Wed, Oct 16, 2019 @ 05:22 GMT

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s sharp fall last week suggests that corrective rise from 1.1509 has completed at 1.1851 already. Initial bias stays on the downside for 1.1509 first. Break will resume the whole fall from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. On the upside, above 1.1659 minor resistance delay the bearish case and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Sustained break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s dropped sharply to 1.2054 last week. The strong break of 1.2154 key support confirmed medium term topping at 1.2555. But as a temporary low as formed at 1.2054, initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2214 support turned resistance to bring another decline. Below 1.2054 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1991 first. Break will target 200% projection at 1.1891.

In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. We’ll look at the structure and momentum of such decline before decision if it’s an impulsive or corrective move.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action from 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive pattern. Reaction to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 will give important clue to the underlying momentum.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

Despite edging higher to 1.1496, EUR/USD failed to break through 1.1499 resistance again and dipped back into established range. Initial price remains neutral first. The corrective structure from 1.1215 so far suggests that larger decline is not completed yet. And downside breakout is in favor. On the downside, break of 1.1270 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1215 low. Break will resume down trend from 1.2555 to 1.1186 key fibonacci level. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.1499 will suggest near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 1.1621 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1814 resistance holds.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2268; (P) 1.2309 (R1) 1.2378; More….

EUR/USD’s strong rebound and breach of 1.2358 minor resistance affirm our bullish view. That is, price actions from 1.2445 is a corrective pattern in form of falling wedge. And, it might be completed at 1.2238 already. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 1.2445 first. Break will resume whole rebound from 1.2154 and target 1.2555 high, which is close to 1.2516 key long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.1238 will turn bias back to the downside, to resume the fall from 1.2555 through 1.2154.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2202; (P) 1.2278 (R1) 1.2317; More….

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook that price action from 1.2445 are forming a corrective pattern, possibly a falling wedge. For the momentum, further rise remains mildly in favor. Break of 1.2358 resistance will revive the bullish case. That is, pull back from 1.2445 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.2445 and then 1.2555 key resistance. However, firm break of 1.1238 will now turn bias back to the downside, to resume the fall from 1.2555 through 1.2154.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2207; (P) 1.2249 (R1) 1.2279; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current recovery. For now, another decline is expected as long as 1.2344 minor resistance holds. Below 1.2214 will target 1.2154 first. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci resistance. In that case, whole decline from 1.2555 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 next. However, break of 1.2344 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2475 and above to extend recent range trading.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s decline and break of 1.1173 support last week suggests that consolidation pattern from 1.1111 has completed at 1.1263, after hitting 55 day EMA. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for retesting 1.1111 first. Break will resume larger down trend for 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Though, on the upside, above 1.1224 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend the consolidation from 1.1111 first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is still in progress. Such decline would target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance, 55 month and 55 week EMA. Break of 1.0339 will resume the down trend to 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2555 at 0.9501

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2275; (P) 1.2316 (R1) 1.2376; More….

EUR/USD’s sharp fall today now put 1.2257 support back into focus. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. For the moment, we’re slightly favoring the case that price actions from 1.2445 are corrective in nature. And 1.2257 support should hold even in case of a brief breach. Another rise is expected and break of 1.2445 will target a test on 1.2555 key resistance. However, sustained break of 1.2257 will dampen this bullish view. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside, to resume the fall from 1.2555 through 1.2154.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2273; (P) 1.2309 (R1) 1.2337; More….

EUR/USD tried to break 1.2285 support but failed again. Intraday bias remains neutral with focus on 1.2285. Break will indicate hat whole rise from 1.2154 has completed with three waves up to 1.2475. And intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.2154 and below, to extend the decline from 1.2555. That will also be another sign of rejection from 1.2516 key fibonacci level. On the upside, above 1.2344 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2475 and possibly further to 1.2555 high.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term. 

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1652; (P) 1.1685 (R1) 1.1715; More…..

EUR/USD hardly moves today and is engaging in consolidative trading in range above 1.1507/9. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out as the consolidation extends. But in that case, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside , firm break of 1.1507 will resume larger down trend through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD stayed in range of 1.1267/1472 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week with focus on 1.1267 support. Break there will suggest that larger decline is resuming and target 1.1251 low next. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case. EUR/USD should drop through 1.1186 fibonacci level to 61.8% projection of 1.2555 to 1.1300 from 1.1814 at 1.1038 next. And in any case, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1472 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1814 resistance holds.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1954; (P) 1.1981 (R1) 1.2015; More….

While EUR/USD continues to lose downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, there is no sign of a rebound yet. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Current fall should target 200% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1891. Break will target 261.8% projection at 1.1730. On the upside, though, break of 1.2031 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2090) or above.

In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. With current downside acceleration, there is prospect of hitting 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 before completing the decline. But still, we’ll need to look at the structure to before deciding if it’s a corrective or impulsive move.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD dropped to 1.1822 last week but formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for further rise. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2413 to 1.1822 at 1.2048 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.1822 will resume the whole decline from 1.2555 and target 1.1708 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2179) holds.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD rebounded after hitting 1.1267 but lost momentum well ahead of 1.1472 resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. As long as 1.1472 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected in the pair. On the downside, break of 1.1267 will target 1.1215 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 for 1.1186 fibonacci level next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 1.1472 will be suggest medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1814 resistance holds.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2381; (P) 1.2413 (R1) 1.2441; More….

A temporary top is in place at 1.2443 in EUR/USD with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. For the moment, further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.2268 minor support holds. Firm break of of 1.2555 and 1.2516 long term fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, below 1.2268 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2154 instead.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2356; (P) 1.2416 (R1) 1.2461; More….

EUR/USD’s retreat from 1.2475 extends lower today but it’s staying above 1.2285 minor support. Intraday bias neutral and another rise remains mildly in favor. On the upside, above 1.2475 will target a test on 1.2555 high, which is close to 1.2516 key long term fibonacci level. We’d be cautious on reversal from there. But decisive break will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, below 1.2285 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2154 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2261; (P) 1.2324 (R1) 1.2364; More….

Outlook in EUR/USD remains unchanged. Price actions from 1.2445 is a corrective pattern in form of falling wedge. And, it might be completed at 1.2238 already. Further rise should be seen to 1.2445 first. Break will resume whole rebound from 1.2154 and target 1.2555 high, which is close to 1.2516 key long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.2238 will turn bias back to the downside, to resume the fall from 1.2555 through 1.2154.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1035; (P) 1.1064; (R1) 1.1085; More

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1051 minor support suggests resumption of fall from 1.1249. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1026 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555, for 1.0813 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.1093 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside and extend the consolidation from 1.1026. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1249 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2257; (P) 1.2351 (R1) 1.2406; More….

EUR/USD dropped sharply from 1.2445 but it’s staying above 1.2268 minor support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.2268 will argue that fall from 1.2555 is likely resuming. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2154 support and below. ON the upside, above 1.24455 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2555 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1211; (P) 1.1237; (R1) 1.1251; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.1173 minor support. Break will turn bias to the downside for 1.1111 low. Break will extend down trend to 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.0895. On the upside, in case of another rise as consolidation from 1.1111 extends, upside should be limited well below 1.1324 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186 was also taken out. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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