GBP/JPY extended the consolidation pattern from 168.67 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 163.91 will bring stronger rise to 166.31 resistance. On the downside, below 160.07 will turn bias to the downside for 159.42 and below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

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In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 could be the third leg the the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Further rise will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 149.84) holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. will pave the way to 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.48; (P) 145.49; (R1) 147.26; More…

GBP/JPY failed to break through 148.57 resistance and dropped sharply since then. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 148.75 will resume rebound from 131.51 and target 149.48 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 143.72 will resume the pull back from 148.57 to 141.00 support.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline in turn argues that it’s the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above. However, firm break of 141.00 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 131.51 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.71; (P) 137.73; (R1) 138.66; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with today’s strong rebound. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 140.70 resistance holds. The pattern from 142.71 should have started the third leg. Below 136.78 will target 134.40 support and then 133.03. However, break of 140.70 will invalidate this view and extend the rebound from 133.03.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.22; (P) 137.61; (R1) 138.03; More…

Further fall is in favor in GBP/JPY with 138.86 minor resistance intact. Corrective rebound from 133.03 has completed with three waves up to 140.31. Large fall from 142.71 might be resuming. Deeper fall would be seen to 133.03/134.40 support zone first. On the upside, though, break of 138.86 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 140.31 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen only as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.91; (P) 152.57; (R1) 153.67; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Current fall from 158.04 should target 148.94 support next. On the upside, break of 155.20 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, outlook will be mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 158.19 are seen as developing into a consolidation pattern to up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10 to bring rebound. Firm break of 158.19 will resume the up trend to long term fibonacci level at 167.93. However, sustained break of 145.10 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 137.02.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.38; (P) 140.04; (R1) 140.46; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in consolidation from 141.50 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another fall cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained above 135.74 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 141.50 will resume the rise from 126.54 to for 148.87 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is still in progress with rise from 126.54 as the third leg. Further rise should be seen back to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. For now, we’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. And, this will remain the favored case as long as 130.42 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.79; (P) 153.00; (R1) 153.29; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Current rise from 123.94 should target 156.59 long term resistance next. On the downside, below 152.27 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 148.50 support holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Next target is 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. On the downside, break of 142.71 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.33; (P) 164.91; (R1) 166.02; More…

GBP/JPY is still bounded in range below 166.38 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 166.38, and sustained trading above 165.99 resistance will resume the whole rebound from 155.33 to 169.26 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 162.75 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias to the downside for 158.24 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.59; (P) 137.96; (R1) 138.43; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 136.55 is extending. In case of stronger rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 146.50 to 136.55 at 140.35 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 136.55 will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 148.87 to 131.51 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY’s medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it’s just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

GBP/JPY dived to 148.43 last week but rebound strongly, after drawing support from 149.03 support. Corrective fall from 156.05 might have completed already. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside for 153.46 resistance first. Firm break there will pave the way to retest 156.05 high. On the downside, however, break of 150.71 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 148.43 again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Focus remains on 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, sustained break of 149.03 support, however, will argue that rise from 123.94 has completed. Further break of 142.71 would open up the bearish case for retesting 122.75 low.

In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA was an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.71; (P) 166.38; (R1) 167.53; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 168.67 high first. Decisive break there will confirm and target 100% projection of 155.57 to 168.67 from 159.42 at 172.42. On the downside, below 164.28 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.17; (P) 156.62; (R1) 157.20; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral first as it recovered ahead of 155.33 support. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 161.22 resistance holds. Decisive break of 155.33 will resume whole decline from 172.11 to 153.70 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, as long as 163.02 support turned resistance holds, decline from 172.11 medium term top is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 172.11 at 153.70. Sustained break there will raise the change of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 142.34. Nevertheless, break of 163.02 support turned resistance will argue that the decline has completed, and retain medium term bullishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.61; (P) 151.88; (R1) 152.25; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral first with today’s retreat. Another rise is in favor as long as 150.71 minor support holds. Above 152.12 will resume the rebound from 148.43 to 153.46 resistance first. . Firm break there will pave the way to retest 156.05 high. On the downside, however, break of 150.71 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 148.43 again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Focus remains on 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, sustained break of 149.03 support, however, will argue that rise from 123.94 has completed. Further break of 142.71 would open up the bearish case for retesting 122.75 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.65; (P) 153.21; (R1) 153.61; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside at this point. The break of 55 day EMA dampened our original bullish view. Deeper fall could now be seen back to 148.93 structural support level. On the upside, break of 154.63 minor resistance will revive near term bullishness and turn bias back to the upside for 158.19 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). The stay above 55 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Current rise should now target 61.8% retracement 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93 next. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 148.93 structural support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.91; (P) 147.82; (R1) 148.46; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 149.70 is still in progress. With 145.67 support intact, outlook stays bullish and further rally is expected. On the upside, above 149.70 will target 153.84/156.69 resistance zone next. However, break of 145.67 will suggest that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds. However, break of 145.67 will turn focus back to 139.29/47 key support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.74; (P) 132.37; (R1) 132.89; More…

A temporary low is formed at 131.61 in GBP/JPY and intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited by 135.66 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, decisive break of 131.51 low will resume larger decline from 156.69 for 122.36 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it’s just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.28; (P) 153.48; (R1) 154.31; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral at this point. Another fall is expected with 155.16 resistance intact. Break of 152.63 will resume the fall from 158.04 to 148.94 support. However, firm break of 155.16 will argue that fall from 158.04 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 158.04/19.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 158.19 are seen as developing into a consolidation pattern to up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10 to bring rebound. Firm break of 158.19 will resume the up trend to long term fibonacci level at 167.93. However, sustained break of 145.10 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 137.02.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.42; (P) 132.86; (R1) 133.33; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral first. On the downside, break of 132.17 will indicate completion of rebound from 126.54. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 126.54. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 148.87 to 126.54 at 135.07 will extend the rebound from 126.54 to 61.8% retracement at 140.33 next.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is possibly still in progress. Strong rebound from 126.54 argues that it may be the third leg of the pattern. Further rise could be seen to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone before completion. On the downside, though, sustained break of 122.75 low will extend 116.83 (2011 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.59; (P) 150.95; (R1) 151.62; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 148.93 key structural support will carry larger bearish implications. Next target is 161.8% projection of 158.19 to 152.35 from 154.70 at 145.25. On the upside, however, break of 152.35 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back from 158.19 is complete. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 158.19 high.

In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel support, and bearish divergence condition in week MACD are raising the chance of medium term topping at 158.19. Firm break of 148.93 support will argue that GBP/JPY is at least correcting the whole rise from 123.94 (2020 low). In this case, deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 148.93 will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 158.19 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.75; (P) 169.05; (R1) 169.78; More…

No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral for consolidation below 172.11. Downside of retreat should be contained above 164.95 support to bring another rally. Break of 172.11 will resume larger up trend and target 100% projection of 148.93 to 165.69 from 159.71 at 176.47 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), as part of the trend from 122.75 (2016 low) is still in progress. Further rise would be seen to 161.8% projection of 122.75 to 156.59 (2018 high) from 123.94 at 178.69. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.93 support holds.