GBPJPY Outlook

GBP/JPY's fell sharply last week but the decline halted after hitting 38.2% retracement of 197.47 to 214.98 at 208.29. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained break of 208.29 will suggest that larger scale correction is already underway and target 203.27 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 210.47 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and bring retest of 214.83/98 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, considering the break of 55 D EMA (now at 209.96), a medium term top could be formed at 214.98. Deeper correction would be seen, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 214.98 at 203.27. On the upside, break of 214.98 will resume larger up trend from from 123.94 (2020 low), and target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90.

In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 184.02) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 207.25; (P) 208.41; (R1) 209.24; More...

Immediate focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 197.47 to 214.83 at 208.19 in GBP/JPY. Sustained break there will argue that it's already correcting whole up trend from 184.35. However, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 210.47 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and bring retest of 214.83/98 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 205.30 resistance turned support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 207.73; (P) 209.35; (R1) 210.51; More...

GBP/JPY's fall from 214.83 accelerated lower and immediate focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 197.47 to 214.83 at 208.19. Sustained break there will argue that it's already correcting whole up trend from 184.35. However, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 210.47 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and bring retest of 214.83/98 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 205.30 resistance turned support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.