USDCAD Outlook

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.3480 accelerated high last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981. Decisive break there will argue that it's already reversing the whole down trend from 1.4791, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290. On the downside, below 1.3844 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3751 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, break of 1.3927 resistance will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3574) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3820; (P) 1.3844; (R1) 1.3886; More...

USD/CAD's rally from 1.3480 is in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. It's seen as correcting the whole down trend from 1.4791 and should target 1.3927 resistance, or probably further to 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 3981. On the downside, below 1.3816 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, break of 1.3927 resistance will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3766; (P) 1.3794; (R1) 1.3838; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 1.3480 is seen as correcting the whole down trend from 1.4791 and should target 1.3927 resistance, or probably further to 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 3981. On the downside, below 1.3771 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, break of 1.3927 resistance will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.