Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1043; (P) 1.1069; (R1) 1.1121; More…

With 1.1056 minor support intact, further rise is in favor in EUR/USD. Pull back from 1.1239 could have completed with three waves down to 1.0992. Corrective rise from 1.0879 is probably not over. Further rise should be seen to 1.1172 resistance and then 1.1239. On the downside, below 1.1056 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0992 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0810; (P) 1.0843; (R1) 1.0905; More…

EUR/USD falls sharply in early US session but stays above 1.0779 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, below 1.0779 will resume the fall from 1.1138. But considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, strong support could be seen from 1.0722 to bring rebound. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.0722 will argue that whole rise from 1.0447 has completed, and target this low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0685; (P) 1.0709 (R1) 1.0755; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the upside, as rebound from 1.0348 is in progress. Firm break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.0758) will target 1.0935 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.641 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0348 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case and bring medium term corrective rebound first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2345; (P) 1.2371 (R1) 1.2401; More….

EUR/USD is staying in tight range below 1.2413 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 1.2413 will extend the rebound from 1.2214 to 1.2475 resistance. Break will target 1.2516/2555 key resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 1.2214 will revive the case of trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2207; (P) 1.2250 (R1) 1.2290; More….

Focus remains on 1.2222 support in EUR/USD. Sustained break of 1.2222 should confirm rejection from 1.2494/2516 key fibonacci level, as well as near term reversal, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. That could also signal completion of medium term up trend from 1.0339. In that case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 1.2091 resistance turned support first. On the upside, though, above 1.2403 minor resistance will revive bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2537.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. But key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 is looking vulnerable. Sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862. Nonetheless, rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9961; (P) 0.9999; (R1) 1.0053; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook stays bearish. On the downside, firm break of 0.9863 support will resume larger down trend. On the upside, break of 1.0197 resistance will now raise the chance of larger trend reversal, and target 1.0368 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0519; (P) 1.0567 (R1) 1.0654; More…..

EUR/USD recovers further but stays below 1.0652 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, break of 1.0461 key support indicates that consolidation from there has completed as a triangle at 1.1298. And, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is resuming. Current downtrend is now expected to target 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1586; (P) 1.1631 (R1) 1.1688; More…..

EUR/USD lost downside momentum again as seen in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned neutral gain. Overall outlook remain bearish and downside breakout is expected, sooner or later. Firm break of 1.1507 will resume whole decline from 1.2555, through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. On the upside, in case of another rise as consolidation extends, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1721 last week but failed to take out 1.1733 resistance and retreated sharply. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Rebound from 1.1300 could extend higher. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 to limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1525 support will indicate completion of this corrective rebound. Retest of 1.1300 low should then be seen. However, firm break of 1.1779 will extend the rise to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA adds bearishness to the case. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0000; (P) 1.0037; (R1) 1.0074; More…

EUR/USD’s fall continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.1184 to 1.0348 from 1.0773 at 0.9937 could prompt downside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 0.9420. On the upside, break of 1.0121 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0348 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0581; (P) 1.0613; (R1) 1.0636; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues below 1.0733. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0481 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 0.9729 to 1.0481 from 1.0289 at 1.0754 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.1041. However, firm break of 1.0481 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall to 1.0289 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Rejection by 1.0609 will suggest that price actions from 0.9534 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0609 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2018; (P) 1.2053 (R1) 1.2102; More….

EUR/USD is staying below 1.2091 key resistance despite the rally attempt. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is expected as long as 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1959) holds. Firm break of 1.2091 will confirm medium term rally resumption and target next key fibonacci level at 1.2494/2516. However, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2091 with with another decline through 1.1717 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. That is also close to 61.8% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.2494.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1777; (P) 1.1820; (R1) 1.1859; More…..

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook stays bullish with 1.1695 support intact. Break of 1.1916 will resume whole rise form 1.0635. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.1695 should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside towards 55 day EMA (now at 1.1479).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1699; (P) 1.1753 (R1) 1.1786; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. With 1.1677 minor support intact, further rally is expected. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.2091 has completed at 1.1553 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. Above 1.1860 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2091 high. However, break of 1.1677 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 1.1553 low instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be cautious on 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1373) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1241; (P) 1.1264; (R1) 1.1298; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.1286 will extend the rise from 1.1183 for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1308) first. Sustained break will target 1.1448 resistance next. For now, we’d expect strong resistance between 1.1448/1569 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.1210 minor support will turn bias to the downside. Decisive break of 1.1176 will resume the down trend from 1.2555.

In the bigger picture, medium term weakness was revived as the weak rebound from 1.1176 was rejected well below 55 week EMA and failed to sustain above 55 day EMA. Focus is back on 1.1176 low, with 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.2555. Such decline target 1.0339 low next. On the upside, firm break of 1.1569 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, downside breakout will be in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2239; (P) 1.2296 (R1) 1.2342; More….

Focus remains on 1.2214 support in EUR/USD. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 1.2154 first. Firm break there will confirm and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 next. On the upside, break of 1.2413 will turn focus back to 1.2555 high instead.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1189; (P) 1.1206 (R1) 1.1228; More….

EUR/USD rebounds strongly in early US session but it’s staying below 1.1284/1298 resistance zone. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point first. Main focus remain on 1.1298 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0922). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0935; (P) 1.0968; (R1) 1.1024; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1032 resistance indicate resumption of whole up trend from 0.9534. Intraday bias is stay on the upside for 1.1273 fibonacci level. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1032 from 1.0515 at 1.1441. On the downside,e below 1.0972 support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.0830 support holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0515 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1349; (P) 1.1398; (R1) 1.1462; More…..

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1176 accelerated to as high as 1.1448. The break of 1.1419 resistance is taken as the first sign of medium term bottom. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 1.1514/1569 resistance zone first. On the downside, break of 1.1335 minor support is needed to indication completion of the rise from 1.1176. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that a medium term bottom could be formed at 1.1176 already. That came after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rally could be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1176 at 1.1703. It’s a bit early to confirm medium term bullish reversal. The structure of the rise from 1.1176 and reaction to 1.1703 fibonacci level will be watched for making an assessment later. But in any case, decisive break of 1.1176 is needed to confirm resumption of down trend. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1799; (P) 1.1816; (R1) 1.1832; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.1908 would target a test on 1.1663 low first. Break there will resume the fall from 1.2265, as well as the pattern from 1.2348. Next target is 1.1602 key support level. On the upside, above 1.1845 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1908 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.