USD/CAD’s medium term rise resumed last week by surging to as high as 1.3099 last week. 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level was taken out already and there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. USD/CAD should target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. On the downside, below 1.2984 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2802 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds.

In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we’ll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that’s completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3223; (P) 1.3242; (R1) 1.3259; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral first. Focus is now on 1.3209 support. Break will bring deeper decline to 1.3133 and possibly below. On the upside, above 1.3310 will target 1.3382 resistance first. Break will resume the whole rise from 1.3016 and target 1.3564 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4064; (P) 1.4168; (R1) 1.4273; More….

USD/CAD’s recovery from 1.3920 struggled to extend after hitting 1.4349 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.4349 will reaffirm that correction from 1.4667 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for retesting 1.4667/89 resistance zone. On the downside, below 1.3920 will extend the correction. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2523; (P) 1.2578; (R1) 1.2617; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Rebound from 1.2363 could still extend higher. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2742 resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.2519 minor support will bring retest of 1.2363 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4667. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2588 from 1.2880 at 1.2079.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2776; (P) 1.2806; (R1) 1.2823; More…

Outlook in USD/CAD is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 1.2762 support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, above 1.2846 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.2963 resistance first. Break there will resume the rise from 1.2005 to 1.3022 key medium term fibonacci level. Sustained break of 1.3022 will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2286 at 1.3228. However, break of 1.2762 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2604 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3180; (P) 1.3205; (R1) 1.3225; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation form 1.3171 is extending. As long as 1.3268 minor resistance holds, further decline is expected. Overall outlook is unchanged that corrective fall from 1.3382 is in the third leg and further decline is expected. On the downside, below 1.3171 will target 1.3133 and then 100% projection of 1.3382 to 1.3133 from 1.3347 at 1.3098 next. However, on the upside, above 1.3268 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3347/82 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2732; (P) 1.2789; (R1) 1.2822; More….

USD/CAD drops to as low as 1.2744 so far as decline from 1.3124 extends. The break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789 should confirm near term reversal, with head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% retracement at 1.2581 next. Also, noted that current development suggest rejection by 1.3065 fibonacci level. And deeper decline could be seen back to 1.2246 and below eventually. On the upside, break of 1.2942 is needed to confirm completion of the decline. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, outlooks is turned a bit mixed again. Strong support was seen from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. But there was no follow through buying above 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2592; (P) 1.2637; (R1) 1.2665; More….

Outlook in USD/CAD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. Stronger rebound through 1.2742 cannot be ruled out. But overall, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2880 resistance holds. Below 1.2574 minor support will bring retest of 1.2466 low first. Break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4667. However, sustained break of 1.2880 will argue that fall from 1.3389 has completed and bring stronger rise to 1.2994 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3047; (P) 1.3075; (R1) 1.3098; More….

USD/CAD’s retreat from 1.31214 extends lower today and reaches 1.3009 so far. Deeper fall could be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2986). But strong support should be seen above 1.2802 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 1.3124 will extend recent rally to 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2775; (P) 1.2866; (R1) 1.2950; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside at this point. A short term bottom was formed at 1.2668 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 day EMA and break will target 1.3172 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.2688 low is now needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, risk will be mildly on the upside for more correction.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2141; (P) 1.2172; (R1) 1.2215; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first, with focus on 1.2201 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest near term bullish reversal, after drawing support from 1.2048/61 cluster level. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.2363/2653 resistance zone. On the downside, however, sustained break of 1.2048/61 will carry larger bearish implications. Next near term target will be 161.8% projection of 1.2880 to 1.2363 from 1.2653 at 1.1816.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). We’d look for strong support from 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048 to bring rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2363 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound. Also, sustained break of 1.2061 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Despite edging higher to 1.3081, USD/CAD reversed from there and dropped sharply. Initial bias is now on the downside for 1.2883 support this week. Based on current momentum, this support will likely be taken out. In that case, whole decline from 1.3385 should resume for 50% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2723 next. On the upside, break of 1.3081 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, deeper decline will now be mildly in favor.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level. As long as it holds, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. However, sustained break of 1.2879 will dampen his bullish view and turn focus back to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2070; (P) 1.2099; (R1) 1.2155; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. We’d remain cautious on strong support from 1.2048/61 cluster level to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 1.2201 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound. However, sustained break of 1.2048/61 will carry larger bearish implications. Next near term target will be 161.8% projection of 1.2880 to 1.2363 from 1.2653 at 1.1816.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). We’d look for strong support from 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048 to bring rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2363 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound. Also, sustained break of 1.2061 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3283; (P) 1.3295; (R1) 1.3318; More…

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation from 1.3327 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained above 1.3190 support to bring another rise. On the upside, break of 1.3327 will resume the rise from 1.3042 to 1.3347/82 resistance zone. Firm break there will suggest completion of consolidation from 1.3664. However, break of 1.3190 will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3042 support.

In the bigger picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.364 at 1.3052 remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2554; (P) 1.2631; (R1) 1.2674; More….

USD/CAD’s decline from 1.3124 accelerated to as low as 1.2587 so far, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581. Intraday bias remains on the downside for deeper decline. The corrective rise from 1.2061 should have completed with three waves up to 1.3124. Break of 1.2581 will pave the way back to 1.2061/2246 support zone. On the upside, above 1.2687 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2814 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4689 (2016 high) to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3220; (P) 1.3260; (R1) 1.3285; More…

Upside momentum in USD/CAD is a bit unconvincing as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rise is expected as long as 1.3209 minor support holds, for 1.3382 resistance. Break will resume whole rise from 1.3016 and target 1.3564 resistance next. However, break of 1.3209 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3016 low.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3092; (P) 1.3143; (R1) 1.3180; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as fall from 1.3564 is in progress. Next target is 1.3052/68 cluster support. On the upside, however, break of 1.3229 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook stays neutral for now even though the case of bearish reversal is building up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3195; (P) 1.3232; (R1) 1.3262; More….

USD/CAD recovers notably today but stays below 1.3278 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.3278 will suggest that corrective fall from 1.3329 has completed at 1.3202 already. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3327/29 resistance zone. Decisive break there should confirm completion of consolidation pattern from 1.3664. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.3664 high. On the downside, break of 1.3202 will extend the correction. But downside should be contained above 1.3104 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3664 (2018 high) is seen as a corrective move that has probably completed. Rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 high. However, break of 1.3104 resistance turned support will extend the corrective with another fall through 1.2951 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4051; (P) 1.4117; (R1) 1.4171; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Overall outlook is unchanged that price actions from 1.4667 are forming a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.4182 will turn bias to the upside for 1.4349 resistance. Break there will target a test on 1.4667/89 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

USD/CAD’s up trend extended to as high as 1.3600 last week and showed acceleration as seen in daily MACD. Intraday bias remains on the upside at this point. Current rally should target 1.3685 fibonacci level next. Break there will target 1.3793 key medium term resistance. On the downside, below 1.3511 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But downside should be contained above 1.3322 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. At this point, the structure is not clearly impulsive yet. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping between 1.3685/3793. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2991) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high).

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.