Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2740; (P) 1.2767; (R1) 1.2806; More….

USD/CAD’s fall resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as low as 1.2713 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Fall from 1.3124 short term top should target 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581 next. On the upside, above 1.2818 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2942 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2740; (P) 1.2767; (R1) 1.2806; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2732 temporary low. Near term outlook stays bearish for deeper decline. A short term top is ate least formed at 1.3124 with head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). Below 1.2732 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581 next. However, break of 1.2942 will invalidate this bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3214 high.

In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

USD/CAD dropped to 1.2732 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week. Overall development suggests near term reversal, with head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). Hence, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2942 resistance holds. Below 1.2732 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581 next. However, break of 1.2942 will invalidate this bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3214 high.

In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we’ll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that’s completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2728; (P) 1.2767; (R1) 1.2790; More….

USD/CAD’s decline continues today and hit as low as 1.2734 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside. As noted before, near term trend should have reversed with head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). Decline from 1.3124 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581 next. Also, noted that current development suggest rejection by 1.3065 fibonacci level. And deeper decline could be seen back to 1.2246 and below eventually. On the upside, above 1.2805 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But break of 1.2942 is needed to confirm completion of the decline. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, outlooks is turned a bit mixed again. Strong support was seen from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. But there was no follow through buying above 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2728; (P) 1.2767; (R1) 1.2790; More….

USD/CAD’s downside momentum diminished a bit as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias stays on the downside for deeper fall. As noted before, near term trend should have reversed with head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). Decline from 1.3124 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581 next. Also, noted that current development suggest rejection by 1.3065 fibonacci level. And deeper decline could be seen back to 1.2246 and below eventually. On the upside, above 1.2846 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But break of 1.2942 is needed to confirm completion of the decline. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, outlooks is turned a bit mixed again. Strong support was seen from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. But there was no follow through buying above 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2732; (P) 1.2789; (R1) 1.2822; More….

USD/CAD drops to as low as 1.2744 so far as decline from 1.3124 extends. The break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789 should confirm near term reversal, with head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% retracement at 1.2581 next. Also, noted that current development suggest rejection by 1.3065 fibonacci level. And deeper decline could be seen back to 1.2246 and below eventually. On the upside, break of 1.2942 is needed to confirm completion of the decline. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, outlooks is turned a bit mixed again. Strong support was seen from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. But there was no follow through buying above 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2750; (P) 1.2837; (R1) 1.2892; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with focus on 38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789. Near term trend could have reversed with head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). Sustained trading below 1.2789 will confirm this case. It will also indicate rejection by 1.3065 fibonacci level. Deeper fall would than be seen back to 1.2246 support next. On the upside, though, break of 1.2942 will indicate support from 1.2789 and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3124.

In the bigger picture, outlooks is turned a bit mixed again. Strong support was seen from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. But there was no follow through buying above 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2868; (P) 1.2906; (R1) 1.2949; More….

USD/CAD’s sharp decline today now puts 38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789 into focus. Sustained break there should confirm near term reversal, on head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). That will also indicate rejection by 1.3065 fibonacci level. Deeper fall would than be seen back to 1.2246 support next. On the upside, though, break of 1.2942 will indicate support from 1.2789 and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3124.

In the bigger picture, outlooks is turned a bit mixed again. Strong support was seen from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. But there was no follow through buying above 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2868; (P) 1.2906; (R1) 1.2949; More….

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation above 1.2814 and intraday bias remains neutral first. For the moment, we’d still expect strong support from 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.3214 will extend larger rise from 1.2061 to 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2246 support instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is, larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2868; (P) 1.2884; (R1) 1.2908; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. We’d still expect strong support from 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rise is expected to resume later. And break of of 1.3124 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, on the downside firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2773) and below.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is, larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2833; (P) 1.2868; (R1) 1.2922; More….

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. We continue to expect strong support from 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rise is expected to resume later. And break of of 1.3124 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2766) and below.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is, larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2833; (P) 1.2868; (R1) 1.2922; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral. We continue to expect strong support from 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rise is expected to resume later. And break of of 1.3124 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2750) and below.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is, larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2813; (P) 1.2868; (R1) 1.2896; More….

USD/CAD continues to stay in range of 1.2802/3124 and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias stays neutral first. For the moment, we continue to expect strong support from 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rise is expected to resume later. And break of of 1.3124 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2750) and below.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is, larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2833; (P) 1.2885; (R1) 1.2947; More….

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook. We’d expect strong support from 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rise is expected to resume later. And break of of 1.3124 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2751) and below.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is, larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3124 last week but retreated sharply since than. A short term top was in place and more consolidative trading would be seen in near term. At this point, we’d continue to expect strong support from 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside. Break of 1.3124 will extend recent rally to 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2741) and below.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is, larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we’ll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that’s completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2863; (P) 1.2905; (R1) 1.2982; More….

USD/CAD drops sharply in early US session. But for the moment, it’s still staying above 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789). Price actions from 1.3124 are viewed as a near term pull back only. And intraday bias stays neutral, and bullish outlook is unchanged. That is, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.3124 will extend recent rally to 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2741).

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2863; (P) 1.2905; (R1) 1.2982; More….

At this point, USD/CAD is holding above 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789). Intraday bias remains neutral and bullish outlook is unchanged. That is, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.3124 will extend recent rally to 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2741).

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2835; (P) 1.2955; (R1) 1.3022; More….

USD/CAD’s decline from 1.3124 accelerated to as low as 1.2879 so far and is pressing near term channel support. While further fall could still be seen, we’d anticipate strong support at 1.2802 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3124 will extend recent rally to 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2704.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3047; (P) 1.3075; (R1) 1.3098; More….

USD/CAD’s retreat from 1.31214 extends lower today and reaches 1.3009 so far. Deeper fall could be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2986). But strong support should be seen above 1.2802 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 1.3124 will extend recent rally to 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3040; (P) 1.3082; (R1) 1.3118; More….

A temporary top is in place at USD/CAD at 1.3124 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations would be seen. But downside should be contained by 1.2802 support and bring rise resumption. Above 1.3124 will extend recent rally to 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds.