Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1254; (P) 1.1312; (R1) 1.1344; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Recovery from 1.1107 might have completed earlier than expected at 1.1412. Break of 1.1181 support will confirm and bring retest of 1.1107 low. Though, above 1.1344 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to resume the rebound from 1.1107 through 1.1412 instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1107 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. Reactions from there could indicate whether rebound from 1.1107 is a corrective rise or reversing medium term trend. In any case, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 1.1107 low remains intact.

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0447 resumed last week and the break of 55 D EMA argues that fall from 1.1274 has completed. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763). Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.0958 next. On the downside, below 1.0609 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern.

In the long term picture, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1087) is needed to be the first sign of bullish trend reversal. Decisive break of 1.2348 structural resistance is needed to confirm. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0782; (P) 1.0819; (R1) 1.0842; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 1.0887 and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0832) will affirm the case that fall from 1.1138 has completed. Stronger rally would then be seen back to 1.1138. However, break of 1.0761 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0694 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1797; (P) 1.1824; (R1) 1.1838; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1792 support argues that rebound from 1.1663 has completed at 1.1908, after rejection by 1.1907 key structural resistance. The development also dampened our original bullish view. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.1663 support. Break there will extend the whole pattern from 1.2348 towards 1.1602 key support level. On the upside, above 1.1850 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for another test on 1.1907/8 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

EUR/USD stayed in range below 1.0929 last week despite attempt to break through the resistance. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.0929 will resume the rally from 1.0515 to retest 1.1032 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534 to 1.1273 fibonacci level next. On the downside, though, break of 1.0711 will turn bias to the downside to extend the corrective pattern from 1.1032 with another decline.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress with 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0460 intact. The strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.0625) was also a medium term bullish sign. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

In the long term picture, while it’s too early to call for long term trend reversal at this point, the strong break of 1.0635 support turned resistance (2020 low) should at least turn outlook neutral. Focus will turn to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1166). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1284; (P) 1.1313; (R1) 1.1338; More…..

EUR?USD’s break of 1.1316 support indicate completion of rebound from 1.1234. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for retesting 1.1215 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555. On the upside, above 1.1345 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.1419 resistance to extend the consolidation from 1.1215.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

EUR/USD rebounded strongly to 1.2148 last week. While it retreated since then, some support was seen from 4 hour 55 day EMA and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.2148 temporary top will reaffirm the case that correction from 1.2348 has completed with three waves down to 1.1951. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.2188 and then 1.2348 high. However, break of 1.2053 minor support will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 1.1951 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1779; (P) 1.1805; (R1) 1.1856; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for retesting 1.2011 high. Firm break there will confirm resumption of rally from 1.0635 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1612 at 1.2462. On the downside, break of 1.1732 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 1.1612 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9911; (P) 1.0000; (R1) 1.0053; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook stays bearish with 1.0121 minor resistance intact. Break of 0.9899 will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0773 to 0.9951 from 1.0368 at 0.9860. Firm break there should prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9546. However, firm break of 1.0121 will dampen this view and turn focus to 1.0368 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2267; (P) 1.2301 (R1) 1.2351; More….

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.2363 earlier today but fails to sustain above 1.2354 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.2363 should extend the rebound from 1.2154 to retest 1.2555 high. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implication. On the downside, break of 1.2154 would revive the case of rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci level and trend reversal. Outlook will be turned bearish for 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1605; (P) 1.1637; (R1) 1.1665; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 1.1523 short term bottoming is in progress. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.1707) will be a sign that larger correction from 1.2348 has completed. Stronger rally would be seen to 1.1908 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, break of 1.1571 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1523 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2348 should at least be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low). As long as 1.1908 resistance holds, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Nevertheless break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0768; (P) 1.0798; (R1) 1.0837; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.0759 temporary low. But deeper decline is expected as long as 1.0903 resistance holds. Fall from 1.1094 is seen as correcting whole up trend from 0.9534. Below 1.0759 will target 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, though, firm break of 1.0903 will bring stronger rebound back to retest 1.1094 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0990; (P) 1.1014; (R1) 1.1059; More…

EUR/SUD is staying in consolidation from 1.0926 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Stronger recovery might be seen. But upside should be limited below 1.1164 resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 1.0926 will target 100% projection of 1.1412 to 1.1026 from 1.1249 at 1.0683. However, firm break of 1.1164 will turn near term outlook bullish for 1.1412 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1884; (P) 1.1913; (R1) 1.1940; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside despite mild loss of upside momentum. Decisive break of 1.2011 high will resume whole rally from 1.0635 low. On the downside, though, break of 1.1800 support will turn bias to the downside, to extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2011 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0979; (P) 1.1017; (R1) 1.1050; More…

EUR/USD drops sharply today but stays above 1.0926 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Consolidation from 1.0926 could extend with another recovery. But upside is expected to be limited below 1.1164 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.0926 will resume lager down trend from 1.2555 for 1.0813 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1309; (P) 1.1335; (R1) 1.1368; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Price action from 1.1185 are seen as corrective move. Break of 1.1284 will argue that larger down trend from 1.2348 is ready to resume. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.1185 low first. Also, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2265 to 1.1185 at 1.1598 eventually.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1892; (P) 1.1929; (R1) 1.1974; More…..

Intraday bias stays on the upside at this point. Current rally should now target 61.8% projection of 1.1255 to 1.1965 from 1.1762 at 1.2201. On the downside, below 1.1921 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. But break of 1.1762 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0849; (P) 1.0901; (R1) 1.0998; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise form 1.0634 should target a retest on 1.1094 high. . Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 0.9534. On the downside, below 1.0863 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

EUR/USD rose to as high as 1.1908 last week but formed a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1698 minor support will suggest short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for deeper pull back. But downside should be contained above 1.1422 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.1908 will resume the whole rise from 1.0635 instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.1496 resistance now suggests that whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise from 1.0635 should be the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1748). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

EUR/USD surged to as high as 1.2537 last week and breached key fibonacci level at 1.2494/2516. But a temporary top was then formed and it retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.2222 support holds. Sustained break of 1.2494/2516 will target 100% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.3075 next. However, break of 1.2222 will indicate rejection from 1.2494/2516, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. But key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 is looking vulnerable. Sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862. Nonetheless, rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action from 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive pattern. reaction to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 will give important clue to the underlying momentum.