USDCAD Outlook

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.3480 short term bottom extended higher last week but lost momentum after hitting 1.3723. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3791) to complete the corrective bounce. On the downside, break of 1.3625 will bring retest of 1.3480. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4791 to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3569) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3673; (P) 1.3693; (R1) 1.3733; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is back on the upside as rebound from 1.3480 is resuming for 55 D EMA (now at 1.3788). Strong resistance could be seen there to complete the corrective bounce. On the downside, below 1.3625 support will bring retest of 1.3480 low. Firm break there will resume larger fall to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. However, sustained trading above 55 D EMA will raise the chance of near term bullish reversal, and target 1.3927 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, and break of 1.3538 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3634; (P) 1.3659; (R1) 1.3689; More...

Intraday bias USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 1.3701 will resume the rebound from 1.3480 short term bottom to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3793). On the downside, below 1.3570 minor support will bring retest of 1.3480 low. Firm break there will resume larger fall to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, and break of 1.3538 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.