will resume the rise from 1.0694. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.0861) will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1371; (P) 1.1433; (R1) 1.1491; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Further rise is still in favor as long as 1.1265 minor support holds. Sustained break of 1.1482 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 to 1.1120 at 1.1589 next. Sustained break there will argue that whole fall from 1.2348 has completed too and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1879. On the down, however, break of 1.1265 support will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 1.1120 low instead.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is seen as a leg inside the range pattern from 1.2555 (2018 high). Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.1613) will argue that it has completed and stronger rise would be seen back towards top of the range between 1.2348 and 1.2555. However, firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0275; (P) 1.0320; (R1) 1.0363; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first, with focus staying on 1.0348 support turned resistance, which is close to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0346). Decisive break there argue that rally from 0.9951 is at least correcting the fall from 1.1494. Further rise should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1494 to 0.9951 at 1.0540. On the downside, break of 1.0201 minor support will suggest that such rebound has completed and bring retest of 0.9951 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.