USDCHF Outlook

USD/CHF extended the pullback from 0.8041 short term top, but failed to sustain below 0.7877 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7874). With 4H MACD crossed above signal line, initial bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, sustained trading below 0.7874/7 will argue that the rise from 0.7603 has completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.7770 and below. Nevertheless, above 0.7925 minor resistance will turn turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8041.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8081) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7881; (P) 0.7903; (R1) 0.7927; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the downside as fall from 0.8041 is resuming. Sustained break of 0.7877 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7874) will argue that the rise from 0.7603 has completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.7770 and below. Nevertheless, above 0.7925 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8081) will affirm this case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7881; (P) 0.7903; (R1) 0.7927; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. With 0.7877 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7874) intact, rally from 0.7603 is expected to resume through 0.8041 later. However, decisive break of 0.7874/7 will argue that the rise has completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.7770 and below.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8081) will affirm this case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).