Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0762; (P) 1.0799; (R1) 1.0829; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. On the upside, break of 1.0902 minor resistance will suggest completion of fall from 1.1147. Correction from 1.0635 should have then started the third leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167 again. On the downside, below 1.0768 will target a test on 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1777; (P) 1.1799 (R1) 1.1817; More…

The break of 1.1780 minor support argues that rebound from 1.1669 is completed. Also, correction from 1.2091 is still in progress. Intraday bias is turned back tot he downside for 1.1669 first. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. Strong support is expected there to complete the correction. On the upside, above 1.1879 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2091 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It’s expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1678; (P) 1.1703; (R1) 1.1720; More…

EUR/USD’s breach of 1.1682 suggests resumption of fall from 1.1908. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.1663 low first. Decisive break there will resume the fall from 1.2265, and the pattern from 1.2348, to 1.1602 key support next. On the upside, however, above 1.1749 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1908 again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1953; (P) 1.2018 (R1) 1.2056; More….

EUR/USD’s fall is still in progress and is pressing 161.8% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1991. Intraday bias remains on the downside and firm break of 1.1991 will target 200% projection at 1.1891 next. On the upside, above 1.2054 minor resistance will indicate temporary bottoming and turn bias neutral for consolidations. But upside of recovery should be limited well below 1.2214 support turned resistance to bring another decline.

In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. We’ll look at the structure and momentum of such decline before decision if it’s an impulsive or corrective move.

EUR/USD rebounded strong to 1.1116 last week but quickly reversed from there. Near term outlook is mixed for now and initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.0981 will resume the decline from 1.1179 for retesting 1.0879 low. On the upside, above 1.1116 will bring a test on 1.1179 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1566) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0972; (P) 1.1034; (R1) 1.1100; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen first. But further rally is expected as long as 1.0908 support holds. Break of 1.1094 will resume larger up trend to 1.1273 fibonacci level. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1032 from 1.0515 at 1.1441.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0515 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1167; (P) 1.1186; (R1) 1.1218; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first and consolidation from 1.1239 could extend. Still, with 1.1066 support intact, near term outlook stays bullish and further rally is in favor. On the upside, above 1.1239 will extend whole rally from 1.0879 to 100% projection of 1.0879 to 1.1179 from 1.0981 at 1.1281 next. However, on the downside, break of 1.1066 will suggest that whole rise from 1.0879 has completed. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.0981 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1305; (P) 1.1321; (R1) 1.1342; More……

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1347 is extending with another falling leg. With 1.1251 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, above 1.1347 will target 1.1448 key resistance next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 1.1251 minor support will suggest that recovery from 1.1107 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1107 low.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom could be in place at 1.1107, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Decisive break of 1.1448 resistance would confirm this case. And stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. At this point, it’s early to judge whether rise from 1.1107 is a corrective move or the start of an medium term up trend. We’d look at the structure of the rebound to decide later. But in any case, for now, risk will remain on the upside as long as 1.1107 low holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9852; (P) 0.9919; (R1) 0.9974; More…

Downside momentum in EUR/USD is a bit unconvincing. But further decline is expected with 1.0078 resistance intact. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 1.0773 to 0.9951 from 1.0368 at 0.9860 should prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9546. On the upside, however, firm break of 1.0078 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.0368 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1703; (P) 1.1763 (R1) 1.1813; More…

Break of 1.1747 indicates resumption of pull back from 1.1908 short term top. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606. At this point, we’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. But break of 1.1908 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more consolidation would be seen in near term. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.1606 would bring deeper pull back to 61.8% retracement at 1.1420.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD was bounded in range of 1.1834/1989 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.1989 will extend the rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2037). Sustained break there e will indicate completion of correction from 1.2348 and bring retest of this high. On the downside, however, break of 1.1834 will extend the correction from 1.2348 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1799; (P) 1.1816; (R1) 1.1832; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.1850 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1907/1908 key structural resistance zone. Sustained break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.1751; h: 1.1663; rs: 1.1769). That would also revive the case that consolidation pattern from 1.2348 has completed. Such development will turn near term outlook bullish for retesting 1.2348 high. On the downside, below 1.1769 will resume the fall from 1.1908 to retest 1.1663 low.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2069; (P) 1.2114; (R1) 1.2150; More…

Intraday bias EUR/USD is turned neutral at it retreat sharply after failing 4 hour 55 EMA. Another rise still mildly in favor. Break of 1.2157 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2348 high. However, decisive break of 1.2052 will resume the correction from 1.2348. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.2348 at 1.1887.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2025; (P) 1.2050; (R1) 1.2088; More….

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.2149 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1703 to 1.2149 at 1.1979 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.2075 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2149 resistance. Break there will resume the rise from 1.1703 to 1.2242/2348 resistance zone. However, firm break of 1.1979 will bring deeper fall to 1.1873.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1630; (P) 1.1656 (R1) 1.1683; More…..

EUR/USD rebounds to as high as 1.1719 so far today. With support from 4 hour 55 EMA, further recovery could be seen. But still it’s seen as in a consolidation pattern from 1.1507. Hence upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. The larger decline from 1.2555 is expected to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 1.1507 will target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 and then 61.8% retracement at 1.1186.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1339; (P) 1.1374 (R1) 1.1413; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.1300 temporary low. With 1.1430 minor resistance intact, further decline remains in favor. Break of 1.1300 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2413 to 1.1509 from 1.1745 at 1.1186. Note that it’s a cluster level with 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Hence, we’ll tentatively look for short term bottoming around 1.1186. Meanwhile, considering mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1430 will indicate short term bottoming. In that case, lengthier consolidation would be seen first before down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1851 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0777 accelerated to as high as 1.1053 last week. Such rise is seen as correcting the fall from 1.1239 to 1.0777. Hence, we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.1239 to 1.0777 at 1.1063 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.0931 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0777 low. However, sustained break of 1.1063 will raise the chance of larger reversal and target 1.1239 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed and prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Sustained break of 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813 will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1239 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1512) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2007; (P) 1.2058; (R1) 1.2093; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. It’s now in the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.2348. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.1951, and then 100% projection of 1.2348 to 1.1951 from 1.2168 at 1.1771. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2168 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

EUR/USD rebounded further to 1.0693 last week but was rejected by 55 D EMA and retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.0522 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0447 low. Break there will resume larger fall from 1.1274. On the other hand, strong bounce from current level, followed by break above 1.0693, rebound from 1.0447 to 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763).

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top could still be a correction to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). But chance of a complete trend reversal is rising. In either case, current fall should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0668) holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might still be in progress. Rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 1.1087) will retain long term bearishness, for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage.

EUR/USD stayed in consolidation from 1.0635 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.1008 will bring another rise. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0774 will target a test on 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. On break of 1.0339, next target will be 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2555 at 0.8901.