Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1406; (P) 1.1442 (R1) 1.1503; More…..

EUR/USD drops sharply after hitting 1.1489 earlier today and intraday bias is turned neutral. On the downside, break of 1.1382 will suggest short term topping, possibly on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, lengthier consolidation would be seen before another rally. EUR/USD would dip back to 1.1312 support and below. On the upside, above 1.1489 will extend recent rise from 1.0339 low to 1.1615 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.1298 resistance further affirm medium term reversal. That is an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1763). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1118 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2091; (P) 1.2127; (R1) 1.2149; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. In case of another retreat, downside should be be contained by 1.2003 support to bring another rise. On the upside, break of 1.2177 resume whole rise from 1.0635, and target 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1602 at 1.2452 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds.

EUR/USD’s decline extended to as low as 1.1966 last week. While downside momentum has been diminishing, there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 200% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1891. Break will target 261.8% projection at 1.1730. On the upside, though, break of 1.2008 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2077) or above.

In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. With current downside acceleration, there is prospect of hitting 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 before completing the decline. But still, we’ll need to look at the structure to before deciding if it’s a corrective or impulsive move.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1312; (P) 1.1334 (R1) 1.1367; More…..

EUR/USD recovers notably after hitting 1.1300. But still as long as 1.1430 minor resistance holds, further decline is expected, to 61.8% projection of 1.2413 to 1.1509 from 1.1745 at 1.1186. Note that it’s a cluster level with 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Hence, we’ll tentatively look for short term bottoming around 1.1186. Meanwhile, considering mildly bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1430 will indicate short term bottoming. In that case, lengthier consolidation would be seen first before down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1851 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0668; (P) 1.0696; (R1) 1.0727; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0646) holds. Decisive break of 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763) will extend the rise from 1.0447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.0958 next. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA will argue that the rebound has completed, and target 1.0515 support, and then 1.0447 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0873; (P) 1.0899; (R1) 1.0940; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the upside as rally is trying to resume. Current rise from 0.9534 should target 61.8% projection of 0.9630 to 1.0733 from 1.0482 at 1.1164 next. On the downside, though, break of 1.0765 support should now indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.0582).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the rally from 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium term up trend rather than a correction. Further rise is in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.0482 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1721; (P) 1.1762; (R1) 1.1792; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. We we maintain our view that 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 should limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1649 minor support will be the first signal that corrective rise from 1.1300 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.1525 support first. Break will confirm and bring retest of 1.1300 low. However, sustained break of 1.1779 will extend the corrective rise from 1.1300 to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958 before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0929; (P) 1.0958; (R1) 1.0980; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook as it’s staying in very tight range. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further fall is in favor as long as 1.0997 minor resistance intact. Break of 1.0876 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to 1.0722 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.0997 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.1138 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0720; (P) 1.0754; (R1) 1.0804; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Corrective fall from 1.1032 should have completed at 1.0515 already. That came after defending both 1.0482 support and 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0258. Further rise should be seen for retesting 1.1032 high next. On the downside, below 1.0703 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0482 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) should continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. However, sustained break of 1.0482 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0106, with risk of breaking through 0.9534 eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0937; (P) 1.0978; (R1) 1.1020; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Another rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.0833 minor support holds. Corrective pattern from 1.0635 is in its third leg. Above 1.1019 will target 1.1147 resistance. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0833 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0727 support and then 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9989; (P) 1.0039; (R1) 1.0134; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 0.9534 is in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.1494 to 0.9534 at 1.0283. On the downside, below 0.9942 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term bottoming at 0.9534 building up, with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. While it is too early to call for trend reversal, firm break of 0.9998 opens up stronger rebound back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.0630) even as a corrective rise. This will now be the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 0.9937) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1354; (P) 1.1406; (R1) 1.1439; More….

EUR/USD is staying in tight range below 1.1455 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.1455 will reaffirm that consolidation pattern from 1.1300 has started the third, rising leg. Further rise should be seen to 1.1621 resistance and above. But upside should be limited by 1.1814 to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 1.300 will resume whole down trend from 1.2555 and target 1.1186 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1300 is seen as a corrective pattern. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. In case the consolidation from 1.1300 extends, upside should be limited by 1.1814 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. to bring down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1111; (P) 1.1126; (R1) 1.1145; More…

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.1179 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another retreat could be seen. But downside should be contained by 1.1602 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 1.1179 will resume the rally from 1.0879 to 1.1412 key resistance next. However, break of 1.1062 will turn focus back to 1.0879 low instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. Hence, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0935; (P) 1.0961; (R1) 1.1007; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.1008. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0722 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.1016 will resume the whole rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1084; (P) 1.1160; (R1) 1.1247; More…

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1496 resumes by breaking 1.1055 temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.0777 low. On the upside, break of 1.1236 minor resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall. Otherwise, further decline is expected eve in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0777 low faced heavy rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0777 at 1.1456, as well as 55 month EMA. The development argues that price actions from 1.0777 medium term pattern are just corrective the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high). Further decline is in favor to retest 1.0339 (2017 low). Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.1456 will raise the chance of medium term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1876.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1873; (P) 1.1912; (R1) 1.1943; More….

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.1989 will target 55 day EMA (now at 1.2044) . Firm break there will indicate completion of correction from 1.2348 and bring retest of this high. On the downside, however, break of 1.1834 will extend the correction from 1.2348 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

EUR/USD stayed in consolidation from 1.1185 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Downside breakout is mildly in favor with 1.1382 minor resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.1185 will resume larger fall from 1.2348. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1663 from 1.1908 at 1.0934. On the upside, however, firm break of 1.1382 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 1.1186. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1462).

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD has possibly failed 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) again. Long term outlook will remain neutral as sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low) is extending with another medium term fall. For now, we’d hold back from assessing the chance of downside breakout, and monitor the momentum of the decline from 1.2348 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0663; (P) 1.0678; (R1) 1.0700; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763) will extend the rise from 1.0447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.0958 next. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0664) will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0447/0515 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. However, Break of 1.0447 will resume the fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9543 to 1.1274 at 1.0199.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0834; (P) 1.0864 (R1) 1.0889; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the downside for the moment. The decline from 1.1020 short term top would extend to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0760) first. As noted before, rise from 1.0339 is seen as a corrective move. Break of 55 day EMA will affirm the case that such correction is completed and bring deeper decline to 1.0569 for confirmation. However, above 1.1020 will extend such corrective rise instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate long term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1035; (P) 1.1064; (R1) 1.1085; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1051 minor support suggests resumption of fall from 1.1249. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1026 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555, for 1.0813 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.1093 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside and extend the consolidation from 1.1026. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1249 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.