Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0502; (P) 1.0542 (R1) 1.0576; More…

EUR/USD is still bounded in range of 1.0358/0786 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further fall is in favor with 1.0786 resistance intact. On the downside, sustained break of 1.0339/48 will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term projection level at 1.0090.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case, and bring stronger rebound first.

EUR/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.1111 last week before forming a temporary bottom and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Recovery should be limited well below 1.1324 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1111 will extend down trend to 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.0895.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186 was also taken out. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance, 55 month and 55 week EMA. Break of 1.0339 will resume the down trend to 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2555 at 0.9501

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1125; (P) 1.1144; (R1) 1.1169; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral and further rise is mildly in favor with 1.1066 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.1239 will resume such rally from 1.0879 and target 100% projection of 1.0879 to 1.1179 from 1.0981 at 1.1281 next. However, firm break of 1.1066 will argue that whole rise from 1.0879 has completed. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.0981 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0843; (P) 1.0888; (R1) 1.0929; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral first, as it quickly retreated after brief breach of 1.0915 minor resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0821 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to 1.0722 support. On the upside, above 1.0931 will resume the rebound towards 1.1138 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

EUR/USD stayed in consolidation below 1.1295 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 1.1109 support intact, there is no indication of reversal yet. Decisive break of 1.1298 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0941). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

In the long term picture, the case for completion of down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high), and long term bottoming at 1.0339, is starting to build up. Decisive break of 1.1298 will bring rise back to 1.2042 as first resistance. And in that case, we should at least see rally back to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1862; (P) 1.1892 (R1) 1.1947; More…

EUR/USD recovers ahead of 1.1822 minor support and intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook remains bullish for another rally. Above 1.1994 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.2091 resistance first. Break will extend larger rise from 1.0339 and target next key fibonacci level at 1.2516. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1822 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.1661 support and below.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall fro 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But after all, break of 1.1661 is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0533; (P) 1.0554; (R1) 1.0587; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.0616 resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.0616 will retain near term bearishness. Break of 1.0447 will resume the fall from 1.1274 to 1.0199 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top could still be a correction to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). But chance of a complete trend reversal is rising. In either case, current fall should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0725) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1178; (P) 1.1202; (R1) 1.1225; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first and consolidation from 1.1111 might extend. In case of another rise, upside should be limited well below 1.1324 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1173 will turn bias to the downside for 1.1111 low. Break will extend down trend to 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186 was also taken out. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1356; (P) 1.1416; (R1) 1.1454; More….

EUR/USD recovers after hitting 1.1378 but quickly lost steam. Intraday bias stays on the downside at this point. Current fall from 1.1814 should extend to retest 1.1300 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.2555. On the upside, above 1.1432 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 1.1621 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1043; (P) 1.1069; (R1) 1.1112; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point and some more consolidations could be seen. But further decline is expected as long as 1.1162 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.1026 will target 161.8% projection of 1.1412 to 1.1193 from 1.1282 at 1.0928 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that down trend from 1.2555 (2018) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0259; (P) 1.0283; (R1) 1.0328; More…

EUR/USD recovered after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA, but stays well below 1.0481. Intraday bias remains neutral an more consolidative trading could be seen. But after all, as long as 1.0092 resistance turned support holds, further rally is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.0481 will resume the rise from 0.9534 and target 1.0609 fibonacci level. However, sustained break of 1.0092 will turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.0052) and below.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was in place at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Even as a corrective rise, rally from 0.9534 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0566) will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0092 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1743; (P) 1.1803 (R1) 1.1835; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Overall, near term outlook remains bullish with 1.1712 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1553 to 1.1960 at 1.1708) intact. Further rally is expected and above 1.1862 will target 1.1900 first. Break will target 1.2029 high next. However, decisive break there will indicate that rebound from 1.1553 has completed at 1.1960. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 1.1553 and possibly below to extend the decline from 1.2091.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1423) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9694; (P) 0.9755; (R1) 0.9874; More…

EUR/USD’s rebound from 0.9534 extends higher but stays below 0.9863 support turned resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and larger down trend is still expected to resume later through 0.9534. However, sustained break of 0.9863 will confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rally back to 1.0197 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 1.0197 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0940; (P) 1.0965; (R1) 1.0996; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1075 is extending. Outlook remains bullish with 1.0830 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.1075 will will resume larger up trend to 1.1273 fibonacci level. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1032 from 1.0515 at 1.1441. However, firm break of 1.0830 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper decline to 1.0711 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0515 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0561; (P) 1.0612; (R1) 1.0639; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0481 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 0.9729 to 1.0481 from 1.0289 at 1.0754 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.1041. However, firm break of 1.0481 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall to 1.0289 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Rejection by 1.0609 will suggest that price actions from 0.9534 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0609 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0712; (P) 1.0736; (R1) 1.0759; More…

For now, intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the upside with 1.0659 minor support intact. Current rally from 0.9534 would target 61.8% projection of 0.9630 to 1.0733 from 1.0482 at 1.1164. On the downside, below 1.0659 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.0482 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Rejection by 1.0609 will suggest that price actions from 0.9534 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0609 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9975; (P) 1.0031; (R1) 1.0070; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.0092 will resume whole rise from 0.9534. Further rally should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1494 to 0.9534 at 1.0283, even as a corrective rise. On the downside, however, break of 0.9907 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9729 support first. Break there should bring retest of 0.9534 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook stays bearish with trading inside the falling channel. That is larger down trend from 1.2348 (2021 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9534 low will confirm this bearish case. However, break of 1.0092 will add to the case of medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, and bring further rally towards 55 week EMA (now at 1.0583).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1486; (P) 1.1518; (R1) 1.1551; More…..

EUR/USD’s breach of 1.1463 suggests resumption of fall from 1.1814. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1300 low next. On the upside, above 1.1549 minor resistance will now indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidation. But for now, we’d hold on to the view that correction from 1.1300 has completed at 1.1814. Thus, we’d expect upside to be limited well below 1.1814 to bring another decline to 1.1300 eventually.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0632; (P) 1.0676 (R1) 1.0755; More…..

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.0339 is still in progress for 1.0872 resistance and possibly above. Nonetheless, such rise is seen as a corrective move. Below 1.0453 will argue that it’s completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0339 support. Break there will extend the larger down trend towards parity.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1886; (P) 1.1938; (R1) 1.1969; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.1989 will resume the rebound form 1.1834 for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2033). Sustained trading above 55 day EMA will indicate completion of correction from 1.2348 and bring retest of this high. On the downside, however, break of 1.1834 will extend the correction from 1.2348 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.