EURUSD Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1546; (P) 1.1575; (R1) 1.1627; More….

EUR/USD's extended rally and break of 1.1666 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1665) now suggests that whole decline from 1.2081 high has completed at 1.1408. The is also supported by the strong break of 55 D EMA. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824. Firm break there will pave the way to retest 1.2081 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.1503 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1505). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1508; (P) 1.1540; (R1) 1.1575; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations from 1.1408 is still extending. With 1.1666 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1665) intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. However, decisive break of 1.1666 will argue that the fall from 1.2081 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.5011) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. The whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) might have completed as a three wave corrective rise too. Deeper fall is expected to long term channel support (now at 1.0535). Meanwhile, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1508; (P) 1.1540; (R1) 1.1575; More….

EUR/USD dips mildly today, but stays well inside established range above 1.1408. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. With 1.1666 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1665) intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. However, decisive break of 1.1666 will argue that the fall from 1.2081 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.5011) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. The whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) might have completed as a three wave corrective rise too. Deeper fall is expected to long term channel support (now at 1.0535). Meanwhile, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of strong rebound.