Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1110; (P) 1.1134; (R1) 1.1149; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation fro 1.1179 is extending. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.1602 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 1.1179 will resume the rally from 1.0879 to 1.1412 key resistance next. However, break of 1.1062 will turn focus back to 1.0879 low instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. Hence, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.1951 last week and breached medium term channel. However, as it quickly formed a temporary low there and recovered, initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.2052 support turned resistance will suggest that the correction from 1.2348 has completed, and larger up trend isn’t finished. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.2188 resistance and then 1.2348 high. However, break of 1.1951 will bring deeper correction to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1356; (P) 1.1375; (R1) 1.1400; More…..

EUR/USD’s recovery today suggests temporary bottoming at 1.1336. As such recovery is weak so far, we’d treat is as a correction. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, we’re still slightly favoring that corrective rise from 1.1215 should have completed at 1.1569. On the downside, break of 1.1336 will resume the fall from 1.1569 to retest 1.1215 low. However, break of 1.1450 resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 1.1215 is extending with another rise. And, intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 1.1569 and above.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

EUR/USD edged lower to 1.1193 last week but bottomed ahead of 1.1181 support and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.1285 will extend the rise from 1.1193 to 1.1412 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.1193 will resume the fall from 1.1412 to retest 1.1107 low.

In the bigger picture, bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD suggests that 1.1107 is a medium term bottom. However, rejection by 55 EMA retains medium term bearish. Outlook will be neutral for now. On the downside, break of 1.1107 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Meanwhile, break of 1.1412 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1674) holds).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0881; (P) 1.0939; (R1) 1.1002; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside break of 1.0876 will resume the fall from 1.1138 short term top to 1.0722 support next. However, break of 1.0997 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.1138 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2257; (P) 1.2351 (R1) 1.2406; More….

EUR/USD dips in early US session but is still staying above 1.2268 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.2268 will argue that fall from 1.2555 is likely resuming. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2154 support and below. Om the upside, above 1.24455 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2555 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1239 extends to as low as 1.1020 last week. The development affirmed our view that corrective rise from 1.1179 has completed with three waves to 1.1239. Initial bias stays on the downside for 1.0981 support first. Break will confirm and target a retest on 1.0879 low. On the upside, above 1.1070 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1172 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1538) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1281; (P) 1.1306; (R1) 1.1349; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first as it recovered after hitting 1.1262. Focus remains on 1.1289 long term fibonacci level. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication, and extend the fall from 1.2348 to 161.8% projection of 1.1908 to 1.1523 from 1.1691 at 1.1068. On the upside, above 1.1384 indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

EUR/USD rebounded strongly to 1.0929 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.0929 will target 1.1032 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534 to 1.1273 fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.0738) will likely extend the corrective pattern from 1.1032 and bring deeper decline back towards 1.0515.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress with 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0460 intact. The strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.0623) was also a medium term bullish sign. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidity the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

In the long term picture, while it’s too early to call for long term trend reversal at this point, the strong break of 1.0635 support turned resistance (2020 low) should at least turn outlook neutral. Focus will turn to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1166). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0849; (P) 1.0901; (R1) 1.0998; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.0634 is in progress to retest 1.1094 high. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 0.9534. On the downside, below 1.0863 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1813; (P) 1.1857; (R1) 1.1880; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation continues. On the upside, above 1.1907 will resume the rebound to 1.1974 resistance first. Firm break there should argue that whole corrective pattern from 1.2348 has completed. On the downside, however, break of 1.1751 will resume the fall from 1.2265 to 1.1703 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1953; (P) 1.2006 (R1) 1.2084; More….

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1915 extends higher but it’s still limited below 1.2091 key resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Again, decisive break of 1.2091 key resistance is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more corrective trading should be seen with risk of another fall. Below 1.1915 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.1553 to 1.2088 at 1.1884. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1757 and below. Nonetheless, firm break of 1.2091 will resume whole medium term rise from 1.0339 towards 1.2516 long term fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. That is also close to 61.8% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.2494.

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.2011 last week but retreated quickly. It’s staying above 1.1762 support for now. Hence, initial bias remains neutral this week first, with further rise in favor. On the upside, break of 1.2011 will target resume the whole rise from 1.0635. On the downside, firm break of 1.1762 will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back, to 55 day EMA (now at 1.1639) and below.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1700). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1017; (P) 1.1046; (R1) 1.1068; More…

EUR/USD weakens in early US session but stays consolidation from 1.0926 after all. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Outlook remains bearish as long as 1.1164 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 1.0926 will resume lager down trend from 1.2555 for 1.0813 fibonacci level next. However, decisive break of 1.1164 will be an early indication of larger reversal and target 1.1249 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9816; (P) 0.9906; (R1) 0.9976; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.9734 minor support will suggest rejection by 55 day EMA, and medium term falling channel. Bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.9534 low and then resume down trend. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.0019) will raise the chance of medium term bottoming at 0.9534. Further rally should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1494 to 0.9534 at 1.0283.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 1.0197 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1760; (P) 1.1791 (R1) 1.1817; More…

EUR/USD’s pull back from 1.1860 extends lower today but stays above 1.1677 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first and another rise is expected. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.2091 has completed at 1.1553 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. Above 1.1860 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2091 high. However, break of 1.1677 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 1.1553 low instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be cautious on 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1373) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1565; (P) 1.1608; (R1) 1.1648; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with 1.1650 minor resistance intact. Decisive break of 1.1525 support will confirm that corrective rise from 1.1300 has completed at 1.1814. In such case, deeper fall should be seen back to retest 1.1300. On the upside, above 1.1650 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 1.1814 to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1682; (P) 1.1711 (R1) 1.1758; More…..

EUR/USD is still struggling in range above 1.1507 as consolidation is probably extending. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside , firm break of 1.1507 will resume larger down trend through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1702; (P) 1.1738 (R1) 1.1780; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook. With 1.1832 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is expected. Fall from 1.2091 would extend through 1.1661 support. Decline from 1.2091 is correcting whole rise from 1.0569. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510, where we’re expecting support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1832 minor resistance will suggest that the corrective fall is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It’s expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0445; (P) 1.0469; (R1) 1.0491; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.1274 is in progress and should target 1.0199 fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 1.0616 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top could still be a correction to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). But chance of a complete trend reversal is rising. In either case, current fall should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0759) holds, in case of rebound.