GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s break of 1.2999 support last week indicates resumption of larger down trend from 1.4248. Initial bias is now on the downside this week. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3641 to 1.2999 from 1.3297 at 1.2900. On the upside, break of 1.3165 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248. Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In any case, break of 1.3748 resistance is needed confirm completion of the fall from 1.4248, or outlook will stay bearish.

In the longer term picture, rebound from 1.1409 long term bottom could have completed at 1.4248 already, well ahead of 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. The development argues that price actions from 1.1409 are developing into a corrective pattern only. That is, long term bearishness is retained for resuming the downside from 2.1161 (2007 high) at a later stage.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2422; (P) 1.2485; (R1) 1.2528; More

GBP/USD is still bounded in range of 1.2346/2705 and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a consolidation pattern, with rise from 1.1986 as the third leg. In case of another rise, we’d expect upside to be limited by 1.2774 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2346 will revive the case that such consolidation is completed at 1.2705 already. In that case, intraday bias will turn back to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3230; (P) 1.3293; (R1) 1.3344; More….

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.3482 and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 1.3053 support holds, near term outlook will remain bullish for another rally. On the upside, break of 1.3482 will target 1.3514 key resistance next. Though, firm break of 1.3053 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper correction to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2955) and below.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 1.3514 resistance. Decisive break there should at least confirm medium term bottoming at 1.1409. Further rise should be seen to 1.4376 resistance first. Though, rejection by 1.3514 will retain bearishness for resuming the down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) at a later stage.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2905; (P) 1.2962; (R1) 1.2996; More….

GBP/USD’s fall is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2773 support. Decisive break there will confirm that corrective rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3381. Further decline should then be seen to 1.2391 low again. On the upside, though, break of 1.3019 minor resistance will dampen this bearish case and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) halted after hitting 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 could have completed after just missing 50% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.338. Such rebound could be a correction to fall from 1.4376 only. Break of 1.2773 support will affirm this bearish case and target 1.2391. Break of 1.2391 will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946 (2016 low).

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3814; (P) 1.3842; (R1) 1.3864; More

GBP/USD’s retreat from 1.3890 extends lower today but stays above 1.3730 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 1.3890 will resume the rise from 1.3601 to 1.3982 resistance first. Decisive break there will l indicate that fall from 1.4248 has completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.4248. However, on the downside, break of 1.3730 support will bring retest of 1.3570/3601 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3482 resistance turned support holds, we’d still treat price actions from 1.4248 as a corrective move. That is, up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is in favor to resume. Decisive break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) would indeed carry long term bullish implications. However, sustained break of 1.3482 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, or even further to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2682; (P) 1.2731; (R1) 1.2789; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point as consolidation from 1.2847 is extending. On the upside, firm break of 1.2847 will resume larger up trend from 1.0351 to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095. On the downside, though, break of 1.2589 will extend the fall from 1.2847 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2558).

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 1.2341) is a medium term bullish sign. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2306 support holds. Rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further to retest 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2988; (P) 1.3034; (R1) 1.3101; More….

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.3109 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 1.3109 will target 1.3174/3217 resistance zone. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.2661, h: 1.2391, rs: 1.2773). That would indicate bullish reversal for 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. On the downside, break of 1.2938 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2773 instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 1.3174 resistance with current rebound. Sustained break will indicate completion of decline from 1.4376. Rise from 1.2391 would then be seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). In that case, further rise could be seen through 1.4376 resistance. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3174 again will extend the decline from 1.4376 through 1.2391 to 1.1946 low.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3020; (P) 1.3086; (R1) 1.3126; More

While the decline from 1.3174 extends lower today, GBP/USD is held above 1.2951 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and another rise cannot be ruled out. On the upside, above 1.3174 will target 1.3257/3297 resistance zone. However, as rise from 1.2692 is viewed as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.2661, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.3316 fibonacci level to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2951 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2692 and then 1.2661 key support.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2653; (P) 1.2687; (R1) 1.2734; More…

Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained above 1.2499 support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.2784 resistance will suggest that consolidation pattern has completed. Further rise should be seen through 1.2826 to resume the rally from 1.2036. Next target will be 1.3141 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg that’s in progress. Upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2499 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3190; (P) 1.3247; (R1) 1.3309; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. Further rise is expected as long as 1.2960 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 1.3381 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2734; (P) 1.2762; (R1) 1.2795; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2722 temporary low. Stronger recovery could be seen. But upside should be limited below 1.2956 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.2722 will extend recent decline to 161.8% projection of 1.3362 to 1.2956 from 1.3212 at 1.2555 next.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4141). Current downside acceleration argues that it’s possibly resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3212 resistance holds. Retest of 1.1946 should be seen next.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1929; (P) 1.1996; (R1) 1.2076; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.2055 minor resistance will confirm short term bottoming at 1.1759. Bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.2405 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1759 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2986).

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1813; (P) 1.1836; (R1) 1.1868; More

A temporary low is formed at 1.1801 with current recovery and intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first. Another fall could be seen as long as 1.1914 support turned resistance holds. Below 1.1801 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2446 at 1.1646. Firm break there would carry larger bearish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1914 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, break of 1.1840 support argues that a double top pattern (1.2445, 1.2446) was formed after rejection by 55 week EMA (now at 1.2228). Deeper decline should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2446 at 1.1646. Sustained break there will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1151.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3798; (P) 1.3831; (R1) 1.3885; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current up trend from 1.1409 should target 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956. Break there will target 1.4376 long tem resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.3774 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 medium term bottom is in progress. Further rally would be seen to 1.4376 resistance and above. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication. On the downside, break of 1.2675 support is needed to indicate completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish even in case of deep pullback.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3702 last week but retreated against quickly. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3428 support holds. Break of 1.3702 will resume whole rise from 1.1409 to 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956. On the downside, break of 1.3428 support will indicate short term top, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.3514 structural resistance and sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.3328) should confirm medium term bottoming at 1.1409. Rise from there should now extend to 1.4376 resistance and above. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2675 support holds.

In the longer term picture, a short term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3578; (P) 1.3608; (R1) 1.3645; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the upside as rebound from 1.3410 is trying to resume. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1.3730) will affirm near term bullishness and target 1.3912 key resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.3542 minor support will retain near term bearishness, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3410 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 is at least a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low). Such correction could extend to 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164 before completion. However, considering the rejection by 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high), sustained trading below 1.3164 will argue that it’s indeed a bearish trend reversal and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493. Nevertheless, break of 1.3912 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and target 1.4248/4376 resistance zone again.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2282; (P) 1.2378; (R1) 1.2512; More

GBP/USD is staying in tight range and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.2144 minor support will suggest completion of the rebound from 1.1409 and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1409 low. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3200 to 1.1409 at 1.2516 will raise the chance of larger reversal and turn focus to 1.3200 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) has just resumed. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3514 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2986; (P) 1.3049; (R1) 1.3165; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.2108 to 1.3047 from 1.2588 at 1.3168. Overall, choppy rebound from 1.1946 is seen as a corrective pattern, hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.3168 to limit upside. But firm break of 1.3168 will bring further rise towards 1.3444 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.2999 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. While further upside is expected, overall outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Larger down trend from 1.7190 is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.

GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3203; (P) 1.3238; (R1) 1.3284; More

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.3313 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rise is in favor with 1.3106 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3313 will target a test on 1.3482 high. However, sustained break of 1.3106 will argue that the rebound from 1.2675 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2853 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3514 key resistance. Decisive break there should also come with sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.3304). That should confirm medium term bottoming at 1.1409. Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.4376 resistance and above. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3514 will maintain medium term bearishness for another lower below 1.1409 at a later stage.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3464; (P) 1.3496; (R1) 1.3557; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral with focus on 1.3523 minor resistance. Further fall is still in favor with 1.3523 intact. Break of 1.3356 will resume the decline from 1.3748 to retest 1.3158 low, as part of the down trend form 1.4248. However, firm break of 1.3523 minor resistance will dampen this bearish case and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3748.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164 holds, up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.3164 will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.