Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2599; (P) 1.2669; (R1) 1.2710; More…

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.2891 resume by breaking 1.2592 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Such decline is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.2947. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.2492 support and possibly below. Overall, with 1.2421 support intact, rise from 1.2005 should still be in progress for another rise through 1.2947 at a later stage. Break of 1.2773 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2947 high.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2935; (P) 1.2972; (R1) 1.3000; More….

With 1.3045 minor support intact, further decline is still expected in USD/CAD. Sustained trading below 1.2968 cluster support, 61.8% retracement of 1.2460 to 1.3793 at 1.2969 will pave the way to retesting 1.2460 low. On the upside, above 1.3045 will indicate short term bottoming, possibly on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 1.3164/3346 resistance zone first, before staying another decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The second leg should have finished at 1.3793. Break of 1.2460 will tend such correction to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3088; (P) 1.3114; (R1) 1.3130; More…

USD/CAD drops notably today but stays above 1.3059 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral with focus on 1.3052/68 cluster support zone. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implication and target 1.2673 fibonacci level next. However, break of 1.3151 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound back to 1.3239/3432 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook stays neutral for now even though the case of bearish reversal is building up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3505; (P) 1.3559; (R1) 1.3598; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. The favored case is still that correction from 1.3976 has completed at 1.3224. Above 1.3699 will resume the rebound from there to 1.3807 resistance, and then retesting 1.3976 high. However, break of 1.3383 support will dampen this case and bring retest of 1.3224 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.2061 extended higher last week. The development argues that the pair has successfully defended 1.2048 fibonacci level. Further rise is expected this week as long as 1.2326 minor support holds, for 1.2777 resistance first. Decisive break there will target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 next. However, break of 1.2326 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.2061 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that USD/CAD has defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4869 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Break of 1.2777 will further affirm this bullish case. That is, larger up trend from 0.9406 is not completed. However, on the other hand, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall from 1.4689 is at least a medium term down trend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

In the longer term picture, the long term outlook is turned a bit mixed. As noted above, 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048 is a key level to determine whether up trend from 0.9056 (2007) has already completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2478; (P) 1.2521; (R1) 1.2556; More…

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.2963 resumes by breaking 1.2452 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current development argues that whole pattern from 1.2005 has completed with three waves to 1.2963. Below Further decline would be seen to 1.2286 support, possibly further to retest 1.2005 low. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.2569 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend form 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2986; (P) 1.3019; (R1) 1.3059; More…

With 1.3168 resistance intact, deeper decline is expected to USD/CAD. As noted before, corrective rise from 1.2460 should have completed at 1.3598 already, after hitting 50% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.3838. Fall from 1.3598 is seen as the third leg of the corrective fall from 1.4689. Further fall would be seen to retest 1.2460 low. On the upside, though, break of 1.3168 minor resistance will mix up the outlook again and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg could be completed at 1.3598 and fall from there is tentatively seen as the third leg. Break of 1.2460 will target 50% retracement of 0.9460 to 1.4689 at 1.2075 before completing the correction. In case of another rise, we’d look for reversal signal above 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

USD/CAD dropped to 1.3289 last week but drew support from 55 day EMA and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3371 minor resistance will suggest that pull back from 1.3467 has completed. That will also revive the bullish case that rise from 1.3068 is still in progress. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to 1.3467 resistance and above. However, break of 1.3289 will extend the decline from 1.3467 to 1.3068/3112 support zone.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3157) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is still prospect of extending the long term up trend through 1.4689.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2624; (P) 1.2656; (R1) 1.2682; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside. Decline from 1.3075 is in progress for 1.2401 support. . Firm break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.2005 has completed. Deeper fall would then be seen to retest this low. On the upside, above 1.2763 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2643; (P) 1.2710; (R1) 1.2746; More…

USD/CAD is staying in range of 1.2586/2899 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.2899 will target 1.2963 resistance first. Break there will target key long term fibonacci level at 1.3022. However, break of 1.2586 will bring retest of 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3532; (P) 1.3561; (R1) 1.3611; More….

USD/CAD is staying in range below 1.3602 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.3602 will resume the whole rally from 1.3091 to 1.3653 resistance first. Decisive break there will confirm that correction from 1.3976 has completed, a target a test on this high. However, break of 1.3495 will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective fall only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4309. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2829; (P) 1.2910; (R1) 1.2951; More…

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3222 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Deeper decline would be seen to 1.2818 support. Firm break there will bring deeper fall back to 1.2516 key support. On the upside, above 1.2988 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3222 instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3148; (P) 1.3176; (R1) 1.3202; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.3327 should extend to retest 1.3042 key support. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, above 1.3204 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3327 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.364 at 1.3052 remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3030; (P) 1.3061; (R1) 1.3087; More….

USD/CAD is staying in range of 1.3018/3143 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 1.3143 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 1.3052/68 cluster support should confirm medium term reversal. Deeper decline should then be seen to 1.2781 support next. Nevertheless, break of 1.3143 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the case of bearish reversal continues to build up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

USD/CAD edged higher to 1.2996 last week but formed a short term top there and retreated sharply. Further decline is mildly in favor in initially this week. But after all, we’re favoring the bullish case that rebound from 1.2061 hasn’t completed. Therefore, downside should be contained well above 1.2526 support and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.2859 will bring retest of 1.2996 first. However, firm break of 1.2526 will resume the fall from 1.3124 to 1.2246 support and likely below.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048

In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we’ll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that’s completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3233; (P) 1.3260; (R1) 1.3314; More…

USD/CAD retreats notably today but with 1.3177 minor support intact, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside. Pull back from 1.3382 should have completed at 1.3133. Rebound from 1.3016 is possibly resuming. Further rise would be seen to 1.3382 resistance first. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 1.3564 resistance next. However, break of 1.3177 will dampen this week and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3016 low.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2506; (P) 1.2544; (R1) 1.2593; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2421 temporary low. Further decline is expected with 1.2605 resistance intact. Below 1.2421 will resume the fall from 1.2805 to 1.2301 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.2805 at 1.2311). On the upside, break of 1.2605 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2805 high instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2559; (P) 1.2608; (R1) 1.2695; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.2706 resistance will indicate that pull back from 1.2947 has completed at 1.2492. That would also retain near term bullish after well defending 1.2421 support. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retest 1.2947 high. Break there will resume larger rise from 1.2005. However, below 1.2492 will resume the fall from 1.2947 to 1.2421 key near term structural support next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3948; (P) 1.3998; (R1) 1.4054; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. Corrective pattern from 1.4667 might extend but downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4140 resistance will indicate completion of the correction. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.4667. However, sustained break of 1.3762 will bring deeper fall to 1.3664 key support next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re still seeing rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) as resuming up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 (2016 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2641; (P) 1.2675; (R1) 1.2700; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current retreat. Further rise is expected as long as 1.2491 support holds. Above 1.2743 will resume the rise from 1.2286 to retest 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. However, break of 1.2491 will indicate that such rise has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.2286 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.