Wed, Oct 16, 2019 @ 04:49 GMT

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3145; (P) 1.3193; (R1) 1.3284; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the upside for 1.3362 resistance and possibly above. But price actions from 1.3048 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, upside is expected to be limited by 1.3471 to bring larger decline resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3048 will resume fall from 1.4376 for 1.2874 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4179). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.3048 at 1.3555 is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s rise from 1.37111 resumed last week and reached as high as 1.4295. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.4345 high first. Firm break there will resume medium term rally and target 61.8% projection of 1.3038 to 1.4345 from 1.3711 at 1.4519 next. On the downside, below 1.4220 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But retreat should be contained well above 1.3964 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3651 resistance turned support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remain bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down trend from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4267) so far. Break of 1.3651 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and turn focus to 1.3038 support for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 should at least be correcting the whole long term down trend from 2.1161 and should target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. It too early to tell if it’s developing into a long term up trend. We’ll monitor the upside momentum and reaction to 1.5466 to decide later.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

Despite dipping to 1.3964 initially last week, GBP/USD drew solid support from 1.3982 and rebounded. The break of 1.4096 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.4243 has completed already. Initial bias is turned back to the upside for 1.4243 first. Break will target a test on 1.4345 high next. On the downside, however, sustained break of 1.3964/82 will indicate completion of the rise from 1.3711. In that case, deeper decline should be seen back to retest 1.3711.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3651 resistance turned support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remain bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down trend from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4267) so far. Break of 1.3651 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and turn focus to 1.3038 support for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 should at least be correcting the whole long term down trend from 2.1161 and should target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. It too early to tell if it’s developing into a long term up trend. We’ll monitor the upside momentum and reaction to 1.5466 to decide later.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2046; (P) 1.2098; (R1) 1.2145; More….

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.2014 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 1.2209 minor resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside break of 1.2014 will target 1.1946 low first. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2391 from 1.3381 at 1.1396. On the upside, break of 1.2209 resistance will suggest short term bottoming. In this case, lengthier consolidation should be seen first before another decline.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4376 (2018 high) is extending towards 1.1946 low. We’d be cautious on bottoming there. But decisive break will resume down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) to 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.4376 at 1.1135. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s fall from 1.4376 resumed last week and reached 1.3290. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161. On the upside, break of 1.3568 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3730) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 (2016 low) is viewed as a corrective move, no change in this view. Rejection from 55 month EMA argues that it might be completed already. Larger down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) could extend to a new low. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.4376 resistance holds.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

Despite dipping to 1.3450 last week, GBP/USD failed to take out 1.344 fibonacci level and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.3607 minor resistance will confirm short term bottoming. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3801). Nonetheless, on the downside, decisive break of 1.3448 will resume the whole fall from 1.4376 and target next fibonacci level at 1.2874.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 was almost met. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3801) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 (2016 low) is viewed as a corrective move, no change in this view. Rejection from 55 month EMA argues that it might be completed already. Larger down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) could extend to a new low. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.4376 resistance holds.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2353; (P) 1.2406; (R1) 1.2437; More

GBP/USD’s decline accelerates to as low as 1.2285 so far today after taking out 1.2382 support firmly. Medium term fall from 1.4376 has already resumed. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2391 from 1.3381 at 1.2154 next. Break will target 1.1946 low. On the upside, above 1.2391 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited by 1.2558 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4376 (2018 high) is still in progress and is resuming. Such decline should target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low) next. For now, we don’t expect a firm break there yet. Hence, focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4000; (P) 1.4029; (R1) 1.4048; More….

GBP/USD recovers ahead of 1.3982 minor support but it’s limited well below 1.4243 so far. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 1.3982 minor support intact, further rise remains mildly in favor. On the upside, above 1.4243 will resume the rise from 1.3711 and target 1.4345 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend and target 61.8% projection of 1.3038 to 1.4345 from 1.3711 at 1.4519 next. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.3982 will indicate completion of rebound from 1.3711. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.3711.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.3711 extended higher last week and break of 1.4144 resistance affirmed the bullish case. That is, pull back from 1.4345 has completed at 1.3711 already. Further rise is expected this week for retesting 1.4345 first. Break there will resume larger up trend and target 61.8% projection of 1.3038 to 1.4345 from 1.3711 at 1.4519 next. Nonetheless, break of 1.3982 will argue that rebound from 1.3711 has completed. And, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.3711 support and possibly below, to extend the corrective pattern from 1.4345.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 should at least be correcting the whole long term down trend form 2.1161 and should target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. It too early to tell if it’s developing into a long term up trend. We’ll monitor the upside momentum and reaction to 1.5466 to decide later.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2920; (P) 1.2981; (R1) 1.3020; More….

GBP/USD’s fall from 1.3176 resumes by taking out 1.2967 minor support and intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2865 key support. Decisive break there will revive the bearish case that rebound from 1.2391 has completed at 1.3381. Near term outlook will turn be turned bearish. On upside, above 1.3176 will retain the bullish case and target a retest on 1.3381 high next.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) halted and made a medium term bottom after hitting 1.2391. Rebound from 1.2391 is seen as a corrective move for now. In case of another rise, strong resistance could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.2773 support will suggests that such corrective rise is completed and bring retest of 1.2391 low first.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2883; (P) 1.2929; (R1) 1.3004; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral with focus now back on 1.3001 temporary top. Break there will resume whole rebound from 1.2391 and target 1.3174 resistance, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3149. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. For now, further rise is expected as long as 1.2668 minor support holds, even in case of another retreat. But break of 1.2668 support will argue that such rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2391 low.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). And this will remain the preferred case as long as 1.3174 structural resistance holds. GBP/USD should target a test on 1.1946 first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view. However, sustained break of 1.3174 will invalidate this case and turn outlook bullish.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s sharp decline last week suggests that corrective rebound from 1.2956 has completed at 1.3212 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.2956. Firm break there will resume larger decline from 1.4376 for 1.2874 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.3064 minor resistance will possibly extend the correction from 1.2956 with another rebound through 1.3212. But even in that case, upside should be limited by 1.3362 resistance to bring larger decline resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4141). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1946 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. Decisive break of 1.2874 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 1.1946 low. On the upside, break of 1.3362 resistance is needed to be the first indication of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 (2016 low) is viewed as a corrective move, no change in this view. Rejection from 55 month EMA argues that it might be completed already. Larger down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) could extend to a new low. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.4376 resistance holds.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2097; (P) 1.2139; (R1) 1.2212; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation fro 1.2014 is extending. Outlook stays bearish with 1.2209 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.2014 will resume recent fall to 1.1946 low first. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2391 from 1.3381 at 1.1396. On the upside, break of 1.2209 resistance will suggest short term bottoming. In this case, strong rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2396).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4376 (2018 high) is extending towards 1.1946 low. We’d be cautious on bottoming there. But decisive break will resume down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) to 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.4376 at 1.1135. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.4376 last week but reversed and dropped sharply to close at 1.3995. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.3965 support first. Break there will pave the way to 1.3711 key support level. On the upside, above 1.4069 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But for now, near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.4173 holds).

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in daily MACD is raising the chance of medium term reversal. Also, note that GBP/USD has just failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4257). Focus is back on 1.3711 support. Firm break there will confirm medium term reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. For now, sustained break of 55 month EMA is needed to confirm medium term upside momentum. Otherwise, we won’t turn bullish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 (2016 low) is viewed as a corrective move, no change in this view. Focus stays on 55 month EMA (now at 1.4257. Rejection from there will turn focus back to 1.1946 low and could probably extend the down trend from 2.1161. On the other hand, sustained break of the EMA would at least bring further rally to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3720; (P) 1.3755; (R1) 1.3799; More

GBP/USD’s decline continues today and reaches as low as 1.3654 so far. The break of 1.3711 key support indicates medium term reversal. That is, whole rally from 1.1946 has completed. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.3448 fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 1.3791 resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in daily MACD is raising the chance of medium term reversal. Also, note that GBP/USD has just failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4248) again. Focus is back on 1.3711 support. Firm break there will confirm medium term reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. For now, sustained break of 55 month EMA is needed to confirm medium term upside momentum. Otherwise, we won’t turn bullish even in case of strong rebound.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3927; (P) 1.4008; (R1) 1.4103; More….

GBP/USD’s retreat suggests temporary topping at 1.4087. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is expected as long as 1.3888 minor support holds. Correction from 1.4345 could have completed at 1.3711 already. Above 1.4087 will target 1.4144 resistance first. Firm break there should confirm this bullish view and target 1.4345 and above. On the downside, however, break of 1.3888 minor support will dampen this bullish view. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside to extend the decline from 1.4345 through 1.3711 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD recovered further to 1.3995 last week but lost momentum since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Above 1.3995 will target 1.4144 resistance. Break there will confirm completion of correction from 1.4345 and target retest of this high. On the downside, below 1.3873 minor support will turn bias to the downside to extend the corrective fall from 1.4345. In that case, GBP/USD will target 1.3651 resistance turned support next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 should at least be correcting the whole long term down trend form 2.1161 and should target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. It too early to tell if it’s developing into a long term up trend. We’ll monitor the upside momentum and reaction to 1.5466 to decide later.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s decline from 1.4376 extended to as low as 1.3746 last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.3711 key support level. Decisive break there should confirm medium term reversal and target 1.3448 fibonacci level. On the upside, above 1.3835 minor resistance. will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in daily MACD is raising the chance of medium term reversal. Also, note that GBP/USD has just failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4257) again. Focus is back on 1.3711 support. Firm break there will confirm medium term reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. For now, sustained break of 55 month EMA is needed to confirm medium term upside momentum. Otherwise, we won’t turn bullish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 (2016 low) is viewed as a corrective move, no change in this view. Focus stays on 55 month EMA (now at 1.4257). Rejection from there will turn focus back to 1.1946 low and could probably extend the down trend from 2.1161. On the other hand, sustained break of the EMA would at least bring further rally to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD dipped to 1.2692 initially last week but rebounded strongly ahead of 1.2661 key support. The development suggests that fall from 1.3297 has completed and the consolidation pattern from 1.2661 is extending with another rising leg. Further rise is expected this week as long as 1.2908 minor support holds. Rise from 1.2692 should target 1.3297 resistance Nonetheless, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.3316 fibonacci level to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2908 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2692 instead.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.

In the longer term picture, outlook in GBP/USD is held bearish. Rebound from 1.1946 was rejected solidly by falling 55 month EMA. The pair was limited well below 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946, as well as the decade long falling trend line. On break of 1.1946, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.4376 at 1.1135.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3178; (P) 1.3226; (R1) 1.3269; More

GBP/USD lost some upside momentum ahead of 1.3314 minor resistance, as seen in 4 hour MACD. Outlook is unchanged though. While recovery from 1.3048 might extend, we’d still expect upside to be limited by 1.3314 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.3048 will resume the fall from 1.4376 and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.2875 first. However, break of 1.3314 will bring stronger rebound back to 1.3471 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4121). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3471 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

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