EUR/USD dropped notably to 0.9729 last week but then recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.9729 will reaffirm the case the corrective rise from 0.9534 has completed at 1.0092. Deeper fall would then be seen to retest 0.9534 resistance next. However, break of 1.0092 will resume the rebound towards 1.0368 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook stays bearish with trading inside the falling channel. That is larger down trend from 1.2348 (2021 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9534 low will confirm this bearish case. However, break of 1.0092 will add to the case of medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, and bring further rally towards 55 week EMA (now at 1.0583).

In the long term picture, long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is extending. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0635 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0634; (P) 1.0671 (R1) 1.0693; More…..

EUR/USD’s breach of 1.0619 minor support finally suggests that the corrective rise from 1.0339 is completed at 1.0828. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.0339 low first. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of medium term down trend. On the upside, however, above 1.0713 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1075; (P) 1.1091; (R1) 1.1116; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook. With 1.1130 minor resistance intact, further fall is expected for 1.1026 low. Decisive break there will extend the downtrend from 1.2555. On the upside, above 1.1130 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside to extend the correction from 1.1026. But in that case, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1249 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1263; (P) 1.1289; (R1) 1.1320; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1185 is extending. With 1.1373 resistance intact, further decline is still in favor. On the downside, break of 1.1185 will resume the larger down trend to 161.8% projection of 1.1908 to 1.1523 from 1.1691 at 1.1068 next. However, firm break of 1.1373 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2171; (P) 1.2203; (R1) 1.2254; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for retesting 1.2348 high. Decisive break there should confirm resumption of up trend from 1.0635. Next target is 1.2555 key long term resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.2050 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0537; (P) 1.0592; (R1) 1.0702; More…

Immediate focus is now on 1.0733 resistance in EUR/USD. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 0.9534. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9630 to 1.0733 from 1.0482 at 1.1164. For now, outlook will continue stay bullish as long as 1.0482 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Rejection by 1.0609 will suggest that price actions from 0.9534 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0609 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1395; (P) 1.1421; (R1) 1.1451; More…..

With 1.1390 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor in EUR/USD. Current development suggests that corrective pattern from 1.1215 is still extending, with rise from 1.1289 as another leg. Further rally would be seen to 1.1569 resistance and above. On the downside, below 113.90 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1289 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0883; (P) 1.0928; (R1) 1.0957; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Strong support from 55 D EMA (now at 1.0850) retains near term bullishness. Break of 1.1011 will resume the rally from 1.0634 and target 1.1094 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2069; (P) 1.2131; (R1) 1.2169; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.2265 is in progress for 1.1985 support first. Break there will confirm that consolidation pattern from 1.2348 has started the third leg. Deeper fall would then be seen back to 1.1703 support. On the upside, above 1.2217 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2265 and above.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1077; (P) 1.1088; (R1) 1.1105; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.1066 support will resume the decline from 1.1239 to 1.0981 support. Decisive break there will confirm that whole corrective rise from 1.0879 has completed. On the upside, above 1.1172 will turn bias to the upside for 1.1239 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1339; (P) 1.1356; (R1) 1.1377; More…..

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook. With 1.1391 minor resistance intact, further decline is expected to 1.1307 support. The corrective rise from 1.1215 should have completed at 1.1569. Break of 1.1307 should resume larger down trend through 1.1215 low. On the upside, above 1.1391 minor resistance will dampen this bearish case and turn intraday bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0595; (P) 1.0647 (R1) 1.0723; More…..

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.0494 extends to as high as 1.0713 today so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.0828 resistance and above. Note again that rise from 1.0339 low is seen as a corrective move. Hence, we’d expect upside to be limited by 100% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0494 at 1.0983. The larger down trend is still expected to resume later. On the downside, break of prior resistance at 1.0630 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0494 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1007; (P) 1.1022; (R1) 1.1035; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside as fall from 1.1239 is in progress for 1.0981 support. Break there should confirm completion of corrective rise from 1.0879 at 1.1239. Further fall should then be seen to retest 1.0879 low. On the upside, above 1.1061 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1172 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1823; (P) 1.1847; (R1) 1.1866; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 1.1737 will reaffirm the bearish case that’s fall from 1.2011 is correcting whole rise from 1.0635. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2011 at 1.1485. On the upside, though, break of 1.1917 will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.2011 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1776; (P) 1.1808; (R1) 1.1857; More…..

Intraday bas in EUR/USD stays on the upside at this point. rebound form 1.1612 is still in progress for retesting 1.2011 high. Strong break there would resume larger rally from 1.0635. On the downside, break of 1.1759 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1162; (P) 1.1199 (R1) 1.1231; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.1298 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0922). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1540; (P) 1.1564; (R1) 1.1578; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Further fall is still in favor as long as 1.1639 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.1528 will resume larger decline towards 1.1289 medium term fibonacci level. On the upside, break of 1.1639 resistance, however, will indicate short term bottoming. intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that rise from 1.0635 (2020 low) has completed at 1.2348. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Note also that rejection by 55 week EMA (1.1830) also carries medium term bearish implication. Firm break of 1.1289 will pave the way to retest 1.0635 low. On the upside, though, break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0646; (P) 1.0677 (R1) 1.0731; More…..

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0339 resumed today and reaches as high as 1.0749 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for further rise. At this point, rise from 1.0339 is seen as a corrective move and should be limited by 1.0872 resistance. On the downside, below 1.0588 minor support will argue that it’s completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0339 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1936; (P) 1.1997 (R1) 1.2082; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Medium term rise from 1.0339 has just resumed and further rise should be seen to next key fibonacci level at 1.2516. On the downside, break of 1.1822 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1774) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0870; (P) 1.0908; (R1) 1.0960; More…

Focus stays on 1.0929 in EUR/USD as the pair is still struggling around this resistance. Sustained break of 1.0929 argue that the corrective fall from 1.1274 has completed with three waves down to 1.0764. Further rally would then be seen to 1.1064 resistance for confirmation. Meanwhile, rejection by 1.0929 will retain near term bearishness. Break of 1.0854 minor support will resume the decline through 1.0764, to 1.0609/34 cluster support next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. Yet, medium term outlook will be neutral for now, as long as 1.1274 resistance holds.