Wed, Jan 22, 2020 @ 04:33 GMT

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF rose to as high as 0.9977 last week and formed a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. Current development suggests that corrective pull back from 1.0037 has completed at 0.9734 already. And rise from 0.9420 is possibly resuming. Above 0.9977 will target 1.0037 high first. Break will extend the rise from 0.9420 to 61.8% projection of 0.9420 to 0.9734 from 1.0047 at 1.0115 next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.9881 support will dampen this immediate bullish case and turn bias to the downside for 0.9734 instead.

In the bigger picture, range trading continues between 0.9420/1.0342. At this point, 0.9420 appears to be a strong support level. Therefore, in case of decline attempt, we don’t expect a firm break of this level. Nonetheless, strong break of 1.0342 is also needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral.

In the long term picture, while upside momentum is unconvincing, with 0.9443 key support intact, rise from 0.7065 (2011 low) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 (2000 high) to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

USD/CHF Weekly Chart

USD/CHF Monthly Chart

USD/CHF Weekly Chart

USD/CHF Monthly Chart

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9997; (P) 1.0021; (R1) 1.0040; More

No change in USD/CHF’s outlook. It continues to lose upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 0.9982 minor support intact, further rally is still expected. Sustained trading above 1.0037 will pave the way to 1.0342 key resistance next. On the downside, though, below 0.9982 minor support will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. And, in that case, deeper retreat could be seen, possibly to trend line support (now at 0.9735) before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 0.9648 resistance turned support holds, even in case of pull back.

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USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF rose further to 1.0026 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 0.9848 support holds. Above 1.0026 will target 1.0067 resistance first. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of larger rise from 0.9186 and should target 1.0342 key resistance next. However, break of 0.9848 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9558; (P) 0.9621; (R1) 0.9654; More

USD/CHF’s decline resumed by taking out 0.9599 and reaches as low as 0.9582 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside as fall from 1.0067 would target 0.9523 fibonacci level. We’d look for bottoming sign there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9699 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming and target 0.9757 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9929; (P) 0.9949; (R1) 0.9974; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0037 is still in progress. We’d continue to expect downside to be contained above 0.9835 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. On the upside break of 1.0037 will resume whole rally from 0.9420. And with sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9420 at 0.9990, USD/CHF should then target a test on 1.0342 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could is a medium term up move and should target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. On the downside, break of 0.9736 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.9420. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in medium term.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0073; (P) 1.0107; (R1) 1.0136; More…..

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside for the moment. The rebound from 0.9860 has just resumed. Further rally would be seen to retest 1.0342 high. Based on neutral medium term outlook, we’d be cautious on topping at around 1.0342. On the downside, break of 0.9966 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rally will remain mildly in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we’ll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we’d expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9881; (P) 0.9920; (R1) 0.9952; More…..

USD/CHF’s fall from 1.0169 resumes by breaking 0.9881 and intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9860 support. Break will resume whole decline from 1.03420. In that case, next target will be 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9860 from 1.0169 at 0.9687 and possibly below. Meanwhile, break of 0.9959 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.0035).

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is staying in medium term sideway pattern between 0.9443/1.0342. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we’ll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of deeper fall, we’d expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9889; (P) 0.9904; (R1) 0.9920; More

USD/CHF recovers well ahead of 0.9851 support but stays in familiar range. Intraday bias remains neutral first and more sideway consolidation could be seen. On the upside, break of 0.9978 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0027 resistance first. Break there will resume whole rise form 0.9659 low. For now, downside of any down leg should be contained above 0.9841 support. But firm break there would pave the wave back to retest 0.9659 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral as USD/CHF is staying in range of 0.9659/1.0237. In any case, decisive break of 1.0237 is needed to indicate up trend resumption. Otherwise, more sideway trading would be seen with risk of another fall. Meanwhile, break of 0.9695 support will target 0.9541 support instead.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9690; (P) 0.9714; (R1) 0.9748; More…..

USD/CHF drops sharply today with focus on 0.9613 support. Decisive break there will extend the decline from 1.0342 and target 0.9548 support and below. We’d start to look for bottoming signal again as it approaches 0.9443 key support level. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9807 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.9807, however, will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level. However, sustained break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9 handle.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9788; (P) 0.9804; (R1) 0.9832; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as recovery from 0.9776 temporary low continues. As long as 0.9946 resistance holds, another fall is still expected. Below 0.9776 will extend the decline from 1.0037 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9420 to 1.0037 at 0.9656. We’ll look for bottoming again below 0.9656 and above 0.9420. On the upside, break of 0.9946 resistance will indicate that the decline from 1.0037 has completed and bring retest of this resistance.

In the bigger picture, range trading continues between 0.9420/1.0342. At this point, 0.9420 appears to be a strong support level. Therefore, in case of decline attempt, we don’t expect a firm break of this level. Nonetheless, strong break of 1.0342 is also needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0136; (P) 1.0168; (R1) 1.0209; More

USD/CHF dipped to 1.0126 but draw support from 1.0130 minor support and recovered quickly. Intraday bias remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. USD/CHF is staying in medium term rise from 0.9186 and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.0237 will resume larger up trend to 1.0342 key resistance. However, sustained break of 1.0130 will confirm short term topping. In that case, deeper pull back would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0058) and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.9186 is extending. Current rise should target 1.0342 resistance next. For now, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, until we see medium term upside acceleration. On the downside, break of 0.9879 support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9953; (P) 0.9988; (R1) 1.0039; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 1.0037 could extend. In case of another fall, downside should be contained above 0.9835 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. On the upside break of 1.0037 will resume whole rally from 0.9420. And with sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9420 at 0.9990, USD/CHF should then target a test on 1.0342 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could is a medium term up move and should target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. On the downside, break of 0.9736 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.9420. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in medium term.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9917; (P) 0.9956; (R1) 0.9981; More….

USD/CHF retreated sharply after hitting 0.9994 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Further rise is expected as long as 0.9905 support holds. We’re holding on to the view that corrective pull back from 1.0128 has completed at 0.9716 already. On the upside, break of 0.9994 will resume the rise from 0.9716 to retest 1.0128 high. However, break of 0.9905 will dampen this view and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF drew strong support from medium term trend line and rebounded. That suggests rise from 0.9186 is still in progress. Break of 0.9963 will affirm this bullish case. Further break of 1.0128 will confirm up trend resumption and target 1.0342 key resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9716 will dampen this bullish view and at least bring deeper fall to 0.9541 key support.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9649; (P) 0.9673; (R1) 0.9700; More

USD/CHF’s consolidation from 0.9613 is in progress and intraday bias remains neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.9762 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.9613 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 1.0237 to 0.9659 from 1.0023 at 0.9445. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9762 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 0.9803).

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral as USD/CHF is staying sideway trading started from 1.0342 (2016 high). Fall from 1.0237 is a leg inside the pattern and could target 0.9186 (2018 low). In case of another rise, break of 1.0237 is needed to indicate up trend resumption. Otherwise, more sideway trading would be seen with risk of another fall.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0173; (P) 1.0188; (R1) 1.0209; More

USD/CHF is staying in consolidation from 1.0237 and intraday bias stays neutral first. With 1.0130 support intact, further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 1.0237 will resume larger up trend to 1.0342 key resistance. However, sustained break of 1.0130 will confirm short term topping. In that case, deeper pull back would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0064) and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.9186 is extending. Current rise should target 1.0342 resistance next. For now, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, until we see medium term upside acceleration. On the downside, break of 0.9879 support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9544; (P) 0.9581; (R1) 0.9610; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.9537 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9427 first. Break of 0.9427 will resume whole decline from 1.3042. Meanwhile, considering it’s close to to 0.9443 key support, consolidation from 0.9427 might extend further. But still, break of 0.9772 resistance is needed to confirm near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish for another decline.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that 0.9443 key support (2016 low) could be taken out firmly as down trend form 1.0342 extends. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9772 resistance holds. Current down trend could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.9090. However, break of 0.9772 will indicate that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 again and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0052; (P) 1.0094; (R1) 1.0116; More…..

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. The lost of momentum after hitting 1.0145 is dampening the bullish case a bit. But still, as 1.0008 minor support holds, further rise is mildly in favor in the pair. Above 1.0145 will target a test on 1.0342 key resistance. Based on neutral medium term outlook, we’d be cautious on topping at around 1.0342. On the downside, break of 1.0008, however, will indicate completion of the rebound from 0.9860. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.9860.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we’ll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we’d expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9906; (P) 0.9928; (R1) 0.9947; More…..

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment and more consolidation could be seen above 0.9879 temporary low. As long as 1.0010 minor resistance holds, further decline is mildly in favor. On the downside, below 0.9879 will resume the fall from 1.0124 to 0.9716 key support. Nevertheless, break of 1.0010 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0124/28 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on medium term trend line (now at 0.9846). Decisive break there will argue that whole rise from 0.9186 has completed. Further break of 0.9716 will confirm reversal and target next support level at 0.9541. Nevertheless, there is still a chance that price action from 1.0128 are forming a consolidative pattern with fall from 1.0124 as third leg. If this is the case, stronger support should be seen between 0.9716 and the trend line to contain downside.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0004; (P) 1.0028; (R1) 1.0047; More….

USD/CHF’s fall from 1.0124 extends today and intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.9936 support. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, though, break of 1.0052 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0124 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF drew strong support from medium term trend line and rebounded. That suggests rise from 0.9186 is still in progress. Further break of 1.0128 will confirm up trend resumption and target 1.0342 key resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9926 support will be the first signal of medium term reversal and bring another test on the trend line.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9679; (P) 0.9701; (R1) 0.9716; More…..

USD/CHF reaches as low as 0.9651 so far today as the decline from 0.9981 accelerates. Intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained break of 161.8% projection of 1.0067 to 0.9866 from 0.9981 at 0.9656 will target 200% projection at 0.8579 next. On the upside, above 0.9714 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But outlook will now stay bearish as long as 0.9866 support turned resistance holds. And deeper fall will remain in favor even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 1.0067 will resume the rise to 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high).

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