USDCHF Outlook

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.7760 resumed last week and accelerated through 0.7906 resistance. The development suggests that fall from 0.8041 has completed as a correction to 0.7760. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 0.8041 first. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7867 minor support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, while a medium term bottom was formed at 0.7603, it's still early to call for bullish trend reversal. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213 holds, the larger down trend could still continue through 0.7603 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.7603 will argue that the trend has reversed and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

USD/CHF's rise from 0.7760 resumed by breaking through 0.7926 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Fall from 0.8041 should have completed at 0.7760. Further rally should be seen to retest 0.8041 next. On the downside, below 0.7867 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8028) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

USD/CHF edged higher to 0.7926 but retreated sharply from there. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 0.7926 will resume the rebound from 0.7760 to retest 0.8041. On the downside, below 0.7795 will bring deeper fall to 0.7760 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8028) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.