USDCAD Outlook

USD/CAD rebounded strongly after initial dip to 1.3928. Pullback from 1.4298 could have completed after failing to sustain below 38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4298 at 1.3986. Initial bias is back on the upside this week for retesting 1.4298 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3928 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective rebound from 1.3480 has completed at 1.4298 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 at 1.4290. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3929) will solidify this case. That would in turn indicate that fall from 1.4791 might be ready to resume. Retest of 1.3480 low should be seen next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4298 holds.

In the long term picture, strong support from 55 M EMA (now at 1.3654) argues that up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.4791 is in favor at a later stage. However, firm break of 55 D EMA will argue that the five-wave up trend has already completed.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current recovery. On the upside, firm break of 1.4067 indicate short term bottoming, on bullish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Stronger rebound would be seen back to retest 1.4298 high. ON the downside, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4298 at 1.3986 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3792 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective rebound from 1.3480 has completed at 1.4298 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 at 1.4290. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3929) will solidify this case. That would in turn indicate that fall from 1.4791 might be ready to resume. Retest of 1.3480 low should be seen next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4298 holds.

No change in USD/CAD's outlook and further decline is expected with 1.4067 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4298 at 1.3986 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3792 next. On the upside, however, break of 1.4067 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective rebound from 1.3480 has completed at 1.4298 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 at 1.4290. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3929) will solidify this case. That would in turn indicate that fall from 1.4791 might be ready to resume. Retest of 1.3480 low should be seen next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4298 holds.