Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9761; (P) 0.9868; (R1) 0.9924; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 0.9847 argues that corrective pattern from 0.9534 has completed with three waves up to 1.0092. Such development revives near term bearishness too. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.9534/9630 support zone. On the upside, above 0.9975 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, medium term term bearishness is retained with failure to sustain above 55 day EMA (now at 0.9930). That is, larger down trend from 1.2348 (2021 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9534 low will confirm this bearish case. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0092 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0716; (P) 1.0747 (R1) 1.0769; More…..

With 1.0718 minor support intact, intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for 1.0828 resistance. Break there will target 100% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0494 at 1.0983. However, as rise from 1.0339 is seen as a corrective move. We’d expect upside to be limited by 1.0983 to complete the correction. On the downside, break of 1.0718 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0494 support first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to resume later. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115.

EUR/USD dropped to 1.2052 last week, but drew support from 1.2058 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.2348 at 1.2063) and rebounded. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside this week for 1.2222 minor resistance first. Break there will bring retest of 1.2348 high. However, sustained break of 1.2058 will extend the correction from 1.2348 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1887.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1756; (P) 1.1789 (R1) 1.1840; More…

The consolidation pattern from 1.1908 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606 to bring up trend resumption. Break of 1.1846 minor resistance will argue that larger rise from 1.0339 is resuming for 1.2042 long term support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0608; (P) 1.0638 (R1) 1.0668; More…..

EUR/USD recovers mildly after dipping to 1.0670. But intraday bias stays on the downside with 1.0713 minor resistance intact. Corrective rise from 1.0339 should have completed at 1.0838 already. Deeper decline should now be seen to retest 1.0339 low. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of medium term down trend. On the upside, however, above 1.0713 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0146; (P) 1.0201; (R1) 1.0271; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is in favor this week as long as 1.0118 minor support holds. Above 1.0277 minor resistance will target 1.0348 support turned resistance. Sustained break there will bring stronger rebound back to channel resistance (now at 1.0493). On the downside, below 1.0118 will bring retest of 0.9951 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1985; (P) 1.2006; (R1) 1.2026; More….

Focus is now on 1.2075 minor resistance in EUR/USD with today’s recovery. Break there will indicate that pull back from 1.2149 has completed and bring retest of this resistance. Break there will resume rise from 1.1703 to 1.2242/2348 resistance zone. In case of another fall, we’d continue to expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1703 to 1.2149 at 1.1979 to bring rebound. However, firm break of 1.1979 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.1873.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0995; (P) 1.1007; (R1) 1.1020; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with 1.1043 minor resistance intact. Corrective rebound from 1.0879 should have completed at 1.1175 already. Deeper decline would be seen to retest 1.0879 low. Break will resume larger down trend from 1.2555. On the upside, above 1.1043 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1175 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, at this point, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1005; (P) 1.1015; (R1) 1.1032; More…

EUR/USD’s decline resumes after brief consolidation and intraday bias back on the downside for 1.0981 support. Decisive break there should confirm completion of corrective rise from 1.0879 at 1.1239. Further fall should then be seen to retest 1.0879 low. In any case, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.1085 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0849; (P) 1.0901; (R1) 1.0998; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise form 1.0634 should target a retest on 1.1094 high. . Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 0.9534. On the downside, below 1.0863 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

EUR/USD rose to as high as 1.1347 last week as rebound from 1.1107 accelerated. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.1448 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 1.1251 minor support, however, will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.1107 low.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom could be in place at 1.1107, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Decisive break of 1.1448 resistance would confirm this case. And stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. At this point, it’s early to judge whether rise from 1.1107 is a corrective move or the start of an medium term up trend. We’d look at the structure of the rebound to decide later. But in any case, for now, risk will remain on the upside as long as 1.1107 low holds.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance, 55 month and 55 week EMA. Break of 1.0339 will resume the down trend to 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2555 at 0.9501

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1838; (P) 1.1859; (R1) 1.1882; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, beak of 1.1894 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming at 1.1780. Corrective pattern from 1.2348 might have completed too. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1974 resistance for confirmation. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.1780 will extend the correction to retest 1.1703 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0528; (P) 1.0572 (R1) 1.0619; More…..

EUR/USD extends the post-ECB rally today and breaches 1.0630 resistance again. The development suggests that pull back from 1.0828 has completed at 1.0493 already. More importantly, corrective rise from 1.0339 is possibly still in progress for another rising leg. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 1.0678 resistance first. Break will send EUR/USD through 1.0828 resistance.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1668; (P) 1.1725; (R1) 1.1807; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current rise should target 00% projection of 1.0774 to 1.1422 from 1.1168 at 1.1816 first. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.2216 next. On the downside, below 1.1640 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But downside of retreat should be contained by 1.1422 resistance turned support and bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.1496 resistance now suggests that whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 should be the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1168 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1517; (P) 1.1567; (R1) 1.1605; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1523 suggests resumption of fall from 1.2265, and that from 1.2348 too. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.1908 to 1.1523 from 1.1691 at 1.1453. Break will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.1306. On the upside, though, above 1.1615 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2348 should at least be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low). As long as 1.1908 resistance holds, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Nevertheless break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

EUR/USD rebounded strongly to 1.0929 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.0929 will target 1.1032 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534 to 1.1273 fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.0738) will likely extend the corrective pattern from 1.1032 and bring deeper decline back towards 1.0515.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress with 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0460 intact. The strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.0623) was also a medium term bullish sign. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidity the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

In the long term picture, while it’s too early to call for long term trend reversal at this point, the strong break of 1.0635 support turned resistance (2020 low) should at least turn outlook neutral. Focus will turn to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1166). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1194; (P) 1.1207; (R1) 1.1220; More…

A temporary low is in place at 1.1193 and intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first. As long as 1.1268 minor resistance holds, further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.1181 support will confirm completion of rebound from 1.1107 at 1.1412. Further fall should then be see to retest 1.1107 low. On the upside, above 1.1268 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 1.1412 instead.

In the bigger picture, bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD suggests that 1.1107 is a medium term bottom. However, rejection by 55 EMA retains medium term bearish. Outlook will be neutral for now. On the downside, break of 1.1107 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Meanwhile, break of 1.1412 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1703; (P) 1.1763 (R1) 1.1813; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside as pull back from 1.1908 short term top is in progress. At this point, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606 to bring rebound. But break of 1.1908 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more consolidation would be seen in near term. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.1606 would bring deeper pull back to 61.8% retracement at 1.1420.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1772; (P) 1.1813; (R1) 1.1887; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further fall is still in favor as long as 1.1917 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.1737 support will reaffirm that case that it’s now in correction to rise from 1.6035. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2011 at 1.1485. However, break of 1.1917 will revive near term bullishness and target 1.2011 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1003; (P) 1.1040; (R1) 1.1065; More…

EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 1.0926. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook remains bearish as long as 1.1164 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0926 will resume lager down trend from 1.2555 for 1.0813 fibonacci level next. However, decisive break of 1.1164 will be an early indication of larger reversal and target 1.1249 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.