Sat, Jul 11, 2020 @ 12:23 GMT

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s pull back from 1.1908 extended to 1.1688 last week but recovered since then. With 1.1908 resistance intact, initial bias remains neutral this week for some more consolidations first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1908 will extend recent up trend to 1.2042 long term support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is now seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action form 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive move. But in either case, further rally would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Weekly Chart

EUR/USD Monthly Chart

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD recovered to 1.1172 last week but reversed and dropped sharply from there. The development suggests that a head and shoulder top could be formed (ls: 1.1199, h: 1.1239, rs: 1.1172. Focus is now on 1.1085 support this week. Break there will argue that whole corrective rise from 1.0879 has completed. In this case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0981 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.1172 will turn bias to the upside for 1.1239 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1538) holds.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1626; (P) 1.1654 (R1) 1.1691; More

EUR/USD is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 1.1582 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally would now target 1.2 handle next. On the downside, below 1.1582 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.1444 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise fro 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1329; (P) 1.1384; (R1) 1.1429; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Another rise is still expected with 1.1335 minor support intact. Prior break of 1.1419 resistance is taken as the first sign of medium term bottom. Break of 1.1448 will target 1.1514/1569 resistance zone first. However, break of 1.1335 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.1176 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that a medium term bottom could be formed at 1.1176 already. That came after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rally could be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1176 at 1.1703. It’s a bit early to confirm medium term bullish reversal. The structure of the rise from 1.1176 and reaction to 1.1703 fibonacci level will be watched for making an assessment later. But in any case, decisive break of 1.1176 is needed to confirm resumption of down trend. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1935; (P) 1.1956 (R1) 1.1987; More

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.2091 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Overall, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.1822 support holds. Above 1.2091 will extend larger rise from 1.0339 and target next key fibonacci level at 1.2516. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1822 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.1661 support and below.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall fro 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But after all, break of 1.1661 is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1779; (P) 1.1806 (R1) 1.1839; More

EUR/USD drops sharply today but stays above 1.1716 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that decline from 1.2091 is correcting whole rise from 1.0569. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1.22029 resistance holds. Below 1.1716 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510, where we’re expecting support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It’s expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1140; (P) 1.1163; (R1) 1.1186; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral as it continued to lose downside momentum. Near term outlook is unchanged though. Price actions from 1.1111 is a correction pattern and could have completed at 1.1263. Decisive break of 1.1111 will resume larger down trend for 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Though, on the upside, above 1.1224 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend the consolidation from 1.1111 first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is still in progress. Such decline would target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1109; (P) 1.1168 (R1) 1.1205; More….

At this point, EUR/USD is still holding above 1.1109 support and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral with focus on 1.1298 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0922). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1241; (P) 1.1264; (R1) 1.1278; More…..

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.1183 short term bottom extends to as high as 1.1324 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.1448 resistance, and above. For now, we’d expect strong resistance between 1.1448/1569 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.1250 minor support will turn bias to the downside. Decisive break of 1.1176 will resume the down trend from 1.2555.

In the bigger picture, medium term weakness was revived as the weak rebound from 1.1176 was rejected well below 55 week EMA and failed to sustain above 55 day EMA. Focus is back on 1.1176 low, with 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.2555. Such decline target 1.0339 low next. On the upside, firm break of 1.1569 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, downside breakout will be in favor.

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1488; (P) 1.1536 (R1) 1.1600; More…..

A temporary top is in place at 1.1582 in EUR/USD. Intraday bias is turned neutral first for some consolidations. But overall, outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1312 support holds. Above 1.1582 will target 1.1615 key resistance. Decisive break there will pave the way to 1.2 handle next.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.1298 resistance further affirm medium term reversal. That is, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1756). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1118 support holds.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0836; (P) 1.0861; (R1) 1.0903; More

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0891 today but fail to sustain above 1.0885 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that price actions from 1.0635 are seen as a corrective pattern. on the upside, break of 1.0891 minor resistance will start the third leg, towards 1.1147 resistance. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0727 will target a test on 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1813; (P) 1.1896 (R1) 1.1944; More

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 1.2069 might extend and below 1.1822 will bring deeper fall. But after all, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1661 holds. Break of 1.2069 will extend larger rise from 1.0339 to next key fibonacci level at 1.2516. Nonetheless, break of 1.1661 will bring much lengthier consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1774) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1753; (P) 1.1796 (R1) 1.1822; More

EUR/USD drops sharply in early US session but after all it’s staying in consolidation from 1.1908. Break of 1.1688 will bring deeper pull back. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1908 will extend recent up trend to 1.2042 long term support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1702; (P) 1.1796 (R1) 1.1863; More

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, a short term top is formed at 1.1908 on divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper correction is expected as long as 1.1908 holds. Below 1.1727 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606. We’d expect strong support there to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2273; (P) 1.2309 (R1) 1.2337; More….

EUR/USD tried to break 1.2285 support but failed again. Intraday bias remains neutral with focus on 1.2285. Break will indicate hat whole rise from 1.2154 has completed with three waves up to 1.2475. And intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.2154 and below, to extend the decline from 1.2555. That will also be another sign of rejection from 1.2516 key fibonacci level. On the upside, above 1.2344 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2475 and possibly further to 1.2555 high.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term. 

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1334; (P) 1.1351; (R1) 1.1375; More…..

EUR/USD’s breach of 1.1371 suggests resumption of rebound from 1.1234. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside. Rise from 1.1234 is seen as another leg in the consolidation pattern from 1.1215 and should target 1.1514 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.1316 minor support will argue that the rebound is completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1215 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD stayed in consolidation from 1.1179 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further rise is expected with 1.1062 support intact. On the upside break of 1.1179 will resume the rebound from 1.0879 to 1.1412 key resistance. However, break of 1.1062 will argue that rebound from 1.0879 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.0879.

In the bigger picture, at this point, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. Hence, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1603) holds.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2300; (P) 1.2355 (R1) 1.2392; More….

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.2555 is still in progress. But the pair is staying well above 1.2205 key support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.2555 will revive the bullish case of up trend resumption and target 100% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.3075. However, break of 1.2205 will confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci level and trend reversal.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1328; (P) 1.1361; (R1) 1.1391; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook stays bearish with 1.1472 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.1267 will target 1.1215 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 for 1.1186 fibonacci level next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 1.1472 will be suggest medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2173; (P) 1.2207 (R1) 1.2227; More….

EUR/USD’s break of 1.2205 key support is taken as a tentative sign of trend reversal, after being rejected by 1.2516 key fibonacci level. Intraday bias is now on the downside. Sustained trading below 1.2205 will confirm and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708. On the upside, above 1.2354 minor resistance will dampen this bearish case and bring retest of 1.2555 high instead.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.5553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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